Countdown to the Oscars: Best Director

We’re counting down the days until the Academy Awards! We’ll be here, breaking down each of the 23 categories, talking a bit of history, and trying to figure out who is going to win all those gold statues. So check back throughout the next three weeks for Last Cinema Standing’s Countdown to the Oscars.

Best Director

The nominees are:

Martin McDonagh for The Banshees of Inisherin

Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert for Everything Everywhere All at Once

Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans

Todd Field for TÁR

Ruben Östlund for Triangle of Sadness

From 1960-1999, a span of 40 years, Best Picture and Best Director split just four times. Mike Nichols won Director for The Graduate in 1967, when In the Heat of the Night won Picture. Bob Fosse won Director in 1972 for Cabaret, beating out Francis Ford Coppola for his Best Picture-winning The Godfather. In 1981, Warren Beatty won Director for Reds, which lost Picture to Chariots of Fire. And, in 1989, Oliver Stone won his second directing Oscar for Born on the Fourth of July but lost Picture to the ever-controversial Driving Miss Daisy. That’s it. Four times in 40 years.

Since 2000, it has happened nine times, six in the past 10 years. I am not sure exactly what explains that shift. As we have discussed in previous years, splits tend to happen when there is a film voters admire but don’t love in the race, going up against a film they love but which maybe doesn’t display the same technical prowess. La La Land vs. Moonlight. The Revenant vs. Spotlight. The Power of the Dog vs. CODA, etc. This tends to hold pretty true.

They match when the well loved film can also boast some sterling crafts achievements, such as Birdman, The Shape of Water, and Nomadland. But, even then, movies don’t tend to win big anymore. The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King tied the all-time record with 11 Oscars in 2003. Since then, the highest totals came in 2008, when Slumdog Millionaire won eight awards, and 2009, when The Hurt Locker won six. Since 2012, no Best Picture winner has won more than four awards. That likely ends this year. Right now, the only question with Everything Everywhere All at Once is: How high can it go?

Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert for Everything Everywhere All at Once – Winning this award will make Kwan and Schinert the sixth- and eighth-youngest directing winners in history, respectively (Kwan is roughly eight months younger). Coincidentally, sandwiched between them at No. 7 on the list will be Lewis Milestone, who was 35 years, 36 days old when he won his second Best Director trophy for All Quiet on the Western Front. Kwan will be 35 years, 30 days old on Oscars Sunday. 

Milestone will remain the third-youngest winner, having won his first award just before his 34th birthday. Damien Chazelle sits at the top of that list, being roughly seven months younger than Norman Taurog was when he won for Skippy in 1931. Taurog held the record for 85 years before Chazelle came along with La La Land. Anyway, the Daniels. Usually, a Best Director Oscar gives you the freedom to do whatever you want the next time out, but if Swiss Army Man and Everything Everywhere All at Once don’t represent them doing whatever they want, then I can’t even imagine what it is they want to do. But, it sure will be interesting to see whatever it is.

Todd Field for TÁR – If you haven’t noticed, I am just so happy to have Todd Field back and directing movies again. It was a long wait between Little Children in 2006 and this, but it was worth it because Field came back with a masterpiece. It is an undeniable work, announcing its brilliance from the very beginning with a wild gambit: opening with the full credits, run in reverse. Instantly, we are made aware this will be unlike any movie we have ever seen.

Field then delivers on that promise over and over again. It’s not just the precision of the camerawork or the propulsive rhythm of the storytelling or the high-wire balancing act of character and tone. It is the way Field orchestrates all of them, conducting his film like Lydia Tár might conduct a symphony except that Field is very real and the results are plain as day for anyone to see. If you want to call this a comeback film, then it is the greatest comeback film ever made. Let’s just hope the next one comes a little quicker.

Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans – Spielberg is already part of a lot of Oscars history. For instance, with this nomination, his ninth, he ties Martin Scorsese for the second-most nominated director of all time, three behind William Wyler. An interesting tidbit I found: Spielberg was already on the list of 32 directors nominated in consecutive years when he achieved the feat for Raiders of the Lost Ark in 1981 and ET: The Extra-Terrestrial in 1982. Now, after being nominated last year for West Side Story and this year, he joins the list of eight directors who have achieved the feat twice or more.

I’ll give you that list, in addition to Spielberg: Wyler was nominated four years in a row from 1939-1942; John Ford (1939-1941) and John Huston (1950-1952) were each nominated in three consecutive years; Billy Wilder achieved the double three times; and Clarence Brown, Frank Capra, and Fred Zinneman did it twice. If we’re playing “one of these things is not like the other things,” I’ll admit I had never heard of Clarence Brown. He’s actually a six-time nominee, good for eighth all time. Of those, I have heard of but never seen National Velvet and The Yearling, and the other four I have never even heard of. A knowledge gap I’ll need to rectify.

As far as Spielberg and The Fabelmans, the master still has his fastball, as they say. No films look like Spielberg films. No one moves the camera like he does, with due credit to his longtime cinematographer Janusz Kamiński. There is something classical about the feel to everything he does, which suits this material well. I wouldn’t call it my favorite Spielberg film of recent vintage, but there is no mistaking what makes the legend a legend.

Martin McDonagh for The Banshees of Inisherin – McDonagh gets unfairly painted as only a writer in certain film circles. It is true that his screenplays are second to none, but it is not true that he lacks a visual flair or a directorial stamp. On the contrary, his work reminds me most of ‘70s Terrence Mallick or William Friedkin: gritty but gorgeous. Everything is purposeful but never feels overplanned. Camera movements flow effortlessly, motivated by plot and character.

Coming from the stage, as he does, he is of course an actors’ director. Between this and his previous film, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri, he has directed six different actors to nominations, garnering recognition in each of the four acting categories at the Oscars. That’s not an accident. The Banshees of Inisherin only works as well as it does because McDonagh is a smart, insightful director, in addition to being one of the great film writers of our time.

Ruben Östlund for Triangle of Sadness – This is what most Oscars watchers would call the wild card slot. It’s the fifth Best Director nominee that always feels like a one-for-us nod from the Directors Branch. In recent years, that has mostly meant recognition for foreign auteurs making critically acclaimed arthouse pictures. Last year, that would have been Ryusuke Hamaguchi for Drive My Car. In 2020, Thomas Vinterberg for Another Round. Bong Joon-ho won it all from that position in 2019 with Parasite. In 2018, we got Paweł Pawlikowski with Cold War.

This time around, it’s Östlund’s turn with his Best Picture-nominated satire Triangle of Sadness. It’s likely Östlund’s fans, myself included, are more excited for this nomination than the Swedish auteur himself is, considering he is coming off winning the Palme d’Or at Cannes for this very film. That was his second Palme in as many features, an even shorter list than the one we talked about above with Spielberg. Triangle of Sadness is an excellent film, wonderfully directed by a world cinema master at peak form. Gotta love the Directors Branch for bringing him to the show.

The final analysis

The Daniels are just the fifth directing pair in history to be nominated for Best Director at the Academy Awards. They will be the third pair to win, following Robert Wise and Jerome Robbins for West Side Story in 1961 and Joel and Ethan Coen for No Country for Old Men in 2007. 

I could pretend like there’s some competition in this race, but there’s not really even a whiff of it in the air. Like the Coen Brothers before them, there is every likelihood the Daniels will win three awards on the big night: Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay. It’s a helluva coming out party for a duo with just one previous feature on their resumé.

Will win: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert for Everything Everywhere All at Once

Should win: Todd Field for TÁR

Should have been here: Sarah Polley for Women Talking

A note about my favorite snub: There couldn’t be anything else here. Women Talking is the best film of the year, and apart from perhaps Todd Field’s work on Tár, it is also the best directed. From the color palette to the performances, to the way the camera soars in and out of certain sequences, Polley’s work is first in its class, and she deserved to join that all-too-short list of women nominated for Best Director.

Next time: Best Actor

Rise and Fall: The 10 Most Anticipated Movies of 2022

Cate Blanchett, in Todd Field's TAR.

There are a few basic truths when compiling a list of the most anticipated movies of the fall. Chief among these is that the director rules. Nothing is more exciting than a new feature from a brilliant filmmaker, and this year offers an embarrassment of riches. Next: All buzz is good buzz. Most of the films below have debuted at one film festival or another, and the first round of critical notices is in – some good, some bad. The good reviews just make me more excited, and the bad ones just make me curious. The anticipation remains.

Nevertheless, great filmmakers sometimes make terrible films or, worse, middling, unmemorable films. Looking back over my previous “Most Anticipated” lists, the movies run the gamut from my personal top 10 and Best Picture winners to pure trash and everywhere in between. That is what is so exciting about anticipation. Before the film starts rolling, it could be anything. There is virtually no chance the following 10 films will end up as my top 10 of the year and a similarly slim chance that all 10 will even be good. But, right now, we don’t know. There is only hope.

This year, more than most, my hopes are high for the final four months of the year to deliver great cinema. This is primarily due to the fact that the first eight months have been mostly disappointing, with just one or two movies I would consider truly great. We need greatness back on screen, and though not all of these movies are likely to deliver that, they are the best chance we’ve got.

Before we get to the list, five more films I am excited to see in the rest of 2022: Laura Poitras’ Golden Bear-winning documentary All the Beauty and the Bloodshed; Andrew Dominik’s already-controversial Marilyn Monroe biopic Blonde; Sam Mendes’ Olivia Colman-starring ode to movie theaters Empire of Light; Steven Spielberg’s memoir on film The Fablemans; and Rian Johnson’s whodunnit sequel Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery.

Now, the 10 movies I cannot wait to be front row, center for this fall:

10. The Woman King, directed by Gina Prince-Bythewood

Release date: September 16

Viola Davis is such a tremendous actress, able to lose herself completely in characters, that I think we sometimes forget what a badass she can be on screen. But, if you look at her filmography, it is not short on action movies, thrillers, and good old-fashioned shoot-’em-ups. Steve McQueen’s excellent heist thriller Widows has probably been the shining example of this – until now.

With The Woman King, Prince-Bythewood appears to be unlocking the final level of Viola Davis Action Star. Based on the true story of a fierce band of women warriors in 1800s coastal Africa, Davis’ ascendance to the action throne is just one reason to be excited for this film. Beyond that, Prince-Bythewood seems to be telling a story of empowerment, determinism, and the eternal struggle to preserve one’s homeland, and there is never a bad time for this type of story.

9. White Noise, directed by Noah Baumbach

Release date: November 25

For someone of his stature, Baumbach’s resumé is quite a bit more uneven than it might seem at first. For every masterpiece like Frances Ha and The Squid and the Whale, there is a misfire or mediocrity like The Meyerowitz Stories or Mr. Jealousy. However, when he is on his A-game, there are few outside of Alexander Payne who can match his acerbic wit and dry, cutting observations on modern life. That said, White Noise is one heck of a curveball for the writer-director.

Starring Adam Driver and Greta Gerwig, both on their fourth collaborations with the director, this is Baumbach’s first adaptation, and he has picked a doozy. The film is based on Don DeLillo’s novel of the same name, which sees a college professor and his family facing down a potentially cataclysmic event. For a director who has always focused on smaller stories of human foibles and the like, it will be fascinating to see what Baumbach does with a story this grand and this strange. 

8. Avatar: The Way of Water, directed by James Cameron

Release date: December 16

What is there to say? We have waited 13 years for this, the sequel to the biggest movie of all time. Cameron is the king of spectacle, and of course, the first trailers are awe-inspiring, introducing audiences to previously unexplored parts of Pandora. There is no reason to believe the director of The Terminator, Titanic, and Aliens will not pull off something truly special here, and yet, that is what many people seem to believe right now.

Cameron faced similar doubt before he launched Titanic, formerly the biggest movie of all time before he topped it with Avatar, which faced even greater doubt. He works on scales few filmmakers could even imagine, both from a budgetary and a story standpoint. He is synonymous with success, innovation, and entertainment. To doubt him is to risk being made the fool, and that is a risk I am unwilling to take. Give me my popcorn, show me to my seat, and bring it on.

7. Decision to Leave, directed by Park Chan-wook

Release date: October 14

Admittedly, I had been a bit of a Park novice until last year. Of course, I had seen Oldboy many years prior, and I loved The Handmaiden when I saw it in theaters, and I enjoyed his section of the Korean horror omnibus Three … Extremes. But, I had only scratched the surface. Last summer, I finally caught up with the first two parts of his vengeance trilogy – Sympathy for Mr. Vengeance and Sympathy for Lady Vengeance – as well as his unique take on the vampire mythos, Thirst.

Each film was impressive, surprising, and invigorating. I look forward to diving further into his filmography and that includes my excitement for his latest feature, which has already been submitted as the Korean entry for Best International Feature at this year’s Academy Awards. It received widespread acclaim when it premiered at this year’s Cannes Film Festival, and Park won his first best director award at the festival. 

6. Women Talking, directed by Sarah Polley

Release date: December 2

Polley’s last film was the excellent experimental documentary Stories We Tell, in which she examined the ways we alter and obscure our personal histories to suit the narratives we need to believe about our lives. It was raw, it was honest, and it was uncompromising. It seems likely all three of those words will be used to describe her newest feature, about a group of women in a religious colony who must reconcile their beliefs with the reality of their existence.

The subject matter is likely to be a major talking about around this film, which deals heavily with sexual assault, and it will almost certainly be a difficult sit for most audiences. But in her three previous features, Polley has proven herself uniquely attuned to the tone and purpose of her message, and there may be no working filmmaker more likely to treat the material with the care and consideration it deserves. All of this is not to mention a ludicrously stacked cast that includes Frances McDormand, Jessie Buckley, Claire Foy, Rooney Mara, and Ben Whishaw.

5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, directed by Ryan Coogler

Release date: November 11

The original Black Panther film was a cultural force almost without equal. It became one of the highest grossing films of all time, it breathed fresh life into a stale genre of films, and it spoke to and for a massive and massively underserved filmgoing audience. It would be asking too much to expect the sequel to reach those heights, but if anyone can make it happen, it would be Coogler.

I do hope he gets away from the superhero genre sooner rather than later, and his historic Best Picture Oscar nomination last year for Judas and the Black Messiah suggests he has his eyes firmly set on the kind of stories he wants to tell. I hope Wrong Answer, his long gestating film about the Atlanta test score scandal, comes to pass. And, I hope he has a blank check to make whatever he wants forever on the back of his MCU success. But for now, superheroes or not, whatever Coogler makes, I am 100 percent in.

4. Bardo (False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths), directed Alejandro G. Iñárritu

Release date: November 18

Iñárritu’s past two films (Birdman and The Revenant) topped this list in their respective years, and there is good reason for that. No one is making films as interesting or as inventive on the same kind of grand scale Iñárritu does. Early reports suggest this is no less grand and no less inventive. And, honestly, it is evidence of the special fall ahead of us that this film clocks in at just No. 4 on this list. 

It should be mentioned that those early reports out of multiple film festivals have been scathing, at least on the critical side of things. Critics have labeled it a mess, a slog, and a self-important, self-indulgent disaster. However, Iñárritu’s fellow filmmakers have sung his praises, with luminaries such as Chloé Zhao, Barry Jenkins, and Lulu Wang declaring it a masterpiece. There was a similar split between artists and critics on the receptions for Birdman and The Revenant, which likely explains why Iñárritu won Best Director for both films despite critical misgivings. For me, Iñárritu has earned the benefit of the doubt.

3. The Banshees of Inisherin, directed by Martin McDonagh

Release date: October 21

McDonagh took a lot of flack for his last feature, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri, and its handling of race in America. And though I liked that film immensely, it probably was ambitious for an Irish filmmaker, no matter how intelligent and talented, to try to tackle such thorny topics as police brutality and systemic racism in the rural US. With The Banshees of Inisherin, McDonagh is firmly in his own milieu.

Reuniting with In Bruges stars Colin Farrell and Brendan Gleeson, McDonagh’s latest has received glowing notices out of the festivals, with some hailing it as the writer-director’s finest achievement yet. Considering In Bruges remains one of my favorite films of all time and the first trailer suggests something altogether strange and unexpected, it would be hard to imagine being more excited for a film.

And yet, there are two more features to speak of:

2. Triangle of Sadness, directed by Ruben Östlund

Release date: October 7

Only 10 filmmakers in history have multiple Palmes d’Or. Just three of those filmmakers won for consecutive films. Billie August won for Pelle the Conqueror in 1988 and The Best Intentions in 1992. Michel Haneke won for The White Ribbon in 2009 and Amour in 2012. And now, Östlund has won his second in a row, following up 2017’s The Square with this year’s similarly geometrically concerned Triangle of Sadness. Including his 2014 international breakthrough Force Majeure, it is safe to say Östlund makes event movies for the arthouse crowd.

Taking aim directly at the moneyed elite and the implicit contradictions and hypocrisies of the modern economic system, Östlund’s film takes places on a doomed luxury cruiseliner. The setting and story are ripe with possibilities for skewering the upper classes, and Östlund is a filmmaker who has never shied away from that kind of skewering, whether it be with a scalpel or a broadsword and often both at the same time.

1. TÁR, directed by Todd Field

Release date: October 7

The man. The myth. The legend. 

By coincidence, many of the filmmakers on this list are returning from extended absences. Neither Östlund nor McDonagh has made a film in five years. It has been seven years for Iñárritu between The Revenant and Bardo. Polley had not made a feature for 10 years before Women Talking, and of course, Cameron has been working for 13 years on his Avatar sequel. But, none has been gone as long as Todd Field.

An actor best known for a supporting role in Stanley Kubrick’s Eyes Wide Shut, Field made his feature filmmaking debut in 2001 with the Best Picture-nominated In the Bedroom. He followed that up in 2006 with Little Children, to my mind, and without caveat or reservation, one of the finest films of the 21st century. In the 16 years since, he has not directed a single film, nor has he helmed an episode of television. He has simply been gone.

Sure, he has been attached to any number of intriguing projects over the years with big names such as Leonardo DiCaprio, Jonathan Franzen, Cormac McCarthy, and the like, but none has come to fruition. His explanation to the New York Times in an interview earlier this year: He often sets his sights on productions that are, by their very nature, difficult to get made. 

On paper, TÁR would also seem to be an inherently difficult-to-make project, yet here we are, less than a month away from the long-awaited return of one of my favorite filmmakers in the game. It does not hurt anticipation that the early reviews out of the festival circuit are raves or that star Cate Blanchett reportedly delivers the finest performance of a career filled with fine performances or that the exquisite trailer promises a psychological drama of the highest order. It all adds up to my most anticipated movie of the year – hell, of any year in a long time.

Fall of the House of Usher(s): 10 Most Anticipated Movies

Ruben Ostlund's Palme d'Or winner, The Square

Labor Day has passed, the film industry’s official end to summer, and this will go down as the worst summer box office in 25 years. Labor Day weekend was the worst on record. Grosses are way down, which means, given the steep rise in ticket prices, attendance has fallen off a cliff. Studios will fall all over themselves, trying to figure out where they went wrong, then come back next year and repeat the same mistakes. Analysts will present their theories, and some will be compelling, others less so. Ultimately, cause and effect will remain murky, and business will proceed as usual.

There certainly is not one answer to this problem, if we want to call it that, but if I may humbly suggest a possibility: This summer’s movies just were not that good. Audiences see good movies. This is a fact of moviegoing. People go to films with positive reviews and see movies their friends like. Should a movie tick both boxes, so much the better. Over the past four months or so, there has been a dearth of films that meet either category, let alone both.

As someone who spends much of his life in theaters, even I have had a hard time getting excited about any of this year’s crop of films thus far. I hope soon to take a deeper dive into the year so far – both the highs and lows – but suffice it to say I am ready for the fall movie season, when smart movies made by and for adults rule the day.

Last year’s list featured what would turn out to be some of the best films of the year, including Martin Scorsese’s Silence, which was the No. 1 most anticipated film and finished at No. 2 on our year-end best-of list. Beyond that, there were Jeff Nichols’ Loving (No. 3 most anticipated) and Ava DuVernay’s 13th (No. 8), which both earned honorable mentions. I have no doubt we will be talking more and more about the following films in the months ahead, so without further ado, Last Cinema Standing’s 10 Most Anticipated Movies of the Fall:

10. Downsizing, directed by Alexander Payne

Release date: Dec. 22

Payne really started to catch fire around Election in 1998. I was a little later to the party, going into Sideways blind and with no forewarning of the acerbic wit and naked humanity (and naked humans) I would witness. Since then, the director has refined his observational style and honed his ability to make us care about and root for even the schlubbiest schlubs. Here, he reteams with his Sideways and Election co-writer Jim Taylor to take on a fantastical science-fiction premise to which they will no doubt add a grounded sense of reality and frailty.

9. Suburbicon, directed by George Clooney

Release date: Oct. 27

A double-dose of Matt Damon to kick things off, this one looks like a wild ride indeed. If the trailer, particularly its final joke, gives you the impression of a latter-day Coen Brothers comedy – think Burn After Reading or Hail, Caesar! – there is a good reason for that. Joel and Ethan Coen share a writing credit with Clooney and his writing partner, Grant Heslov, on the script. While Clooney the director has tackled an array of filmmaking styles to varying degrees of success, this satirical take on suburban paranoia looks to be right in his wheelhouse. With the Coens jumping in, as well, expect this to be one you cannot miss.

8. Lady Bird, directed by Greta Gerwig

Release date: Nov. 10

Gerwig is the talented writer-actor behind films such as Mistress America and Frances Ha, and after appearing in three of last year’s best films – Jackie, 20th Century Women, and Weiner-Dog – she steps behind the camera with a chance to deliver one of this year’s best. This will be Gerwig’s first solo directorial effort – she co-directed the 2008 mumblecore comedy Nights and Weekends with Joe Swanberg – and she appears to be sticking firmly to what she knows, subbing in her Northern California hometown for her usual New York City milieu. With the promise of a great Saoirse Ronan performance in tow, Gerwig needs only to bring her consistently deft touch with human foibles to make this a sure-fire success.

7. Kings, directed by Deniz Gamze Ergüven

Release date: TBA (Toronto International Film Festival

Halle Berry, in Kings

Ergüven, the writer-director behind the brilliant coming-of-age protest film Mustang, would at first seem an odd choice for this material. A Turkish woman with a French education would not likely jump to the top of most people’s list to direct a film about the Rodney King riots, and indeed, there has been controversy around Ergüven taking on the project. However, she proved with her directorial debut Mustang she is capable of making an angry, powerful film about tearing down the structures that oppress and dehumanize. If that is not precisely what we want from a film about the L.A. Riots, then I don’t know for what it is we are looking.

6. Battle of the Sexes, directed by Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris

Release date: Sept. 22

Dayton and Faris do not work nearly often enough. The list of projects the husband-and-wife team have had fall through is extensive and storied. After breaking through with the influential independent hit Little Miss Sunshine in 2006, it took six years for them to return with the underappreciated romantic comedy deconstruction Ruby Sparks. It is now five years since that feature, and Battle of the Sexes arrives. The performances by Emma Stone and Steve Carell look to be stellar, the subject matter timely, and the approach dead-on. Dayton and Faris have been gone from cinemas too long. Let us hope they do not depart so long again.

5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, directed by Martin McDonagh

Release date: Nov. 10

Another director gone from multiplexes since 2012, McDonagh’s absence can be attributed mostly to the fact he is a rock star in the theater scene. The famed Irish playwright has written and directed just three feature films, but each is an event, and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri looks like his best chance yet for mainstream cinematic success. Although, if mainstream success were something McDonagh were interested in, I am quite certain he already would have achieved it. Operating in the darkest possible realms of comedy, as always, here McDonagh brings along Frances McDormand, Sam Rockwell, and Woody Harrelson for a journey that looks to be his most fun but most human yet.

4. Mother!, directed by Darren Aronofsky

Release date: Sept. 15

Not that she needs the help, but Jennifer Lawrence looks here to be getting the Black Swan treatment from Aronofsky, which is to say the director will run the “it” actress of her generation through the emotional wringer. Aronofsky’s most recent film, Noah, was troubled but unfairly maligned, mostly due to its impossibly high budget. This time, he scales back for the kind of psychological horror story that put him on the map in films such as Pi and Requiem for a Dream. Aronofsky is as much the stylist as ever, and Lawrence seems to be taking her gifts to another level. The combination of the two should produce nothing short of magic.

3. The Killing of a Sacred Deer, directed by Yorgos Lanthimos

Release date: Nov. 3

Greek auteur Lanthimos made the jump to English-language features with last year’s wondrous The Lobster, in which he teased out career-best work from Colin Farrell. Farrell now is joined by Nicole Kidman and Alicia Silverstone for a film that won the best screenplay award at this year’s Cannes Film Festival. Co-written by Lanthimos and his The Lobster collaborator Efthymis Filippou, The Killing of a Sacred Deer seems to take the director’s icy, detached view of human endeavors and marry it to the intense thriller we might expect from someone such as Michael Haneke – think Cache or Funny Games.

2. The Square, directed by Ruben Östlund

Release date: Oct. 27

As the winner of this year’s Palme d’Or at the Cannes Film Festival, The Square would already be high on my must-see list. That it comes from Östlund only raises its profile. The Swedish filmmaker’s previous effort, Force Majeure, is among the century’s best films, a landmark of emotional exploration and familial disintegration that should be watched and studied for years to come. If The Square, the satirical targets of which seem fitting for our current era, equals or even nears those heights, it will be a transcendent experience.

1. Wonder Wheel, directed by Woody Allen

Release date: Dec. 1

My favorite filmmaker directing my favorite actress, there could be no film more anticipated for me. Allen’s late-career output at this point is famous for its unevenness. For every Match Point, there is a Whatever Works. For every Blue Jasmine, there is a To Rome with Love. I am a fan even of much of the director’s most slapdash work, while still admitting to some of its haphazard construction. The reason: Despite it all, Allen still has the potential to dazzle – Vicky Cristina Barcelona and Midnight in Paris being just two recent examples.

In Wonder Wheel, Kate Winslet is said to deliver a career-topping performance. The New York Film Festival has selected it as the closing-night film, not an honor bestowed lightly. It is scheduled at the height of awards season, whereas much of Allen’s work lately has been offered up as a summer trifle. For these reasons and more, there could be no other film at the top of this list.

*A quick note: Paul Thomas Anderson’s new film surely would have made this list if I could be reasonably certain it would come out this year. I cannot be. As of now, it has no official title and a tentative release date at the end of December. Anderson can work as long as he wants to make the best possible film, and when it finally does come out – with what is sure to be another brilliant Daniel Day-Lewis performance, I will be first in line.