This may be the hardest year to predict the Academy Award winners in recent memory. The winds of the season have blown us every which way until leaving us kind of back where we started, wondering what the heck just happened.
Anora won the Palme d’Or at Cannes way back in May 2024. It was heralded as the front-runner pretty much instantly. Then, a whole lot happened. There was an Emilia Pérez flirtation that got a little ugly. Wicked looked incredibly strong with its huge box office haul and adoring fandom. The Brutalist, almost through brute force, willed its way into major contention. Even A Complete Unknown began to look like a potential meat-and-potatoes pick.
Ultimately, though, Sean Baker won the DGA and the WGA, and the film won the Producers Guild award on a preferential ballot. Only one film in history has failed to convert those three wins into a Best Picture triumph. That was Brokeback Mountain, which famously lost to SAG ensemble champion Crash. And, wouldn’t you know it: This year’s SAG ensemble champ is the greatest threat to Anora.
That would be Conclave, which if we’re being honest, is the kind of movie built in a lab to win the SAG ensemble prize. It did, however, also score big with the BAFTAs, a potential indicator of strong international support, which has been a major factor in recent Oscar years (see: Parasite).
Do I think Conclave has done enough to catch up? No, I don’t, particularly because director Edward Berger missed out on a Director nomination. I say Anora goes 2-for-2 in those top categories, but if The Brutalist director Brady Corbet sneaks up and takes Director, look out for a Conclave shocker.
In the acting races, while the supporting categories have been locked up for months, as tends to happen, the leading categories are shockingly close. While Mikey Madison would be the deserving winner and did surprise at BAFTA (remember when Olivia Colman won for The Favourite at BAFTA, suggesting she would beat Glenn Close to the Oscar), I think the Demi Moore narrative is too strong. She will win Best Actress.
Over in Best Actor, Adrian Brody dominated the entire season right up until Timothée Chalamet’s name was called at the SAG Awards and he went on to give one of the great awards speeches of our time. SAG usually means strength, but I don’t see Brody’s monumental work in the bold but flawed The Brutalist getting passed up. The third option is that they split the vote and a surprise third nominee comes right up through the middle. Interestingly, most theorize this is how Brody won his first Oscar for The Pianist in 2002, benefitting from split love for Jack Nicholson and Daniel Day-Lewis.
There is a ton of fun to be had in the below-the-line categories, as well, and I will post longer dives into those after this piece goes up. Apologies for not getting to everything this year, but it’s been a helluva time and I do my best. I look forward to dissecting the winners with you all after the big show.
*As mentioned, hard year to predict, so I’m going to say I feel more confident than ever in my 100 percent guarantee. I see no misses below.
Best Picture
Will win: Anora
Should win: Nickel Boys
Director
Will win: Sean Baker for Anora
Should win: Sean Baker for Anora
Actress
Will win: Demi Moore for The Substance
Should win: Mikey Madison for Anora
Actor
Will win: Adrian Brody for The Brutalist
Should win: Colman Domingo for Sing Sing
Supporting Actress
Will win: Zoe Saldana for Emilia Pérez
Should win: Ariana Grande for Wicked
Supporting Actor
Will win: Kieran Culkin for A Real Pain
Should win: Kieran Culkin for A Real Pain
Original Screenplay
Will win: A Real Pain
Should win: A Real Pain
Adapted Screenplay
Will win: Conclave
Should win: Nickel Boys
Cinematography
Will win: The Brutalist
Should win: Nosferatu
Editing
Will win: Anora
Should win: Conclave
Production Design
Will win: Wicked
Should win: Nosferatu
Costume Design
Will win: Wicked
Should win: Wicked
Makeup and Hairstyling
Will win: The Substance
Should win: A Different Man
Visual Effects
Will win: Dune: Part Two
Should win: Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Sound
Will win: Dune: Part Two
Should win: Dune: Part Two
Original Score
Will win: The Brutalist
Should win: Conclave
Original Song
Will win: “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez
Should win: “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez
Documentary Feature
Will win: No Other Land
Should win: No Other Land
Animated Feature
Will win: Flow
Should win: Flow
International Feature
Will win: Emilia Pérez
Should win: The Seed of the Sacred Fig
Documentary Short
Will win: I Am Ready, Warden
Should win: Incident
Animated Short
Will win: Wander to Wonder
Should win: Wander to Wonder
Live-Action Short
Will win: A Lien
Should win: A Lien
No comments:
Post a Comment