Monday, March 13, 2023

‘Everything’ comes up roses: Everything Everywhere All at Once completes historic sweep


As forecast, Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert’s comic sci-fi drama Everything Everywhere All at Once had an historic night at the 95th Academy Awards, winning seven statues, including Best Picture. It is the most awarded Best Picture winner since Slumdog Millionaire took home eight awards in 2008. The film also became just the third movie in history to win three acting awards, with Michelle Yeoh taking Best Actress and Ke Huy Quan and Jamie Lee Curtis winning their respective supporting categories. The Daniels, who also won for Original Screenplay, became just the third duo in history to win Best Director. The film also won Editing.


Brendan Fraser completed his comeback, winning Best Actor for The Whale and seeming genuinely overwhelmed by the moment. His speech, if we’re being quite honest, was a little rambling and incoherent at times, but it came from the heart, and there was no one watching who didn’t understand what he was feeling.


The loss for Austin Butler completed a shocking night for Elvis, which I and others had predicted would be a major winner. Instead, the Baz Luhrmann film was one of five Best Picture nominees to go home empty-handed, joining The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans, TAR, and Triangle of Sadness.


Another thing the Butler loss did was contribute to the end of the BAFTAs as an all-important bellwether. Long live the Screen Actors Guild. Every winner at the SAG Awards repeated at the Oscars this year, which meant not one winner at the BAFTAs pulled off the double. More shocking, perhaps, is that SAG and BAFTA did not align on a single award this year, but that’s a discussion for another time.


The one place BAFTA did end up having some predictive power was in the below-the-line categories, where Edward Berger’s All Quiet on the Western Front cleaned up. The powerful World War I adaptation won awards for Cinematography, Production Design, Original Score, and International Feature, making it the second-biggest winner of the night. Just an observation: The tradition is for the orchestra to play the score of the winning film to accompany the winners’ walk to the stage, and that now-famous three-note section of the All Quiet score sets quite the mood for an Academy Awards speech.


The Whale won for Makeup and Hairstyling, making it the only other multiple winner of the night, besides Everything Everywhere All at Once and All Quiet on the Western Front. The other below-the-line winners included Top Gun: Maverick for Sound, Avatar: The Way of Water for Visual Effects, and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever for Costume Design.


Original Song deservedly went to “Naatu Naatu” from RRR, and as predicted, the performance of that song was the high point of the ceremony. Kudos to the Academy for staging it well and putting it right in the middle of the show. It was a perfect burst of fun and energy at the exact moment the broadcast, which ran about 3 hours and 40 minutes, needed it.


Netflix had another fine night, with The Elephant Whisperers winning in Documentary Short, giving the streamer its third victory in seven years in that category. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio triumphed in Best Animated Feature for Netflix, as well, becoming just the second non-Disney/Pixar winner in the last 11 years and the second stop-motion winner ever. Along with the four wins for All Quiet on the Western Front, Netflix walked away with a healthy six Oscars.


But, no studio could touch indie upstart A24, which distributed both Everything Everywhere All at Once and The Whale, giving it a haul of nine awards. The studio swept Best Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, and all four acting awards. Since its inception, A24 has catered to the cool-kid crowd, and the victory for this weird little sci-fi movie will only enhance that reputation.


My favorite win of the night came in Adapted Screenplay for Sarah Polley’s superlative work on Women Talking. The victory was well deserved, and hopefully, Polley will get as much money and freedom as she wants to make the next thing. At the very least, the best movie of the year is an Oscar winner.


Another of the night’s great, if somber moments, came in Best Documentary, which went to Navalny, a portrait of the jailed Russian opposition leader. Director Daniel Roher brought Alexei Navalny’s family on stage and gave up the last portion of his speech to Navaly’s wife, Yulia, who preached a message of resilience and perseverance in the face of fascism and oppression.


All in all, the speeches were powerful and poignant. The back-to-back victories for Quan and Curtis to open the night got the tears flowing early. Though they were not my picks, it’s hard to begrudge either a moment in the sun. A sweet moment came when An Irish Goodbye won Best Live Action Short Film, and the filmmakers informed the crowd that it was co-star James Martin’s birthday. The whole crowd joined in singing “Happy Birthday.”


The show itself felt stripped down to mostly nuts and bolts, which was a refreshing change from the maximalism of last year. Jimmy Kimmel delivered a solid monologue at the top, nothing groundbreaking but charming enough to get laughs and prime the audience for an upbeat evening. The show was given over primarily to the awards and to speeches, which is how it should be. Only a couple folks were played off. One wishes that never had to happen, but less is better.


The only missteps came in promoting a trailer for the upcoming live-action Little Mermaid remake and in presenting a package dedicated to the 100-year anniversary of Warner Bros. that curiously included a number of MGM clips. Warner Bros. owns the MGM library now, but the company sure as hell had nothing to do with The Wizard of Oz or a number of other classics included in the package.


Regarding the trailer for The Little Mermaid, presented by stars Halle Bailey and Melissa McCarthy, yes, it was self-serving and tacky to show an ad for a Disney movie on an ABC broadcast. But, the folks getting up in arms about it seem to forget that the whole origin of this ceremony is to promote the great product Hollywood is selling. To suggest it undermines the integrity of the awards or any such thing is to misunderstand what everyone is gathered to do in the first place. You have the largest single audience of movie lovers you will ever get at one time – by all means, sell ‘em some movies.


While still off from pre-pandemic heights, this was the second straight year of growth in the ratings, which has to ease some minds at Disney/ABC. It’s half of where the numbers stood in 2015, but 18.7 million viewers is nothing to sneeze at for a live broadcast that isn’t the Super Bowl. One has to imagine it helped having two of the highest grossing movies of all time (Top Gun: Maverick and Avatar: The Way of Water) in contention for Best Picture. If the viewership creeps back up into the 20 millions next year, there may be hope of saving this thing after all.


And, that’s it. A lot of folks in the industry and media are attempting to paint the victory of Everything Everywhere All at Once as some kind of sea change for the Academy and the industry at large. We’re a long way off from that, even if it were to happen, and I’m not buying it. Remember the last time these folks awarded Best Picture to a “weird” movie was as recently as 2017, when The Shape of Water triumphed. The next year, the top prize went to a Driving Miss Daisy retread.


Progress comes in fits and starts, and awards seasons come in cycles that loop back around on themselves. This year’s progressive pick can easily lead to next year’s bafflingly regressive choice. The good news is The Shape of Water is at least 10 times as transgressive as Everything Everywhere All at Once, so maybe the pendulum won’t swing back as hard next year.


On a personal level, one frustrating year can’t sour my love of this show and its place in movie history. I’ve been pretty spoiled lately by Moonlight, Spotlight, Parasite, the aforementioned Shape of Water, and a bunch of other great winners. So, they get it wrong sometimes. If that bothered me, I’d have stopped tuning in after the second show I remember watching with any intent, when The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King swept everything. If that couldn’t stop me, nothing will. Let’s do it again next year.

Saturday, March 11, 2023

Totally Accurate, 100 Percent Guaranteed 2022 Academy Awards Predictions*


Alright, here we go. The final predictions. It’s shaping up to be an Everything Everywhere All at Once kind of night. I am predicting Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert’s film to pick up seven Academy Awards. That would make it the biggest winner since Slumdog Millionaire won eight in 2008. Of those, I’m picking it to become just the third movie in history to win three acting Oscars, joining A Streetcar Named Desire (1951) and Network (1976). That will be a real “one of these things is not like the other things” bit of trivia someday.


Beyond that, look for Elvis to win big, as well. Below, I have it winning just three awards, but even as I go to hit publish on this piece, I am waffling on Costume Design and Makeup and Hairstyling. If the Baz Luhrmann flick walks away with five awards, I won’t be surprised. Disappointed, sure, but not surprised. 


As far as the show itself, all indications are that it will be a more traditional version of the Oscars broadcast than the trainwreck we got last year, with the exception of the champagne-colored carpet replacing the famed red carpet. There are no fan votes this year. Doesn’t seem like we’ll get strange tributes to films on odd anniversaries. Jimmy Kimmel is back to host. I thought he did a fine job his two previous times hosting, so here’s hoping for a smoother ceremony all around.


And, that’s it. Click on each category below to go to an in-depth discussion of all the nominees, then check back here after the show for immediate reactions, and we’ll put this whole wild season to bed.


*If I’m being honest, this is the least sure of these predictions I have ever been, but it’s important to project an air of confidence.


Picture

Will win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Should win: Women Talking


Director

Will win: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert for Everything Everywhere All at Once

Should win: Todd Field for TÁR


Actress

Will win: Michelle Yeoh for Everything Everywhere All at Once

Should win: Cate Blanchett for TÁR


Actor

Will win: Austin Butler for Elvis

Should win: Colin Farrell for The Banshees of Inisherin


Supporting Actress

Will win: Jamie Lee Curtis for Everything Everywhere All at Once

Should win: Kerry Condon for The Banshees of Inisherin


Supporting Actor

Will win: Ke Huy Quan for Everything Everywhere All at Once

Should win: Barry Keoghan for The Banshees of Inisherin


Original Screenplay

Will win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Should win: TÁR


Adapted Screenplay

Will win: Women Talking

Should win: Women Talking


Cinematography

Will win: Elvis

Should win: BARDO, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths


Editing

Will win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Should win: The Banshees of Inisherin


Production Design

Will win: Elvis

Should win: Babylon


Costume Design

Will win: Babylon

Should win: Babylon


Makeup and Hairstyling

Will win: The Whale

Should win: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever


Visual Effects

Will win: Avatar: The Way of Water

Should win: Avatar: The Way of Water


Sound

Will win: Top Gun: Maverick

Should win: All Quiet on the Western Front


Original Song

Will win: “Naatu Naatu” from RRR

Should win: “Naatu Naatu” from RRR


Original Score

Will win: Babylon

Should win: All Quiet on the Western Front


International Feature

Will win: All Quiet on the Western Front

Should win: EO


Documentary Feature

Will win: Navalny

Should win: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed


Animated Feature

Will win: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Should win: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On


Live Action Short

Will win: Le Pupille

Should win: The Red Suitcase


Documentary Short

Will win: The Elephant Whisperers

Should win: Haulout


Animated Short

Will win: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse

Should win: Ice Merchants


Predicted big winners:

Everything Everywhere All At Once - 7

Elvis - 3

From Women Talking to Women Telling: All 54 Oscar nominees ranked


On March 13, 2022, I fired up Disney+ and watched the much-buzzed-about new Pixar movie, Turning Red. That was the first movie I saw from 2022 that would go on to be nominated for an Academy Award. Over the next 12 months, I would see the other 53, shorts included. Five days shy of a year after watching Turning Red, my wife and I went to the theater to see Irish International Feature nominee The Quiet Girl. We then came home that same night and rented Documentary Feature nominee A House Made of Splinters on Amazon, and that was the completion of the journey.


There are many more good movies nominated this year than bad ones, and the 10 to 15 best are truly exceptional films. The bottom 10 to 15 are where things start to drop off, but even within that, there are things to recommend. All in all, I am grateful for a year like this when Academy members get so much right.


So, here they are, all 54 nominees at the 2022 Academy Awards, ranked for your amusement:


1. Women Talking

2. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

3. The Banshees of Inisherin

4. TÁR

5. EO

6. Triangle of Sadness

7. BARDO, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths

8. All Quiet on the Western Front

9. Babylon

10. Fire of Love

11. Aftersun

12. Navalny

13. Ice Merchants

14. Haulout

15. The Quiet Girl

16. The Red Suitcase

17. All That Breathes

18. A House Made of Splinters

19. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

20. Living

21. Argentina, 1985

22. My Year of Dicks

23. Turning Red

24. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

25. An Irish Goodbye

26. Le Pupille

27. Close

28. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

29. How Do You Measure a Year?

30. The Fabelmans

31. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

32. The Elephant Whisperers

33. An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It

34. The Batman

35. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

36. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

37. The Martha Mitchell Effect

38. The Flying Sailor

39. RRR

40. Avatar: The Way of Water

41. The Whale

42. The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse

43. Top Gun: Maverick

44. Ivalu

45. Empire of Light

46. Everything Everywhere All at Once

47. Night Ride

48. Elvis

49. Causeway

50. Stranger at the Gate

51. To Leslie

52. The Sea Beast

53. Blonde

54. Tell It Like a Woman


Next time: Final predictions

Countdown to the Oscars: Best Picture


We’re counting down the days until the Academy Awards! We’ll be here, breaking down each of the 23 categories, talking a bit of history, and trying to figure out who is going to win all those gold statues. So check back throughout the next three weeks for Last Cinema Standing’s Countdown to the Oscars.


Best Picture


The nominees are:


All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Banshees of Inisherin

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

TÁR

Top Gun: Maverick

Triangle of Sadness

Women Talking


It has been a while since a single movie so bulldozed the competition all season as to take all the guesswork out of Best Picture. So long, in fact, that I have never covered a season like this in such depth. Honestly, it’s been kind of lame and exhausting. Now, I am aware enough of myself to recognize that if it were a film I loved running away with the top prize, I would probably enjoy it quite a bit more. I’m sure I could wax poetic all day every day about Women Talking or The Banshees of Inisherin or TÁR. The truth is I ran out of things to say about Everything Everywhere All at Once on Day 2.


I will refrain from writing a eulogy on the year in film that was 2022 until after the Academy Awards are over on Sunday, but I can’t help but feel a little sorry that a year that was so excellent – both overall and at the Oscars – will end up mostly defined by a film I found so dreadful. But, as I’ve said a number of times before, they don’t erase all the other movies on Monday. The great ones will still be around to be watched and shared and admired, no matter what wins Best Picture.


In order of least likely to most likely winner:


Avatar: The Way of Water – Kudos to James Cameron on continuing one of the most remarkable runs in film history. He made the highest grossing film of all time. Then, he did it again. Then, he took 13 years to make a sequel, delivering it into a film universe that had changed immensely since the last time he conquered the box office. Virtually no one thought this was a good idea or likely to work. How to follow up the biggest movie in the history of movies? Well, we doubt Cameron at our peril. Avatar: The Way of Water isn’t entirely successful, but it’s successful enough, and even that is a miracle.


Women Talking – This is the best film of 2022. As the years go on, more people will catch up to that realization. They will get a look at the artistry of the filmmaking, the poignancy of the writing, and the brilliance of the acting, and they will wonder how this got so overlooked by the Academy. The silver lining is that great films don’t go away. They are continuously discovered, passed along by film fans to other fans until they take their rightful place in the canon.


Triangle of Sadness – If Ruben Östlund’s superb satire were going to challenge for Best Picture, Dolly de Leon would have snuck into the lineup for Best Supporting Actress. It’s a shame. The success of the film hinges on her turn in the third act, and she carries that weight in a way few other actresses could. There is irony in the Academy nominating for Best Picture a film specifically meant to skewer the most visible of the membership, but they might have missed that. It’s okay. I’m sure Östlund is chuckling to himself.


Top Gun: Maverick – The movie that saved movies, of course it had to be nominated for Best Picture. But, something feels a little off about the nomination, doesn’t it? Why does the movie succeed? There are probably two big things: the stunningly choreographed action sequences and the star power of Tom Cruise. So, why were neither director Joseph Kosinski nor Cruise nominated for their work? If you think the movie is successful, those are the two people most responsible for its success. (Note: Cruise is nominated as a producer, but we’re talking about star power as the lead of the film.)


The Fabelmans – Steven Spielberg feels a little like Thanos at this point: He is inevitable. He has made nine films since 2011, and six of them have been nominated for Best Picture. No other modern filmmaker can boast a resumé like that. A couple of the nods have felt like obligations on the Academy’s part, like The Post or Bridge of Spies, two movies I like. Lincoln, on the other hand, was a major player in 2012. The Fabelmans feels somewhere in between those two spaces. It picked up a number of major nominations and it has admirers within the Academy, but it’s not threatening to win the big prize.


All Quiet on the Western Front – This is the dividing line. The five movies above are the also-rans, the “just happy to be here group.” The next five are the ones that would be battling it out for the win if it weren’t for the fact that the top film on the list is utterly dominant. Edward Berger’s film is a grand accomplishment and should instantly vault into the discussion of greatest war films of all time. It builds on the modern classics that came before it such as Saving Private Ryan and Letters from Iwo Jima to deliver a totally immersive experience. To paraphrase another filmmaker talking about his own war picture, this movie is not about war; it is war.


TÁR – In the Best Picture lineup this year, there are multiple war movies, a big-budget action-adventure flick, a multiverse spanning sci-fi mashup, and a biopic of one of the most famous figures of the 20th century. Despite that, Todd Field’s TÁR is the one that feels the most like a grand, epic achievement. It’s There Will Be Blood in an orchestra pit. It’s Barry Lyndon goes to the symphony. It has all the hallmarks of a movie that will be discussed and debated for the next 50 years. It doesn’t need to win Best Picture to leave a mark on cinema history. The mark has been made.


Elvis – I feel odd putting Elvis this high in the rankings when Baz Luhrmann failed to garner a Best Director nomination, but it’s been a weird season. As it stands, I expect Elvis to be the next big winner after Everything Everywhere All at Once, taking home anywhere from three to five statues. It would hardly be the first time a big, flashy movie with a showy lead performance wowed voters into showering it with awards. It’s just that in a year with this many tremendous films, it’s unfortunate to see the Academy falling in love with “most” over “best.”


The Banshees of Inisherin – In 2017, it felt like Martin McDonagh got really close to winning it all with Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri. This year, it feels like he got even closer with The Banshees of Inisherin. As mentioned before in this series, McDonagh has said he wants to focus on moviemaking as he moves forward in his career. More than likely, that means he will be back in this race again, and he will probably get that Best Picture statue someday. One hopes it is for work as formidable as this. Knowing McDonagh, I have no doubt.


Everything Everywhere All at Once – What more is there to say? This film premiered at SXSW on March 11, 2022. The world fell in love with it. One year and one day later, it will be crowned Best Picture of the year at the Academy Awards. Some started predicting it for the big prize at that premiere. Kudos to them. I thought it was wishful thinking, forecasting with the heart, not the head. But, damned if the whole film industry didn’t just embrace this thing with open arms in ways I have found truly shocking. I don’t get it. I probably won’t ever get it. But, I don’t need to get it. It’s happening.


The final analysis


Sometimes, weird things come to pass. When Crash won in 2005, it basically proved that we can never be 100 percent sure of anything. But, even Crash had some bit of precedent, if only in hindsight, in winning the SAG ensemble award. If we’re being honest, it also had a sizable voting bloc of homophobic, anti-Brokeback Mountain folks.


There is no precedent for anything other than Everything Everywhere All at Once winning Best Picture. It has won every important guild award – PGA, DGA, SAG, and the WGA. It has won virtually all of the below-the-line guild awards, too. It has all the important Oscar nominations – Director, multiple acting nominations, Screenplay, Editing, along with a few others just for show. The industry has fallen absolutely head over heels in love with this movie.


There is no conflict here. There’s no scrappy underdog like CODA or Parasite. There’s no one campaigning hard against it for political reasons, like the year the anti-Netflix crowd tanked Roma in favor of Green Book. There’s not even an interesting two-horse race like Birdman vs. Boyhood or Moonlight vs. La La Land. It’s just pure sweep all the way down the line.


This is like that run from 2010-2012 when The King’s Speech, The Artist, and Argo all just dominated from start to finish. Those were all years when the movie of the moment triumphed over the movie that would prove to have staying power. Proof, perhaps, that the Oscars are a snapshot of what the movie industry is feeling at any given time. Academy members aren’t voting based on how history will remember their choices. They’re voting for what feels good right now. Making history is incidental.


It really doesn’t matter if Everything Everywhere All at Once holds up the way Women Talking will or TÁR will. That’s not the point. The point is that for one week of voting in March 2023, a lot of people just really had a good time with this strange little confection. Like cheap champagne, it feels great while you’re drinking it. Worry about the hangover tomorrow.


Will win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Should win: Women Talking

Should have been here: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed


A note about my favorite snub: No documentary has ever been nominated for Best Picture. I’m not even sure what the Academy rules are anymore on films competing for both Best Documentary Feature and Best Picture. Doesn’t matter. I don’t feel any need to be beholden to their rules in dream casting my ballot. Laura Poitras’ All the Beauty and the Bloodshed is poignantly felt, deftly executed, and stirringly resonant. It is without question one of the 10 best films of the year and would absolutely be on my list of Best Picture nominees.


Next time: We’re going to rank all the nominated movies! That should be fun.