Countdown to the Oscars: It’s Winning Time

The weather is warming up here in Los Angeles. Baseball is back, with a full slate of spring training games underway today, which means the long march to the Braves breaking my heart again can begin. The Warriors are playing well. And, we’re two weeks away from the Academy Awards. All in all, I am in my element.

So, why can’t I shake the nagging feeling that I’m kind of bored? Mostly, I would say it’s because this Oscars “race” has felt over for months. Oppenheimer debuted in July to critical raves and an adoring public. The film is a behemoth, the kind of towering, historical epic so often lauded by the Academy in the past, but it also has a new-school approach and aesthetic spearheaded by director Christopher Nolan. 

It is a perfect blend of the past, present, and future of filmmaking, exactly the kind of movie that will hold up over the years and decades to come as a great Best Picture winner. But, it’s still not that much fun to watch a single film run roughshod over the competition all season. With the exception of Best Actress – which, itself, is starting to feel a tad preordained – all the top categories feel well and truly decided. There’s no intrigue.

Anyone waiting for a Moonlight- or Parasite-style shocker on March 10, I fear, is going to be sorely disappointed. Those were great, David vs. Goliath stories about the Little Movie That Could sneaking in at the last moment and taking down the giant. Could Oppenheimer be on a La La Land trajectory, winning everything all the way to the big show, then winning virtually every award on the night, only to fall short at the finish line? Sure. But, where’s the David that’s going to fire the rock?

With a few notable exceptions, it is basically impossible to win Best Picture without at least a Director nomination, so let’s confine our analysis to that group. The movies with a shot to win are: Oppenheimer, Killers of the Flower Moon, Anatomy of a Fall, The Zone of Interest, and Poor Things. The most intriguing of these is Lanthimos’ Poor Things, so let’s save that for last.

Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest are the non-English language nominees this year, and both are spectacular. But, if Anatomy of a Fall were going to win, there would be more heat behind star Sandra Hüller for Best Actress. Instead, she’s probably running a distant third in that category. The film will challenge for Original Screenplay, but that won’t be enough to carry it. The Zone of Interest, frankly, is just too darn arty. Some of the more old-school members of the Academy are likely to be turned off by the cold remove of director Jonathan Glazer’s approach. It’s a hard film to love, and you need love to win.

Then, there’s Killers of the Flower Moon. Poor, Marty. Martin Scorsese is carving himself a very interesting niche in Academy history. Only six movies ever have received 10-plus nominations without winning a single award. Two of those were directed by Scorsese: Gangs of New York and The Irishman. The way this season is going, Killers of the Flower Moon is looking down the barrel of becoming the seventh member of that club. Oh, well. It’s no less a masterpiece.

Finally, we have Poor Things, a big, bold comic sci-fi fantasy that is almost certain to pick up a number of below-the-line awards, as well as Best Actress for Emma Stone. One could imagine a scenario in which the combined support of the actors and craftspeople pushes this film near the top of a lot of ballots. But, that’s exactly the same support in the corner of Oppenheimer, which will win many crafts awards and more than likely two acting Oscars. I just don’t see an open lane for anything else to slide into.

Nolan’s epic will almost certainly march to the stage triumphantly and with little resistance. At least it’s a great movie, and though Nolan has never been to my taste, Oppenheimer is an undeniable achievement (give or take a drunken wife character with nothing to do). I can rest easy knowing the future holds a Best Picture win for Oppenheimer, but knowing the future sure isn’t much fun.

So, we’ll spend the next two weeks looking for fun in the other categories. It’s definitely there to be had. Keep checking this space each day for thoughts, analysis, and predictions leading up to the 96th Academy Awards.