Nomadland Takes Best Picture, Director, Actress at Strangest Oscars in Recent Memory

 

Frances McDormand won two Oscars on Sunday night, for Best Actress and Best Picture.

Remember more than a year ago when Parasite won Best Picture and Best Director and the elation most of us felt? The joy of watching an Academy Awards ceremony end in a genuinely surprising and wonderful way? Well, take that feeling and imagine whatever its exact opposite is, and that approximates the feeling we are all left with after the 93rd Academy Awards ceremony.

And, that is a true bummer. Because in truth -- a couple documentary winners aside -- I could not and would not want to make an argument against virtually any of the night’s winners. From the big awards on down through the crafts, the awards went almost entirely to genuinely deserving and often inspiring winners.

Nomadland took home Best Picture, Chloe Zhao won Best Director, becoming just the second woman ever to win the award, and Frances McDormand joined elite company with her third Best Actress Oscar. McDormand, as a producer on Nomadland, also became the first actress in history to win Best Picture for a film in which she starred. It is an absolute feel-good story. It is a tremendously deserving film and an amazing accomplishment that will hold up well against the test of time.

Unfortunately, the win was taken from its sails in a truly unfortunate way, with the show’s producers making a tragic miscalculation as to the trajectory of the night. For the first time I can recall -- and I feel safe in saying the first time in history -- Best Picture was not presented as the final award of the night. Instead, we got Best Picture with Actor and Actress still to come.

Now, I get it. Take the little-seen Nomadland and give it its moment, then clear the stage for the two big-name performers to enjoy a moment in the sun to cap off the night. It does make a certain amount of emotional, storytelling sense. Add to this the betting favorite for Best Actor, Chadwick Boseman, whose widow would likely be accepting the award on his behalf, and one would have a truly satisfying ending to a night of celebrating the movies.

Then, Joaquin Phoenix read Anthony Hopkins’ name and all the air left the room. Hopkins was not in attendance, so we did not even get a final speech. I can think of any number of analogies, but they all mean disappointment. It was disappointing, and it didn’t have to be. Though I preferred Boseman, Hopkins is a deserving winner. His work in The Father is amazing, and it is a wonderful film. Had Hopkins won before a commercial break, then the show returned for a Nomadland triumph, that would have been a fine, if lowkey, ending to the night. This was nobody’s idea of a good time.

What makes it all the more unfortunate is that I genuinely loved this ceremony. It played like the exact kind of ceremony I have always asked for, focusing on the nominees, the winners, and the speeches. This is what it is like when we do not play the winners off for going on too long. This is what it is like when instead of clip package after montage after scripted comedy bit, we get people who sincerely love movies just talking about how much they love movies.

By moving the song performances -- for my money, the worst part of the show every year -- to the preshow and doing away with extraneous fluff, the ceremony was tighter and more focused than any I have ever seen. This is what I want from the Oscars. They simply made one experimental move too many. They out-thought themselves, and rather than having people talk about the winners and their great speeches and all the wonderful films there are still to see, they will get second-guessing and Monday morning quarterbacking.

Again, I appreciate the instinct, but picture for a moment an alternative universe in which the night ends thusly: Best Actor, then Best Actress, then Best Director, and finally Best Picture. You slide right by the absentee Hopkins to get to McDormand making history with her third Best Actress win. Then Zhao comes up as the first non-white woman to win Best Director. Then cap it all off with McDormand and Zhao’s Nomadland taking the top prize. That would have been a glorious ending to a show, and all the elements were in place.

Enough about that, though. As I said, I really enjoyed the show up until the ending, and I could see from a few brief check-ins on social media that my opinion will be a minority one. It usually is. No one ever likes the show, and the fact they did not like this show, which was unlike any past show, is simply proof that much of the audience is incapable of being satisfied. They want a mythical, imaginary perfect show that does not exist and could not.

I thought the best speech of the night belonged to Thomas Vinterberg, who paid tribute to his daughter who died tragically just days into filming Best International Feature winner Another Round. Vinterberg’s speech was honest, heartfelt, and emotional. It was also the exact kind of speech that would have been played off for time in years past. Not so this year, when winners were allowed to finish their speeches, basking in a moment that does not come along very often (again, unless you’re Frances McDormand).

The supporting winners came from the more predictable set, with Daniel Kaluuya and Yuh-jung Youn winning their respective categories. Emerald Fennell won Best Original Screenplay for Promising Young Woman, and Florian Zeller won a surprising and well deserved Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay for The Father.

Most things went as planned and at least fell within the margin of error for my predictions. The one true surprise that I did not see coming was the victory for Colette in the Best Documentary Short category. Looking back, perhaps I should have seen the appeal of a French resistance fighter visiting the concentration camp where her brother died. For me, however, it was the weakest of the nominees.

Speaking of the weakest nominees, My Octopus Teacher predictably won Best Documentary. I cannot state enough how much I hated this movie and how little this Oscars speech did to endear the film to me. It is an unfortunate look for the Documentary Branch of the Academy. If I were to take all 10 nominees in the two doc categories and rank them together, Colette and My Octopus teacher would be right there at the bottom. But, you know, 21 out of 23 ain’t bad.

I find myself now looking back with hope on the La La Land-Moonlight debacle. It seemed crazy at the time, and it was definitely a wild moment, and we all felt bad for the Moonlight team, which had had its moment of triumph forever tainted. But now, we just remember Moonlight winning Best Picture and waltzing into history as one of the most deserving winners in Academy history.

That is the point we will eventually reach with Nomadland. When the dust settles and the think pieces have been written and the Twitter comments have moved so far down the timeline we no longer think of them, that is when we will look back at the 93rd Oscar ceremony and remember that Nomadland, a great film, won Best Picture.

Oscars Sunday: Predictions, Analysis, and More

Happy Oscars Sunday, all! Even in a year as weird as this, I could not let an entire Academy Awards season pass without commentary. I have had a chance to see all of the major contenders, though I did miss Paul Greengrass’ four-time nominee News of the World. Spoiler for the below: I am not predicting News of the World to make good on any of those four nominations.

The run-up to this year’s Oscars ceremony has been strange indeed, with precursors done via Zoom and even a prerecorded Screen Actors Guild ceremony. I am excited to see what Steven Soderbergh and Co. have in store for this show, as they have tried to commit to a no-Zoom aesthetic. I am intrigued by the idea of a filmmaker as avant garde as Soderbergh taking on a show for one of the more historically stuffy organizations.

With the exception of the SAG Awards, where The Trial of the Chicago 7 triumphed, Chloé Zhao’s Nomadland has pretty much run roughshod over this awards season. It took the BAFTA, the Golden Globe, the Critics Choice, the DGA, and the Independent Spirit Award. It has been the frontrunner for months on end. At this point, the only thing that could maybe stand in its way is voter fatigue, boredom with watching the same movie win everything. That, however, seems unlikely.

Refreshingly, the leading acting categories are heavily in flux, particularly Best Actress, where one of the most wide-open races in years has broken out. A realistic case could be made for four of the five nominees, and a split potentially opens up the category to all five. The BAFTAs threw a wrench into the seemingly decided Best Actor race, which we will get to below. Meanwhile, the supporting categories do seem pretty locked up.

Overall, it is a fun year. There are fewer sure-things than usual, which makes for an unpredictable show. Maybe these are not the kind of big, crafts-heavy movies that can sometimes dominate, but there are no undeserving nominees among the bunch (with one major exception, which I will briefly rant about below). So, enjoy the show -- we have earned something fun and diverting after the year we have all had -- and check out these predictions to amaze and stun your friends.

Best Picture

Nominees: The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, Mank, Minari, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Will win: Nomadland

Should win: Nomadland

Should have been here: Small Axe (which was not eligible; so in lieu of that: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)

As mentioned above, Nomadland has been running away with this award for months now, and it would be a shock to see anything else up on the stage at the end of the night. Yes, The Trial of the Chicago 7 won the Screen Actors Guild’s top honor, and that usually portends good things. But, it would have to win Best Picture without a Director nomination (incredibly rare) and most likely without winning any other awards (ever rarer).

Mank is far and away the nominations leader, but it is more admirable than it is lovable -- I say that generally, as I did not care for the film at all. Minari could sneak in on sentiment. But, that’s about it. There would be no precedent for any other film but Nomadland at this point. Few films in recent memory have dominated the awards circuit like this one. Do not let anyone lead you astray. It’s Nomadland and it’s not close.

Best Director

Nominees: Thomas Vinterberg for Another Round, David Fincher for Mank, Lee Isaac Chung for Minari, Chloé Zhao for Nomadland, Emerald Fennell for Promising Young Woman

Will win: Chloé Zhao for Nomadland

Should win: Thomas Vinterberg for Another Round

Should have been here: Steve McQueen for Small Axe

Probably even more of a slam dunk than Picture, Chloé Zhao will win this award and become just the second woman ever to win Best Director, following in the footsteps of Kathryn Bigelow, who previously won more than a decade ago for The Hurt Locker. That leaves David Fincher a bridesmaid for the third time in his career. Thomas Vinterberg was one of the most pleasant surprises on nomination morning, but he will have to make do with the foreign language category, not a bad consolation prize.

Best Actress

Nominees: Viola Davis for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Frances McDormand for Nomadland, Vanessa Kirby for Pieces of a Woman, Carey Mulligan for Promising Young Woman, Andra Day for The US vs. Billie Holiday

Will win: Frances McDormand for Nomadland

Should win: Vanessa Kirby for Pieces of a Woman

Should have been here: Sidney Flanigan for Never Rarely Sometimes Always

From two slam dunks to one of the hardest-to-predict acting categories in recent memory. Here is the breakdown: Carey Mulligan won the Critics’ Choice Award and the Independent Spirit Award. Andra Day won the Golden Globe. Viola Davis won at SAG. Frances McDormand won the BAFTA. That leaves Vanessa Kirby on the outside looking in, which is a bummer because for my money, it is the best performance of the bunch in a tremendous film that deserved more recognition.

Day had a lot of heat coming off the Golden Globes but was unable to sustain it. Davis took over that heat with the SAG win, and there is definitely a desire to see her with a Best Actress trophy to go with her somewhat fraudulent Best Supporting Actress award (she was deserving for Fences, but it was a lead performance and she should have been awarded accordingly). Then, the Brits threw a wrench in everything by going with McDormand.

People want to see Mulligan with an Oscar. It would be nice to see her win. People like her. The Academy obviously appreciated Promising Young Woman. But the Critics’ Choice and the Spirit Awards just are not that strong as bellwethers. That would be BAFTA, which predicted the Olivia Colman upset for The Favourite and Tilda Swinton for Michael Clayton a number of years ago, along with a host of others. So, that is where I am throwing my money. It is anyone’s guess, but based on recent history, go with the BAFTA winner (I am going to contradict this in about two minutes, just so you know).

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees: Maria Bakalova for Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Glenn Close for Hillbilly Elegy, Olivia Colman for The Father, Amanda Seyfried for Mank, Yuh-jung Youn for Minari

Will win: Yuh-jung Youn for Minari

Should win: Maria Bakalova for Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Should have been here: Sharlene Whyte for Small Axe

Poor Glenn Close. This is her eighth nomination. No wins. I cannot say she would have been my choice any of the eight times she has been to the show, but it must sting a little. She has one of the great Hollywood careers, and she belongs in the conversation with Meryl Streep among the best of her generation. But Streep has three Oscars. Close has none. Just timing, I suppose. All that said, she could win on sentiment alone, though if the Academy really were that sentimental, they would have gone for her in The Wife, a vastly superior film and performance.

Yuh-jung Youn, however, seems to have this in the bag. The Korean legend absolutely steals every scene she is in in Minari, a film voters liked quite a bit more than Hillbilly Elegy, which helps. Youn is great, it would be a fun win, and all the precursors point to her victory. It will make for a very cool moment on the show. Usually, Supporting Actress is announced pretty early on, which means if Close somehow pulls it out, we could be in for an even more unpredictable night than we thought.

Best Actor

Nominees: Riz Ahmed for Sound of Metal, Chadwick Boseman for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Anthony Hopkins for The Father, Gary Oldman for Mank, Steven Yuen for Minari

Will win: Chadwick Boseman for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Should win: Chadwick Boseman for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Should have been here: Delroy Lindo for Da 5 Bloods

What a stacked category this is this year. It is unfortunate Riz Ahmed came up against such stiff competition because he does absolutely stunning work in Sound of Metal. His path to victory is the same as Adrian Brody’s in 2002: let the two juggernaut performances split the vote and slide up in the middle. Gary Oldman and Steven Yuen are also-rans who are also very good, though I may have substituted them for Delroy Lindo in Da 5 Bloods and Mads Mikkelson in Another Round.

Anyway, it comes down to two monumental performances that could not be more different. Chadwick Boseman, rest in peace, is towering, all bravado and showmanship. It is the best performance of the year and the perfect capper to an all-too-brief career. Anthony Hopkins is the more reserved, internal performance, but he is no less great. Boseman has nearly every award, but he did not get the BAFTA. That went to Hopkins.

So, here is where I contradict myself from above. Go with Boseman. Hopkins is a British acting legend, and BAFTA was always more likely to go that way. The last time the Academy and BAFTA did not line up was a similar situation, when Chiwetel Ejiofor triumphed for 12 Years a Slave and Oscar winner Matthew McConnaughey was not even nominated by BAFTA. So, stick with Boseman. He is a tremendous talent who was taken too soon, and more than anything, he deserves it.

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees: Sacha Baron Cohen for The Trial of the Chicago 7, Daniel Kaluuya for Judas and the Black Messiah, Leslie Odom for One Night in Miami, Paul Raci for Sound of Metal, LaKeith Stanfield for Judas and the Black Messiah

Will win: Daniel Kaluuya for Judas and the Black Messiah

Should win: Daniel Kaluuya for Judas and the Black Messiah

Should have been here: Bill Murray for On the Rocks

Let’s not get too cute here. It’s Daniel Kaluuya. He is wonderful in Judas and the Black Messiah. It is the kind of big, showy supporting role in a Best Picture nominee that usually wins this award. Sometimes, it’s not complicated. It is weird that LaKeith Stanfield is also nominated here. He is the lead of that film, but I guess weird stuff sometimes can happen. Paul Raci would be a deserving and fascinating winner for subtler, more grounded work, but that is less likely.

Best Original Screenplay

Nominees: Judas and the Black Messiah, Minari, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Will win: Promising Young Woman

Should win: Sound of Metal

Should have been here: Sorry We Missed You

If The Trial of the Chicago 7 is going to sneak up and steal Best Picture, this will be the first sign we get. That is not going to happen, but be on the lookout. This most likely comes down to Promising Young Woman vs. Minari, and Promising Young Woman has just been more successful with all of the early awards. It bears mentioning that Sound of Metal is a wonderfully written story and script, and in another year, it might have a better shot. Promising Young Woman, however, is what it is because of its daring, nervy script.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Nominees: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, The Father, Nomadland, One Night in Miami, The White Tiger

Will win: Nomadland

Should win: The Father

Should have been here: First Cow

The likely Best Picture winner is the most likely winner here, as well. That said, The Father is a tremendous feat of adaptation, with Florian Zeller bringing his own stageplay to the screen in a remarkable way. Also, shoutout to Last Cinema Standing favorite Ramin Bahrani on his first Oscar nomination for the excellent but too-little-seen The White Tiger.

Best Cinematography

Nominees: Judas and the Black Messiah, Mank, News of the World, Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Will win: Nomadland

Should win: Nomadland

Should have been here: First Cow

This probably comes down to the flashy black and white of Mank and the stunning open vistas of Nomadland. The cinematographers usually go ga-ga over great black-and-white photography but the Academy has been less susceptible to it over the years. Roma won in 2018, but before that, you have to go back to Schindler’s List, and Mank is no Schindler’s List. The photography on Nomadland is gorgeous, and the Best Picture heat likely carries it to the win here.

Best Editing

Nominees: The Father, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Will win: Nomadland

Should win: The Father

Should have been here: Another Round

Four excellent nominees in this category -- The Trial of the Chicago 7 feels out of place. Promising Young Woman is a thriller that relies on perfect pacing. Sound of Metal is tremendously cut. The Father is fully immersive filmmaking that turns the audience inside out over the course of a rather brief runtime. And, Nomadland is a sober, patient work of art. Any would be a great winner, but I am predicting a full Nomadland sweep.

Best Production Design

Nominees: The Father, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, News of the World, Tenet

Will win: Mank

Should win: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Should have been here: First Cow

From its leading 10 nominations, here is where I think Mank could finally triumph. Recreating old Hollywood glamour and creating sets that truly pop even in black and white is no easy feat, and the production team of Mank does it wonderfully. I am partial to the jazz stylings of Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, and the immersiveness I keep speaking of with The Father extends to its brilliant set designs. But, Mank has to win something, right?

Best Costume Design

Nominees: Emma, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, Mulan, Pinocchio

Will win: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Should win: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Should have been here: Promising Young Woman

All of these are right in the Academy’s wheelhouse -- showy period costumes. Voters like to see a lot of work, which would be Emma and Mulan, though war films tend to have trouble winning this category. Nobody saw Pinocchio, and the costumes are not top of the mind with Mank. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom is obviously well liked by the Academy, and the beautiful Jazz Age costumes are gorgeous to look at. I will absolutely not be surprised to see Emma win this, a la Marie Antoinette or other similarly well appointed films, but I will stick with Ma Rainey.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Nominees: Emma, Hillbilly Elegy, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, Pinocchio

Will win: Hillbilly Elegy

Should win: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Should have been here: Pieces of a Woman

I feel like I talk about this every year, but Makeup and Hairstyling tends to be one place where the Academy just does not mind rewarding a bad film with great makeup effects, which is as it should be. Not every award needs to reflect Best Picture. That Oscar-nominated performance by Glenn Close owes a large part of whatever success you find in it to the great makeup and hairstyling work. The makeup work on Viola Davis in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom is similarly impressive but just a touch less showy and, therefore, less likely to take home the award.

Best Visual Effects

Nominees: Love and Monsters, The Midnight Sky, Mulan, The One and Only Ivan, Tenet

Will win: Tenet

Should win: (Decline to state)

Should have been here: (Decline to state)

Christopher Nolan’s time-warping thriller seems like a safe bet here. His films have done well here with Interstellar and Inception both bring home this award. George Clooney’s The Midnight Sky would be a handsome winner. I did not catch Love and Monsters so I will not say what I think should win or what might have missed out. But when in doubt, go with the most effects. That is Tenet.

Best Sound

Nominees: Greyhound, Mank, News of the World, Soul, Sound of Metal

Will win: Sound of Metal

Should win: Sound of Metal

Should have been here: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Without trying to be glib about it, the category is right there in the title of the film. Sound of Metal is one of the most sonically immersive films you are ever likely to see, bringing you into the world of its deaf protagonist in a way that blends traditional and experimental sound design elements. A more classic winner in this category would be a big war epic like Greyhound, but that movie has no heat, and Sound of Metal is a Best Picture nominee that succeeds as well as it does because of its tremendous sound design.

Best Original Score

Nominees: Da 5 Bloods, Mank, Minari, News of the World, Soul

Will win: Soul

Should win: Da 5 Bloods

Should have been here: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Being that it is entirely about music and that is the kind of thing that usually turns voters’ heads, Soul is likely to coast to victory here, with Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, also nominated for Mank, defeating themselves. Terrance Blanchard should have won for Spike Lee’s BlackKklansman and he should win for this, as well. That didn’t happen and won’t happen, but one can dream. Emile Mosseri’s work on Minari is also quite laudable.

Best Original Song

Nominees: “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest, “Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah, “Seen” from The Life Ahead, “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami, “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7

Will win: “Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah

Should win: “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest

Should have been here: N/A

Ugh. This category. Every year. This could not be more bland and boring. Even “Husavik,” which theoretically should add some fun to the proceedings, is not the best song from Eurovision Song Contest. I would predict Diane Warren for “Seen,” but ironically, nobody has seen The Life Ahead (which is a shame, by the way, because it is actually a fine film). For betting purposes, narrow it down to the two Best Picture nominees in the lineup, then flip a coin. Judas and the Black Messiah is perhaps better loved, so I am going with that.

Best Film Not in the English Language

Nominees: Another Round, Better Days, Collective, The Man Who Sold His Skin, Quo Vadis, Aida?

Will win: Another Round

Should win: Another Round

Should have been here: N/A

Thomas Vinterberg’s Best Director nomination pretty much sews this one up for Another Round. It has the kind of broad support that is difficult to come by in this category. The spoiler would be Bosnian war drama Quo Vadis, Aida?, but that would qualify as a shocker. Collective is a tremendous documentary and deserves to win that category but runs second here to Vinterberg’s lovely humanist drama.

Best Documentary Feature

Nominees: Collective, Crip Camp, The Mole Agent, My Octopus Teacher, Time

Will win: My Octopus Teacher

Should win: Collective

Should have been here: Dick Johnson Is Dead

I promised I would have one rant. Here it is: What in heaven and hell is My Octopus Teacher doing here. Of the 56 feature and short films nominated this year, there is not one worse than My Octopus Teacher. Even more baffling, it seems to be in the lead for this award. Chalk it up to the Netflix effect, I suppose, though Crip Camp is also a Netflix production and has more art in its credits than the entire interminable runtime of My Octopus Teacher.

It is particularly galling as Collective is a masterpiece of reportage, Crip Camp is a brilliant historical document, Time is a wonderfully moving human story, and even The Mole Agent is a charming investigation of aging and usefulness. My Octopus Teacher is self-important garbage that would make a better TikTok video than a feature film. When it wins this, it will be one of the worst winners in this category’s history. Anything would be better. End of rant.

Best Animated Feature

Nominees: Onward, Over the Moon, Shaun the Sheep: Farmageddon, Soul, Wolfwalkers

Will win: Soul

Should win: (Decline to state)

Should have been here: (Decline to state)

The big hole in my viewing this year was Wolfwalkers. I don’t have AppleTV+ and I’m not going to get AppleTV+. That said, I have heard and read that it is the best among the nominees, so I will refrain from picking a “should win” here. Soul is going to win this by default, and I will be pleased to see Kemp Powers take home an award as Pixar’s first black director. Unfortunately, I don’t think Soul is even the best Pixar film nominated this year. I think Onward is the more emotionally complex film, and I am a big fan of the Shaun the Sheep movies.

Best Live Action Short

Nominees: Feeling Through, The Letter Room, The Present, Two Distant Strangers, White Eye

Will win: Two Distant Strangers

Should win: The Present

Two Distant Strangers is a very good film. It makes great use of its time loop conceit to emphasize its thematic points, and its story of police violence is sadly always relevant. I expect it to win, and it will be a deserving winner. However, The Present and White Eye would be my preferences, with each turning a critical lens on Israel’s handling of local affairs. Feeling Through is a nice film but its smaller story cannot stand up against the three previously mentioned. The Letter Room is the weakest of the bunch but carries with it the Hollywood clout of star Oscar Isaac.

Best Documentary Short

Nominees: Colette, A Concerto Is a Conversation, Do Not Split, Hunger Ward, A Love Song for Latasha

Will win: A Love Song for Latasha

Should win: A Love Song for Latasha

A devastating group of nominees, as usual, but an excellent slate nonetheless. The two most likely winners are Hunger Ward, which deals with child starvation in Yemen, and A Love Song for Latasha, which memorializes the teenage victim of a racially motivated shooting in Los Angeles. Hunger Ward is bleak and demoralizing, while Love Song finds more room for nuance in its tragic tale, making it the deeper of the two films. Like Two Distant Strangers, its story feels relevant and of the moment in ways that should shame us all.

Best Animated Short

Nominees: Burrow, Genius Loci, If Anything Happens I Love You, Opera, Yes-People

Will win: If Anything Happens I Love You

Should win: Opera

Should have been here: To: Gerard

This was an unusually weak group of Animated Short nominees, with one oddball (Yes-People), one sweet but light story (Burrow), one that works more as an impressive object than a fully realized film (Genius Loci), and two genuinely great shorts. If Anything Happens I Love You deals with the aftermath of a school shooting and is as emotionally devastating as anything nominated this year, feature or short. Opera is an experimental triumph that deftly explores the layers of corruption that govern our society. For the winner, go with the emotion.

Two quick side notes on the shorts: 1) I am predicting a Netflix sweep. The films are deserving and high quality, and their availability on Netflix means more voters will have seen them, instantly lending them frontrunner status; 2) the shorts are among my favorite things every Oscar season, and I hope to write more about this group in the coming days, even after the ceremony has passed us by.

Conclusion

Above, I have predicted a Nomadland sweep, 6 for 6. This is not necessarily wise, and I could be talked out of Best Actress, Best Editing, and Best Cinematography, though not at this late hour. I just do not see enough good arguments the other way.

Overall, with the number of categories that seem like toss-ups, it should be a fun show and a fun night. Check back after it’s all done for some analysis and, probably, a mea culpa from me for all the predictions I got wrong. Enjoy!