Countdown to the Oscars: Best Picture

Welcome to this year’s edition of Last Cinema Standing’s Countdown to the Oscars, where we will break down each of the 23 categories, analyze the films, and make some guesses at their awards prospects.

Best Picture

The nominees are:

American Fiction

Anatomy of a Fall

Barbie

The Holdovers

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Past Lives

Poor Things

The Zone of Interest

For the second year in a row, the winner of the big prize feels like a foregone conclusion, and as I predicted last year, this time around, it doesn’t bother me so much. Because Oppenheimer is an excellent film and a worthy winner, even if it’s not the winner I’d pick necessarily, this whole process has mostly been a pleasant stroll through an excellent year at the movies.

This kind of Best Picture winner is becoming less and less common as the years go on: a big-budget historical epic from a marquee studio that prioritizes the theatrical experience and makes boatloads of money. The Academy Awards have been in indie-land for a while now, which has produced some excellent Best Picture winners but has perhaps diminished the award in the eyes of a public baffled by some of the more arty and outré choices. 

But, a movie like Oppenheimer is exactly the kind of movie the average moviegoer imagines when he thinks of a Best Picture winner. Over the years, people have complained a lot about the scourge of “Oscar bait,” but my impression is that most people don’t actually know what they mean when they say that. Sure, the occasional Judy will slip through the cracks, but by and large, the Academy Awards are far different today than they were even 20 years ago. 

While there is plenty of room for improvement, the stories and storytellers are more diverse, the styles of the nominated films are more daring, and the variety of films being rewarded is greater than ever. It’s a golden age for the gold standard of Hollywood filmmaking, and the industry is better off for it.

There is a pretty clear consensus on this year’s winner, but in an effort to give every nominee its moment in the sun, we will still rank them here from least likely to most likely to win:

Past Lives

This has become a more common occurrence since the Academy expanded its lineup to 10 nominees – the small, well written indie sliding into the Best Picture slate on the strength of members’ general love for the film. These films don’t usually show up in the crafts categories. Sometimes, they pick up an acting nomination or two. Sometimes, they don’t. Regardless of any of that, the filmmakers can always say they had a Best Picture nominee, and that’s not nothing.

American Fiction

If Cord Jefferson keeps making movies with this much wit and heart and intelligence, he’ll keep getting invited to the Oscars. American Fiction is exactly the kind of movie that benefits from this kind of awards attention. I know people who would never have sought it out but for hearing that it was in the mix for a couple Oscars. That’s the power of the Academy Awards. That’s also why it’s so important for the Academy to recognize different voices and amplify voices that otherwise would be drowned out by the din of a fast-moving industry. I look forward to whatever Jefferson makes next.

Maestro

It’s going to happen one of these days. Bradley Cooper is going to make his Oppenheimer, a film that is undeniable, that will finally carry him up onto the Oscars stage. He’ll probably win for directing, maybe even acting, too. That future is out there because Cooper is too talented and cares too much to stop making the art he loves. His movies really haven’t hit for me yet, but I’m never going to knock a filmmaker for following his passion.

Barbie

On paper, it’s pretty remarkable that Barbie made it to the dance at all. On paper, it’s a two-hour toy commercial produced by Mattel. On paper, it’s another chink in the armor that keeps art safe from the data-driven, finance-bro hell the rest of us find ourselves living in. But, that’s on paper. Greta Gerwig and Margot Robbie weren’t worried about how things might look on paper. They were concerned with bringing to life a smart, funny, insightful fantasy about how hard it is to be human, even if you’re a doll. It’s a beautiful statement and further proof that Gerwig is one of her generation’s finest filmmakers.

The Zone of Interest

There should be a place for something this experimental every year. Jonathan Glazer’s Holocaust drama looks different from any World War II movie you have ever seen. It sounds different. It feels different. Largely, that’s because Glazer just is a different kind of filmmaker, unafraid to take chances, to challenge the audience, and to reflect the worst of our shared history back at us. This is a monumental achievement that will be studied and discussed for years to come.

Anatomy of a Fall

From 1946-2010, just 10 films won the Palme d’Or at the Cannes Film Festival and got nominated for Best Picture. Of the past 12 Palme d’Or winners since 2011, it has happened five times. Anatomy of a Fall is the latest film to pull this impressive double act and further evidence of expanding tastes within the Academy and a willingness to look beyond American shores for great films. And, make no mistake: Justine Triet’s courtroom thriller is a great film. Simply put, it’s one of the best of the year.

Poor Things

Yorgos Lanthimos’ latest film might be one of the best examples of: Once you’re in the club, you’re in the club. How else to explain the love for a two-hour sci-fi fantasy about a woman’s sexual and spiritual awakening that features more explicit sex scenes than you can count on your two hands? The Academy embraced Lanthimos’ The Favourite back in 2018, itself more subversive than it might first appear, and now he’s in the club, which is great if it means he’s going to bring more weirdos like this along with him.

The Holdovers

This is the kind of quiet, generous movie that people can love easily, and it will appear near the top of a lot of ballots, if not right at the top. If Oppenheimer somehow doesn’t win a majority of votes from the first ballot, interesting possibilities open up, like everybody’s second-favorite film of the year possibly moving into pole position. I’m not saying that’s going to happen, but it’s far from the least likely scenario.

Killers of the Flower Moon

A favorite discussion type among film fans is: What director has the best four-film run? Or, what director started their career best? Or something similar. A rarely discussed topic is: What director ended his career on the best run? Unfortunately, even great directors have been known to toss out a few clunkers toward the ends of their careers. That’s why Quentin Tarantino has been adamant about retiring after 10 films. He wants to protect his legacy.

With that in mind, look at Scorsese’s four most recent films: Killers of the Flower Moon, The Irishman, Silence, and The Wolf of Wall Street. I want Scorsese to continue making movies forever, but if he announced his retirement tomorrow, there’s an argument to be made that this is the greatest closing chapter to a career ever. None of those movies will have won Best Picture, but Scorsese is beyond needing our validation. It’s his world. We’re just lucky to live in it.

Oppenheimer

Going back to 2018, Oppenheimer slots in quite nicely behind Parasite as the second-best winner of Best Picture in recent times. It’s a little tougher to challenge the winners from 2013-2017, when the Academy went on what I believe to be an all-timer run: 12 Years a Slave, Birdman, Spotlight, Moonlight, and The Shape of Water. Not a clunker among them and at least two among the greatest Best Picture winners of all time.

Anyway, it’s probably too early to start talking legacy. Let’s let Christopher Nolan and team celebrate their moment without viewing it through the lens of history. There will be plenty of time to talk about that later. For now, we can simply marvel at a movie that so captured the imagination of the public that for about a month there, we were all talking about J. Robert Oppenheimer (and Barbie, too). That’s what great movies do. They capture the imagination. And, that’s what great Best Picture winners do, too. Oppenheimer will be a great Best Picture winner.

Will win: Oppenheimer

Should win: Killers of the Flower Moon

Should have been here: All of Us Strangers

A note about my favorite snub: I named Andrew Haigh’s All of Us Strangers the best film of the year, so yes, I think it should be in the Best Picture lineup. Even when there was buzz around the actors and the screenplay, a nomination in the top category was always a long shot. That’s okay. Not every great film makes it to the big show. I hope more people check out this gem of a film anyway. It’s a life-changer.

Countdown to the Oscars: Best Actress

Welcome to this year’s edition of Last Cinema Standing’s Countdown to the Oscars, where we will break down each of the 23 categories, analyze the films, and make some guesses at their awards prospects.

Best Actress

The nominees are:

Annette Bening in Nyad

Lily Gladstone in Killers of the Flower Moon

Sandra Hüller in Anatomy of a Fall

Carey Mulligan in Maestro

Emma Stone in Poor Things

Annette Bening in Nyad

Bening is one of the more prominent cases of Oscars bridesmaid syndrome, having been nominated for an Academy Award now five times without a win over four consecutive decades. Nyad represents her first nomination since 2010 for The Kids Are All Right, though for my money, she was absolutely robbed for career-best work in Mike Mills’ 20th Century Women in 2016.

Diana Nyad is an interesting figure. She’s prickly and difficult and hard to love, and Bening makes the decision not to soften any of the edges, engaging directly with the kind of intensity and single-mindedness it would take to pull off the athletic feats she does. It’s actually an incredibly daring choice for the performer, which is not even to get into the physicality of the role. Of course, portraying a top-level athlete exacts an immense physical toll, and Bening went all the way there, as well. 

Lily Gladstone in Killers of the Flower Moon

It’s telling that in a Martin Scoresese picture also starring Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert De Niro, Gladstone is the standout. Her Mollie Kyle is the heart of the story, and Gladstone is the heart of the film. She demonstrates a remarkable stillness and reserve that contrasts perfectly with the weasley operator played by DiCaprio. It’s a star-making part that should put Gladstone in a position to do whatever she wants with her career.

Throughout this season and throughout the promotion of the film, she has spoken eloquently about the history of indigenous portrayals in Hollywood, the treatment of native peoples by the government, and the need for greater representation in all media. It cannot be easy to be thrust into the position of speaking for an entire population, but Gladstone has handled the responsibility with dignity and grace. Here’s hoping this marks a real turning point for indigenous actors in the industry.

Sandra Hüller in Anatomy of a Fall

From my piece on the best performances of 2023, where I placed Hüller’s performance at the top of the list: “I have heard this character called cold. Some have suggested she is a sociopath. These are simplistic readings of a woman who will not be pinned down so easily. The script by [Justine] Triet and her partner, Arthur Harari, is of course superb, but it is Hüller who makes every moment sing. The tension derives from the disconnect between what we see in this character, what we know about her, and what we can never know, and few actors are as capable of living in that kind of tension the way Hüller does here. Love her, hate her, that’s not the point. Because of Hüller, we understand her, and that is so much more interesting.”

Carey Mulligan in Maestro

I can’t say with any certainty that Bening will ever win one of these things, despite being a wonderfully talented performer. However, I feel fairly certain Mulligan, who is on a similar trajectory, will eventually get over the hump. This is Mulligan’s third career nomination, all for Best Actress. Her previous nods came for An Education in 2009, when she was just 24, and for Promising Young Woman in 2020.

Across dark dramas and thrillers like Wildlife, Shame, and Drive, she has proven herself one of the most adept performers in film at digging into the psychology of a character and making that inner life manifest on screen. She is one of my favorite actresses working today. I would not call Maestro one of her best roles, though she does a wonderful job with the material she is given. It is a highly technical role, calling for an incredibly specific accent as well as all manner of tics and mannerisms. But, the character is rarely given the opportunity to shine apart from her effect on the protagonist of the film.

Emma Stone in Poor Things

From my piece on the best performances of 2023, where I placed Stone at No. 2: “There is nothing studied about Stone’s take on Bella Baxter, which is important since Bella begins as a character unstudied in just about everything. The beauty of the performance comes in the joy of discovery. Bella lives in the here and now because as far as she knows, she has no past and the future is boundless. Stone makes us believe she is learning everything in the moment it comes to her – the freedom of dance, the pleasures of the flesh, the sting of inequality. … With Poor Things, the 35-year-old performer has planted her flag on the mountaintop. No doubt, there will be future mountains to climb and flags to plant.”

This is Stone’s fourth acting nomination at the Oscars. She is also a nominated producer on Poor Things, making her just the second woman ever nominated for both awards for the same film. She joins Frances McDormand, who won Best Actress and Best Picture for Nomadland in 2020. Stone has one previous win for Best Actress for La La Land in 2016. Her other prior nominations came for Supporting Actress in Birdman and The Favourite.

The final analysis

This is the only major race with some manner of intrigue, and it will be difficult to know exactly who has the edge here right up until the envelope is opened tomorrow night. It’s a battle between Gladstone and Stone, though of course, to call it a battle adds a competitive element that is fun for us but does not exist between the two performers. As the awards season has gone on, they have been nothing but gracious in interviews and thrilled for each other when winning awards, which has happened a lot.

At the Golden Globes, Stone won for best actress in a comedy, while Gladstone took home the drama award. Gladstone delivered a tremendously powerful speech that in most years would have sealed the victory for her. Then, Stone won the Critics Choice Award and the BAFTA, while Gladstone was not even nominated by the BAFTAs. The momentum seemed to be swinging that direction, but then Gladstone triumphed at the Screen Actors Guild Awards, and that flipped things back toward her.

So, at this stage, I would call it neck and neck, with a slight edge to Gladstone after the SAG win. The SAG winners have matched the Oscar winners 4-for-4 in each of the past two years. Last year, Brendan Fraser’s SAG win was how we knew he had pulled away from Austin Butler in Best Actor, while Jamie Lee Curtis’ win was the way we learned she was inching ahead of Angela Bassett in Supporting Actress. So, I’m predicting Gladstone here for what will be a historic win. She would be the first indigenous winner of Best Actress in Academy history, and it would be well deserved.

Will win: Lily Gladstone in Killers of the Flower Moon

Should win: Sandra Hüller in Anatomy of a Fall

Should have been here: Julianne Moore in May December

A note about my favorite snub: Moore was actually campaigned in Supporting Actress for this performance, but I don’t have to play that game. May December has three leading performances, and Moore gets my nod just ahead of Natalie Portman, who is also tremendous in the film. Moore’s performance is just so psychologically complex and difficult to pin down. We can never be sure how much the character knows or understands about her situation, but we always have the feeling that Moore knows, which is all we need to stay anchored in this shifty story. Once again, Moore proves she’s one of the best in the game.

Countdown to the Oscars: Best Actor

Welcome to this year’s edition of Last Cinema Standing’s Countdown to the Oscars, where we will break down each of the 23 categories, analyze the films, and make some guesses at their awards prospects.

Best Actor

The nominees are:

Bradley Cooper in Maestro

Colman Domingo in Rustin

Paul Giamatti in The Holdovers

Cillian Murphy in Oppenheimer

Jeffrey Wright in American Fiction

Bradley Cooper in Maestro

A quite silly narrative has built up around Cooper this season, which is that he is desperate for an Academy Award and that desperation is turning off voters. First of all, Cooper has: 1) directed back-to-back Best Picture nominees; 2) starred in eight films nominated for Best Picture; 3) been the lead of one of the most successful comedy franchises of all time (The Hangover trilogy); and 4) as Rocket Raccoon, been a key part of a wildly successful superhero trilogy and the larger universe around those movies. What I’m saying is that Cooper is not desperate for anything.

Furthermore, he wants an Oscar. So what? So does 90 percent of this town. The truly ridiculous part is that it’s not as if he has come out and said definitively how important it may or may not be to him to win one. Cynics simply prefer to read his genuine enthusiasm about the moviemaking process as desperation. But, even if he did just state outright that he wants a little gold statue, I would find that honesty refreshing. Bette Davis once said she’d like to have the record for most Oscars. I love it. More stars should be open with how they feel about winning an Oscar. Might help the show. Certainly couldn’t hurt it.

Cooper is great in a movie I found to be generally lacking, but there’s no lack of effort on his part. It’s all up there on the screen – the hours in the makeup chair, the months learning to conduct, the years to bring this story to theaters. Cooper works hard and he cares. If that’s embarrassing to a certain subset of folks, that sounds more like their problem than his. Cooper has been nominated for Best Actor twice before this for American Sniper and Silver Linings Playbook. He also has a Supporting Actor nod for American Hustle. Cooper’s going to win a statue someday, and that’s going to be a great day for him and for movies.

Colman Domingo in Rustin

From my piece on the best performances of 2023, where Domingo landed at No. 9: “Domingo has always been a chameleon in prominent supporting roles, whether as the menacing pimp in zola or as a beat-down jazz musician in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. At last, with Rustin, he gets a showcase for the full breadth of his talents. As civil rights hero Bayard Rustin, who begs, borrows, and steals to organize the 1963 March on Washington, Domingo never steps wrong. A Broadway star, Domingo knows how to deliver a big speech to the back row, but he is just as good in moments of quiet sadness as he struggles with his identity and a movement that wishes he would sit down and shut up.”

Paul Giamatti in The Holdovers

If I were to ask you how many Academy Award nominations Giamatti has, what number would you say? He’s been turning in fabulous work in popular, critically acclaimed films for nearly three decades now. It’s gotta be four or five or something like that, right? No. The Holdovers is just his second career nomination. The first came in 2006 for Best Supporting Actor for CInderella Man. Before and since then, until now, nothing, though his snub for Sideways remains one of the 21st century’s most baffling Oscars omissions.

The Holdovers is a perfect showcase for Giamatti, who specializes in sadsacks who learn a little something about themselves from the people in their lives. The teacher he plays in this movie opens his heart so gradually that by the time it happens, you can’t understand how you could have misjudged him. The heart, the soul, and the care that drive him, those things were there all along. He just needed a couple other lonely people to show him that they’re worth embracing and sharing. Just lovely work that could only have been done by Giamatti.

Cillian Murphy in Oppenheimer

Here’s some of what I wrote when I put Murphy at No. 3 on my list of the top performances of the year: “Every story beat, every thematic thread [director Christopher] Nolan is hoping to pull on, it’s all right there in Murphy’s sunken eyes and gaunt, angular visage. When you’ve got this, you don’t need anything else. The performance, however, is more than that thousand-yard stare you’ve seen a hundred times if you spend any time on the internet at all. It’s also in the frenetic energy Murphy brings to Oppenheimer’s moments of pure inspiration. It’s in the quiet confidence he displays as his world comes crashing down around him. It’s in every moment of the film. Oppenheimer is Nolan’s masterpiece because Oppenheimer is Murphy’s masterpiece.”

Jeffrey Wright in American Fiction

Wright’s Monk and Giamatti’s character in The Holdovers have a lot in common. They’re both teachers who have let their bitterness about the world get in the way of making genuine human connection. They’re both frustrated writers. And, they both just need to let a little love into their lives. The difference is a matter of tone. Where The Holdovers is a quiet dramedy, American Fiction is largely a broad satire. Each man calibrates his performance to the style of the film he’s in beautifully, and it’s no mistake that they have both landed nominations.

For Wright, this first Oscar nod feels like a long time coming. From the first time he practically jumped off the screen as the titular lead of Basquiat in 1996, it was clear Wright was a special talent. Hollywood has mostly limited him to supporting roles in franchises like The Hunger Games, the most recent James Bond flick, and the Robert Pattinson Batman movie. With American Fiction, the spotlight is fully on Wright, and he doesn’t waste a minute of it. We can hope this kicks off a string of great leading roles for the venerable performer.

The final analysis

After Giamatti won the Critics Choice Award and he and Murphy split the Golden Globes, it appeared as though we could be headed for a toss-up here. Then, Murphy won the BAFTA and the SAG award, Oppenheimer won for ensemble, and all the momentum just shifted to Murphy. I don’t know what Giamatti’s future at the Oscars holds. He sure seems like an actor people would like to give one of these statues to, but it’s not going to be this year. This time around, it’s Murphy’s to lose.

Will win: Cillian Murphy in Oppenheimer

Should win: Cillian Murphy in Oppenheimer

Should have been here: Andrew Scott in All of Us Strangers

A note about my favorite snub: I named Scott’s work in All of Us Strangers the best performance of the year, and it has only grown in my estimation since I wrote about it two months ago. It’s a performance that has the power to shatter you in one moment, then piece you back together in the next. Scott plays the pain and loneliness and longing about as well as anyone ever has, but Andrew Haigh’s film is ultimately about hope and letting love guide our lives. Scott hits these notes perfectly, as well, and there is never a time when we are not right there with the character, rooting for him through every beautiful, heartbreaking moment.

Countdown to the Oscars: Best Original Screenplay

Welcome to this year’s edition of Last Cinema Standing’s Countdown to the Oscars, where we will break down each of the 23 categories, analyze the films, and make some guesses at their awards prospects.

Best Original Screenplay

The nominees are:

Anatomy of a Fall

The Holdovers

Maestro

May December

Past Lives

Anatomy of a Fall

One of the most shocking movie moments of the year comes about midway through Anatomy of a Fall, and it’s probably not what you’re thinking. It’s the moment when the story is really picking up steam. A death has taken place. An investigation is getting underway. We’ve met all the major players. It feels like we’ve got all the momentum in the world. Then, a title appears on the screen: One year later. Just when you thought you had your footing, the rug is pulled from underneath you. It’s a remarkable piece of dramatic storytelling.

Co-writers Justine Triet and Arthur Harari have filled their script with these kinds of bold, brilliant structural choices. It is a high-wire act that keeps you completely enraptured from the first moment to the last. This screenplay is truly one of the marvels of the year.

The Holdovers

This is the first feature script to make it to the big screen for longtime television writer and producer David Hemingson, and what a coming-out party. The Holdovers is a story we’ve seen before about an uptight teacher and an unruly student who learn a lot from each other and become better people through their connection. However, Hemingson’s script is deeper and richer than just about any of the similar movies that have come before. These characters feel like fully realized people, and we come to care deeply about all of them.

Maestro

The performances in Maestro are lovely, and it’s a handsomely mounted production, but for me, the whole thing falls apart at the script. As constructed, this movie is a love story, and as much as it’s a very nice love story between two fascinating, intelligent, strong-willed artists, the romance is about the 10th most interesting thing about Leonard Bernstein’s life.

Now, I applaud any drama about an important historical figure that does not go the traditional cradle-to-grave biopic route. We need more movies that take chances, but this feels perhaps too clever by half. Bernstein lived one of the most interesting lives of the 20th century, and co-writers Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer yada-yada over great swathes of the most interesting stuff. It’s a big swing, and maybe it’s not fair to call it a complete miss. Let’s say it’s a foul tip.

Cooper has one previous screenplay nomination for his adaptation of A Star Is Born in 2018, while Singer previously won this category for co-writing Best Picture winner Spotlight with Tom McCarthy in 2015.

May December

This is a great script, but it’s a huge bummer that Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik are the film’s lone representatives at the Oscars. May December features three of the best performances of the year, a madcap score that I’ve written about in this series, and the fabulous work of director Todd Haynes. I suppose the story about the parasitic relationship between performers and their subjects hit a little too close to home for Academy members. Good on the writers for finding space for a movie that deserved a better awards fate than this.

Past Lives

Once this Oscars season is done and I can divorce myself from the hubbub around the awards race, I need to go back and give Celine Song’s indie darling another shot. I saw it in theaters when it first came out and just couldn’t connect with it. I found the characters largely passive and unlikeable. Something about the story just hit me in the wrong way. Song is obviously a talent, and I’m excited to give this movie another try down the line.

The final analysis

I’m going to predict The Holdovers here, but the surprise screenplay win by Anatomy of a Fall at the Golden Globes certainly gives me pause. The Academy clearly loves Triet’s film, and it sure seems like it should win something, and this would be the most likely place for a victory. Just twice this century has a foreign language film won this award, though large passages of Anatomy of a Fall are in English. Previous recent winners include Parasite in 2019 and Talk to Her in 2002. That said, The Holdovers is the safe, traditional bet. It’s an old-school movie done well, and sometimes, that’s all it takes.

Will win: The Holdovers

Should win: Anatomy of a Fall

Should have been here: Barbie

A note about my favorite snub: You know my feelings on this one. They can all be found right here. It’s hilarious. It’s smart. It’s poignant. In a word, it’s original. There’s a better than even chance Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach would have won this category had Barbie been properly placed by the Academy. But, it wasn’t, so they won’t. They’ll come for this thing one of these days. Mark my words.