Countdown to the Oscars: Best Supporting Actress

We’re counting down the days until the Academy Awards! We’ll be here, breaking down each of the 23 categories, talking a bit of history, and trying to figure out who is going to win all those gold statues. So check back throughout the next three weeks for Last Cinema Standing’s Countdown to the Oscars.

Best Supporting Actress

The nominees are:

Angela Bassett in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Hong Chau in The Whale

Kerry Condon in The Banshees of Inisherin

Jamie Lee Curtis in Everything Everywhere All at Once

Stephanie Hsu in Everything Everywhere All at Once

This is a mess this year – a big, beautiful, glorious mess. As someone trying to make predictions with at least a little authority, I hate it. As a fan of drama and surprises at the Academy Awards, I love it. I’d normally save this next bit for the final analysis section down below, but it’s just too juicy to wait. Here’s where we stand right now:

For a long time, Angela Bassett was the presumed frontrunner, splitting a lot of the critical accolades with Kerry Condon. But, Bassett is a legend, and there has been a feeling that this is her time. Then, she won the Golden Globe and everything seemed on track. However, Condon came along and won the BAFTA, which as you may know, is my favorite predictor of upsets in the acting categories. So, I was ready to go that way. 

But, the Screen Actors Guild Awards arrived and threw another curveball. Jamie Lee Curtis won. Like Bassett, Curtis is Hollywood royalty and has been doing this thing forever. It wouldn’t be beneath the SAG membership to give an award for a lifetime of achievements, but if that were the case, why Curtis and not Bassett? For what it’s worth, Stephanie Hsu just won the breakthrough performer award at the Independent Spirits, so she’s not out of it either.

The wild card in all of this is that Everything Everywhere All at Once peaked at exactly the right time. It won an unprecedented four SAG awards right as ballots were about to be sent out. It got the WGA and dominated the Indie Spirits with ballots in hand. It looks like a big, historic winner, and nobody doesn’t want to be on the side of that. The problem is: Will Hsu and Curtis split votes? I don’t know. Nobody knows, and it’s great.

Jamie Lee Curtis in Everything Everywhere All at Once – I like Curtis a lot. She was a major part of my childhood in movies like Halloween, My Girl, and House Arrest. She’s wonderful in Prom Night, Knives Out, and the Freaky Friday remake. She seems like a fun, funny presence in interviews and when giving speeches. All around, an easy person to root for. I don’t think she’s particularly good in this movie.

Now, she is saddled with playing a humorless IRS agent, a kind of cult enforcer, and the hot dog-fingered lover of Michelle Yeoh in one universe. It’s all pretty thankless. That said, she’s also overdoing it in every single one of those characters. One could say she is matching the tone of the film around her, and that would be correct, but it doesn’t make it good.

Kerry Condon in The Banshees of Inisherin – Sandwiched between Colin Farrell and Cate Blanchett at the top of my list of the performances of the year would be Kerry Condon as Siobhán. Condon is working in every part of the emotional spectrum, bringing dignity, grace, and common sense to the character who serves as the rational center of this wild story. Such characters can often be drag to play, but Condon’s wit and intelligence make Siobhán just as fascinating as the characters that orbit around her.

It’s not just in the big, showy moments we all saw in the trailer, although she nails those, too. Condon wows in the quiet, sad moments that might otherwise fly by under the radar but which add up to a whole character. The first time she heads down to the pub, intent on grabbing a sherry and being a part of the community, there is a spring in her step and a shy smile on her face. The way she turns down Dominick (Barry Keoghan) for a date is so gentle and honest. There are a dozen little moments like these throughout the film, and they never stop impressing each time they crop up.

Angela Bassett in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – Bassett knows how to command a room. Ryan Coogler is a magnificent director who knows how to give Bassett the space to shine, but that doesn’t work if Bassett ever gives less than her all, if she ever takes her foot off the gas once. Queen Ramonda must command the respect of every single person in the room at all times, and Bassett accomplishes this through sheer force of will.

A lot has been made of Bassett being the first acting nominee from the Marvel Cinematic Universe. I would argue it’s more remarkable that this recognition is coming for a performer playing a hero. Villains always tend to stand out in comic book movies. They get to have more fun. They’re bigger, bolder. That is why both Heath Ledger and Joaquin Phoenix won Oscars for playing the Joker and no one has ever been nominated for playing Batman. Heroes tend to be too one-note in comic book movies. They are stoic, determined, and representative of a moral certitude that may work in battling evil but doesn’t offer an actor much in the way of range. Bassett cuts through all of that to find depth and layers in a monarch beset on all sides by enemies and standing up to protect her family and her kingdom.

Stephanie Hsu in Everything Everywhere All at Once – Speaking of villains that get to go big, Hsu swings for the fences as this film’s central antagonist, Jobu Tupaki. In a different universe, we are meant to have sympathy for her as Joy Wang, daughter of a chilly, withholding mother. Hsu seems to have a perfect read on both characters, and for all the dumb things the movie makes her do, we at least believe in the characters underneath it all.

You might know Hsu from The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel on Amazon or from Marvel’s Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, but this performance was really the first time I took notice of her. Her strength, spirit, and intensity all jump off the screen, and I can’t wait to see what she does next.

Hong Chau in The Whale – I have not had a chance to see the Kelly Reichardt film Showing Up that premiered at the Cannes Film Festival last May. If, however, it is as good as I have heard, then Chau truly had one of the great years in recent memory. In addition to having Showing Up at Cannes, she had a major role in box-office hit The Menu and garnered this Oscar nomination for The Whale. And though The Whale has not been particularly loved by critics, Chau has received nothing but plaudits for her work.

She plays Liz, a kind of nurse/caretaker to Brendan Fraser’s morbidly obese Charlie. She is protective of him but never coddles him, always urging him to get to a hospital and get his life together. As the film goes on, we learn the depth of their connection, and Liz’s actions take on more meaning and nuance. Chau plays all of this beautifully, matching Fraser’s energy in scene after scene. When she breaks down, Chau makes us feel the wait of her burden and all the pain it is causing her.

The final analysis

Okay, so what are we doing? Let’s look at the recent history of each of the major awards bodies and see which is most vulnerable and which seems right on the money. We’ll use 2010 as a cutoff:

Golden Globes – They have matched with the Oscars nine of the past 12 years. The three they missed were 2020 when Youn Yuh-jung won the Oscar but was not even nominated at the Globes (Jodie Foster won for The Mauritanian in an all-time strange victory); 2015 when Alicia Vikander won the Oscar for The Danish Girl (the Globes went with Kate Winslet in Steve Jobs, who beat Vikander who was nominated for Ex Machina); and the historically close 2013 race when Jennifer Lawrence won the Globe but Lupita Nyong’o memorably won the Oscar.

Screen Actors Guild – The guild has matched the Oscars 11 of the past 12 years. The only miss came in 2018 when the Oscar went to Regina King, who was not nominated at the SAG Awards. The guild went with Emily Blunt for The Quiet Place, a performance that was not even nominated at the Academy Awards.

BAFTAs – The Brits are spottier. They have matched eight times in 12 years. They missed in 2010, going with Helena Bonham Carter for The King’s Speech (eventual Oscar winner Melissa Leo was not nominated). They missed that 2013 race, also going with Lawrence over Nyong’o. They matched the Globes in 2015, going with Winslet over Vikander, who was again nominated for Ex Machina, not The Danish Girl. And, in 2018, like at the SAG Awards, King was not nominated, clearing the way for Rachel Weisz in The Favorite.

Going back to the beginning of the SAG Awards in 1994, only once has a performer won the Oscar without winning at least one of these major awards first (that was Marcia Gay Harden for Pollock in 2000, a performance not even nominated anywhere but the Oscars). So, we can safely eliminate Hong Chau and Stephanie Hsu, though if Hsu wins on the wave of Everything Everywhere All at Once momentum, we shouldn’t be surprised.

The Golden Globes are a weirdo organization, grasping at straws to regain their relevance, and as great as Angela Bassett is, I think she’s running in third place. There may also be an element of MCU bias here, as well. It would be tough to imagine voters getting over that, though they’ve never minded rewarding actors playing the Joker in Batman movies.

So, Curtis or Condon? Well, over more than a decade, the SAG Awards have been the more accurate predictor in this category compared to the BAFTAs, so I’m forced to predict Jamie Lee Curtis. I’m at peace with that. If she wins, I will be right. If she loses to Condon, I will be happy to be wrong. If anything else happens, well, I was never going to get it anyway. That’s it. Curtis. Final answer.

Will win: Jamie Lee Curtis in Everything Everywhere All at Once

Should win: Kerry Condon in The Banshees of Inisherin

Should have been here: Claire Foy in Women Talking

A note about my favorite snub: I mentioned this in my Adapted Screenplay piece, but Women Talking should have been up for a lot more Oscars than the two for which it is nominated. That it received no acting nominations for an ensemble that could easily have made up the entirety of this category will forever baffle me. I could have gone with anyone from the cast in this spot, and Jessie Buckley in particular was brilliant, but if I have to pick one, it’s Claire Foy. Her speech about protecting her children is one of the great movie moments of the year and will stay with me long after this Oscars season has passed.

Next time: Best International Feature

Countdown to the Oscars: Best Original Song

We’re counting down the days until the Academy Awards! We’ll be here, breaking down each of the 23 categories, talking a bit of history, and trying to figure out who is going to win all those gold statues. So check back throughout the next three weeks for Last Cinema Standing’s Countdown to the Oscars.

Best Original Song

The nominees are:

“Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

“This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once

“Naatu Naatu” from RRR

“Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman

“Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick

You don’t need to hear me go on about this category again. Go back and read every previous installment of this series over the years if you want to know my complaints. At this point, it’s a plus if the Music Branch of the Academy doesn’t actively embarrass itself with its nominees. With one glaring, annual exception, this list accomplishes at least that.

“Naatu Naatu” – I can’t guarantee M.M. Keeravani’s and Chandrabose’s absolute banger of a pop song is going to win the Oscar, but I can guarantee that the three minutes it takes to perform will be the best three minutes of the ceremony. This ear worm is impossible not to move to, and it’s likely you have seen videos on social media of people dancing in the aisles to this song at packed screenings of the film. Get Hugh Jackman up on stage to perform this song with the film’s stars and open the show that way – boom, instant hit.

A critical darling, there was buzz around RRR for nominations up to and including Best Picture. None of that materialized, but “Naatu Naatu” is undeniable, and as the film’s only nomination, there’s a good chance fans of this wild ride will take the opportunity to reward it in the only way they can. For what it’s worth, it’s also the only song in the lineup that fits what I believe to be the spirit of the award, in that its performance is integral to the plot of the film. But, the Academy has never really cared about that.

“Lift Me Up” – What a good break for the producers of the Academy Awards. Hot off a much talked-about halftime performance at the Super Bowl, Rihanna has confirmed she will perform her closing credits song from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever at the Oscars. This, combined with the next song we’re going to talk about, is exactly what the Academy hopes for in this category: buzzy stars they can sell to advertisers and young people. Last year, they got Billie Eilish and Beyoncé. As replacements, they could do a lot worse than Rihanna and Lady Gaga (next one down). 

While I’m not a fan of closing credits songs in this category, “Lift Me Up” feels more necessary than most, coming as it does on the heels of a powerfully emotional entry in the Marvel Cinematic Universe. By the end of Ryan Coogler’s latest Black Panther movie, we are thrilled by what we have seen but mourning for our lost star, Chadwick Boseman. Rihanna’s song, penned with Coogler, composer Ludwig Göransson, and Tems, hits all the right notes, sending the audience out on a high.

“Hold My Hand” – Lady Gaga is quickly becoming a fixture at this ceremony. A three-time Song nominee and one-time winner already, Gaga has also performed as part of past tribute packages and just last year helped Liza Minnelli present the Best Picture Oscar to CODA. Due to Minnelli’s obviously declining health, the moment teetered on the brink of disaster, but Gaga’s grace and compassion under immense pressure saved the day and is now remembered as one of the more heartwarming moments in recent Oscars history.

As for “Hold My Hand,” it is exactly the kind of song you would imagine would accompany a Top Gun sequel in the year 2022. It is listenable, forgettable, and entirely too on the nose. Which is to say, it’s not that far removed from “Take My Breath Away,” the pop anthem from the original Top Gun that won this category in 1986. At the very least, the Academy will get its Gaga ratings bump once again.

“This Is a Life” – Exactly as oppressively whimsical and all over the map as the film in which it appears, this track from Everything Everywhere All at Once is notable mostly for the composers – Son Lux, Mitski, and David Byrne. Byrne is a previous Oscar winner for Best Original Score for The Last Emperor in 1987. Now, 35 years later, if this is what it takes for the man behind the Talking Heads to get another statue, so be it.

“Applause” – This is the Diane Warren song this year. Here is, word for word, exactly what I wrote about her nomination last year:

At a certain point, one really has to feel for the Music Branch – not me, I don’t have any sympathy for a branch that so consistently gets this category wrong. But, members really, really love Diane Warren, and they seem positively desperate to get her an Oscar. This is the fifth consecutive year in which Warren has received a nomination and seventh out of the previous eight. She has 12 total nominations and no wins. She probably could have won for “I Don’t Want to Miss a Thing” from Armageddon or “Nothing’s Gonna Stop Us Now” from Mannequin, but she didn’t. So, here we are in an endless cycle of nominating not very good work every year just to try to get her over that hill.

This brings us to “Somehow You Do,” which not only is not very good, but it is actually quite bad. More than that, it is part of a pretty bad movie. Ironically, the song’s lack of subtlety is kind of a perfect fit for the generically somber addiction drama that is Four Good Days. Once again, Warren will be a bridesmaid, and even if I can muster no sympathy for the Music Branch, I do feel a little bad for Warren having to get dressed up every damn year just to lose an award.

Let me update the numbers for you: This is six consecutive years, eight out of nine, and 13 total nominations with no competitive wins. She does have an Oscar now, as this very year she was the recipient of an honorary award. That did not satisfy her peers, who are demanding she be voted queen for a day at the big show. It ain’t gonna happen. I haven’t watched Tell It Like a Woman. I probably won’t. But, I listened to this song, and once again, it was quite bad. There’s probably nothing to be done about this situation, so perhaps the Academy would be best off just reserving a couple seats for Warren every year.

The final analysis

Anything could win, except the Warren song. There is not really a clear frontrunner. There is no Bond song nominated this year for the Academy to vote blindly for. No Pixar or Disney movie with a catchy pop hit like “Remember Me” (Coco) or “Let It Go” (Frozen). No musical with a single standout tune like “City of Stars” (La La Land) or “Shallow” (A Star Is Born). Just a bunch of really famous people writing popular songs for big hit movies (and Diane Warren).

I am going to place my chips on “Naatu Naatu” because that is what’s most fun to do and because I think the love for RRR is real and needs somewhere to go. But if Rihanna ends up holding an Oscar – which would be a cool but strange win for Coogler, as well – or Lady Gaga wins another, I won’t be the least bit surprised. If the Best Picture heat for Everything Everywhere All at Once carries the day, that wouldn’t be so out of the ordinary either. For now, let’s bet with our dancing shoes on.

Will win: “Naatu Naatu” from RRR

Should win: “Naatu Naatu” from RRR

Should have been here: “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

A note about my favorite snub: This is actually the animated musical that deserved recognition in this category, but because it is not from Disney or Pixar, it did not get the same attention. Now, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio is a Netflix production, so no one is crying over lack of promotion, and it will likely win Best Animated Feature, but this jaunty little number that plays a couple of times in the film to great effect deserved to be here.

Next time: Animated Feature

Countdown to the Oscars: Best Costume Design

We’re counting down the days until the Academy Awards! We’ll be here, breaking down each of the 23 categories, talking a bit of history, and trying to figure out who is going to win all those gold statues. So check back throughout the next three weeks for Last Cinema Standing’s Countdown to the Oscars.

Best Costume Design

The nominees are:

Babylon

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

My kingdom for a contemporary nominee. Now, technically both Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Everything Everywhere All at Once are set in the present day, but both are heavily ensconced in the science-fiction and fantasy worlds. I am talking about the millennial-chic ensembles of the Bodies, Bodies, Bodies cast or the sunny island duds of the Glass Onion crew or even the stark formalism of the TÁR designs. Any would be worthy, but alas, the Costume Designers Branch has bequeathed us with the usual set of period and fantasy nominees.

At least these nominees are pretty fun. None of the traditional royal court frocks that while fairly deserving, often litter this category and push out more interesting and eclectic work. Not so this year, as the branch has seen fit to take us from late 1920s Hollywood to 1950s London and France and back to ‘60 and ‘70s America and finally into fantastical parallel universes. Honestly, it is the most fun this category has been in a long time, maybe since 1991, when Bugsy beat out the varied likes of The Addams Family, Barton Fink, and Hook.

Babylon – What a big, bright, bold, beautiful swing by director Damien Chazelle and costume designer Mary Zophres. These lavish threads bring 1920s Hollywood into full color in ways we have rarely seen, particularly with several of the scene-stealing fashions worn by Margot Robbie’s lead character. That red dress on the posters by itself should be enough to etch this film’s costumes in the memories of filmgoers, but the devil, as always, is in the details. And in this film, Zophres fills the screen with details. Every design is meticulous from the leads on down to the background performers in the afterparty from hell.

This is Zophres’ third collaboration with Chazelle after La La Land and First Man. She is probably best known for her work with the Coen Brothers, working on every one of their films since Fargo in 1996. This is her fourth Academy Award nomination and first since the Coens’ The Ballad of Buster Scruggs in 2019. She was also nominated for the Coens’ True Grit remake and for Chazelle’s La La Land, which converted six of its record-tying 14 nominations into wins, but not Costume Design.

Elvis – Interestingly, Babylon kind of out-Luhrmanns Baz Luhrmann in this category in the brashness of its costumes, something for which the director’s films are widely touted. This is not to say that Elvis does not feature some of the director’s trademark fashion choices. Catherine Martin, Luhrmann’s wife, has been his production designer on all of his features and costume designer on all of his features since Moulin Rouge!, so it is safe to say she has put her stamp on his work.

Martin has been nominated for nine Academy Awards overall – four for Costume Design, four for Production Design, and one for Best Picture as a producer on Elvis. All of those nominations have come for Luhrmann films, and she has won four Oscars, two for Costume Design and two for Production Design (for the same two films, it should be noted, Moulin Rouge! and The Great Gatsby). It would hardly be surprising to see her take home both awards again for Elvis.

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – The Marvel Cinematic Universe has garnered 26 Academy Award nominations. Twelve of them have come for the Black Panther franchise (seven for the first film and five for this one). Black Panther and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever are the only MCU films nominated outside the Visual Effects and Makeup categories, apart from a lone Sound Editing nod for the first Iron Man. More impressively, from all those nominations, Black Panther has the only wins, taking home awards for Original Score, Production Design, and Costume Design.

In winning that award, legendary costume designer Ruth E. Carter became the first black woman to win an Oscar in this category (it should be noted production designer Hannah Beachler was the first black person ever to win the Production Design award, doing so for that film, as well). For the sequel, Carter has expanded on the Afrofuturism of the first film to incorporate Mayan and indigenous designs into the costumes of Talokan people. It is visionary work, and it is wonderful to see Carter once again recognized.

Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris – No one told me what this movie was about. I was interested in it when it was in theaters but never made it a priority and didn’t see it until it was nominated for this award. While watching, I realized the entire film is about a nice lady in the mid-20th century who travels to Paris in order to buy a Christian Dior dress essentially from the man himself. There are many fashion walks in the movie, a lot of emphasis placed on costuming, and long stretches where we watch dressmakers work their magic. 

Of course this movie is nominated in this category! I’m not saying it’s not necessarily deserving, but films about fashion often get nominated by this branch, which loves to see itself on screen. And, who can blame them? Case in point, costume designer Jenny Beavan is coming off a win in this category just last year for another fashion-focused feature: Cruella. Beavan has three wins from 11 previous nominations. This is her 12th, and more than likely, the nomination will have to be the reward this time around.

Everything Everywhere All at Once – This film’s genre hopping disguised as universe hopping necessitates a wide range of costumes, from the present-day frump of most of the characters to the elegant, Wong Kar Wai-inspired fashions to the monastic designs of the everything bagel cult. Stephanie Hsu’s misunderstood villain gets the most extravagant fashions, which nominated designer Shirley Kurata intended to subvert and reclaim “Asian-centric tropes,” according to an interview with The Hollywood Reporter. Kurata’s work certainly matches the maximalist style of the whole enterprise while finding subtlety that is sorely lacking in the rest of the film.

The final analysis

You could call this a three-horse race, with Carter hanging in there by virtue of her name and reputation (which is not to say her work is not deserving; it’s just a competitive year). But really, I think this comes down to Elvis and Babylon. If that sounds a little familiar, it’s because in my analysis, the Makeup and Hairstyling category came down to Elvis and The Whale. Be forewarned, a lot of the crafts categories are going to come down to Elvis or something else. It’s all a matter of how much the Academy really just likes Elvis or whether voters will spread the love.

One important thing to note is that unlike other categories, Best Picture heat doesn’t seem to mean a lot to the winner of Costume Design. It’s just as often that a Picture nominee loses to a non-Picture nominee here – far more so than any other craft category. For this reason, I give the slight edge to Babylon, which features the kind of bold, colorful costumes the Academy tends to favor in this category. Carter is a threat, but it’s likely the Academy feels it has already rewarded that franchise with this award and might not recognize everything new Carter is bringing to the table.

Depending on when this award is handed out, this could be a fascinating bellwether for the other crafts categories. Babylon is absolutely in the running for all three awards for which it is nominated, and if it wins here, it could go 3-for-3. If Elvis wins, we could be in for a long night of that film picking up craft award after craft award, a la Dune last year or Mad Max: Fury Road in years past.

Will win: Babylon

Should win: Babylon

Should have been here: Women Talking

A note about my favorite snub: I know I called out a bunch of contemporary designs up top, but I cannot get over the brilliance of Quita Alfred’s costumes in Women Talking. They are so subtle and intricate that they might be easy to overlook, but make no mistake, Alfred’s work is integral to the film’s disorienting, unsettling effect. Beautiful stuff.

Next time: Cinematography

Countdown to the Oscars: Best Makeup and Hairstyling

We’re counting down the days until the Academy Awards! We’ll be here, breaking down each of the 23 categories, talking a bit of history, and trying to figure out who is going to win all those gold statues. So check back throughout the next three weeks for Last Cinema Standing’s Countdown to the Oscars.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

The nominees are:

All Quiet on the Western Front

The Batman

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Elvis

The Whale

Remember 2015 and 2016 when Love Larson and Eva von Bahr were nominated in back-to-back years for their work on a pair of popular Swedish hits that most Americans had never heard of? That was cool. Remember Ali Abbasi’s weird little Swedish gem Border in 2018? Also cool. How about last year and the love shown to the long-awaited sequel Coming 2 America? That was neat and out of left field. 

All of this is to point out that this year’s crop of Makeup and Hairstyling nominees feels a little safe, a little traditional. Every one of these films is nominated for at least three awards this year, and two are Best Picture nominees. There is nothing that feels spontaneous or quirky, like in 2020, when Matteo Garrone’s Pinocchio snuck into the lineup. No matter. Just an observation.

As it stands, these nominees reflect a growing trend within the Makeup and Hairstyling Branch of the Academy to favor showy character prosthetics that contribute to a leading or supporting performance in some major way. The Batman, Elvis, and The Whale are all a part of this trend. Four of the past five winners fit this bill, as well, with Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom the exception in 2020. Otherwise, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Bombshell, Vice, and The Darkest Hour all feature main characters buried under layers of prosthetics. So, let’s start there.

The Whale – The makeup is everything in Darren Aronofsky’s weepy drama. Okay, there is Brendan Fraser giving the performance of a lifetime. But, that performance does not exist without the prosthetic work, which is aided by a lot of CGI. Fraser is not a small man, but the work to transform him into a believable 600-pound man is, pardon the pun, gargantuan. Fraser’s character appears fully nude multiple times in the film, meaning the full-body prosthetics must hold up under scrutiny. More than that, the facial pieces have to bear the weight of Aronofsky’s many closeups without compromising Fraser’s performance. Your mileage may vary, but if the movie works for you, the makeup deserves a lot of credit.

Elvis – From a character makeup standpoint, Baz Luhrman’s wild biopic is The Whale times two. First, there is Austin Butler’s Elvis, which requires a number of subtle facial prosthetics, as well as tremendous attention to detail with the singer’s famously coiffed hair. Second, there is Tom Hanks’ fat suit, as well as the curiously oversized nose prosthetic. There is also a ton of work put into recreating the period-accurate hairstyles of the large crowds in attendance for many of the Elvis shows in the movie. Add all of this together, and for a movie I didn’t like, the work is quite admirable and this nomination well deserved.

The Batman – There is a joke to be made here about Robert Pattinson’s Batman being the first caped crusader to don eyeliner, but we’ll save it for another time. No, much like Batman Returns’ nomination in this category 30 years ago, this is all about the Penguin. This past year, as part of an anniversary screening of Returns, I actually got to see a live demonstration of the makeup, prosthetics, and hair piece it took to transform Danny DeVito into Oswald Cobblepot. It was cool to see and emphasized the work that goes into making these fantasy characters truly spark to life. Here – and I know this is cliche to say – Colin Farrell is unrecognizable as the Penguin. It’s a remarkable transformation that deserves much praise.

All Quiet on the Western Front – Perhaps the most iconic image to come out of this film is that of star Felix Kammerer’s ashen face, caked in mud, delivering that thousand-yard stare. So much of the movie is about the main character’s transformation from eager, fresh-faced youth to that broken, battered man, and the makeup really helps give the audience a sense of where we are in that story. Really, this is the story of all the men maimed and scarred by the war. We see their bruises, their wounds, and their missing limbs, and the cost of the war is made real and tangible. The makeup is haunting and shattering all throughout the film.

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – The original Black Panther film was nominated for seven Academy Awards, including Best Picture. This one is nominated for five, but only two in the same category as the first feature (Original Song and Costume Design). Makeup and Hairstyling is one of the places the 2018 film missed out, though there were only three nominees in the category that year. The film was part of the final seven-film bake-off, so it stands to reason that with five nominees, it would have been in. The tattoo work alone on the Wakandans and the Talokan people is wonderfully impressive stuff, and similar to The Batman, it is a major lift to bring these fantastical characters into a reality we recognize.

The final analysis

I keep going back and forth between The Whale and Elvis. Based on recent history, either would be a logical winner, and there is very little to separate them. But let’s try.

Going back to 2011, four of the 11 Makeup and Hairstyling winners have been for films that also won a lead performance Oscar (The Iron Lady, Dallas Buyers Club, The Darkest Hour, and The Eyes of Tammy Faye just last year). If we think Butler is going to win Best Actor, then Elvis is a reasonable bet here. In addition, from 2000 to 2018, in every instance when a Best Picture nominee was cited in this category, a Best Picture nominee won the award. This would also point to Elvis (or All Quiet on the Western Front).

However, this is where it gets fun. The past three years have painted a different picture. In 2019, Bombshell beat out Joker and 1917. In 2020, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom beat out Mank. And last year, Tammy Faye beat out Dune. So, Picture is no longer the slam-dunk indicator we would once have considered it. In addition, looking at 2019 again, Bombshell featured a Best Actress-nominated performance from Charlize Theron, but it beat out Renee Zelwegger’s Best Actress-winning performance in Judy in this category. So, even if Butler does triumph in Actor, the Fraser film is not out of the running here.

We also cannot ignore the Academy’s willingness to go with the fun, showy blockbuster in this category, which in this case I believe would be The Batman over Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. More than likely, those two films will split votes, preventing a victory on par with Star Trek, Mad Max: Fury Road, or Suicide Squad. War films do not tend to do particularly well here, and even Saving Private Ryan lost to Elizabeth in this category, so unless All Quiet on the Western Front is going to sweep (like it did at the BAFTAs), it’s probably out of the running.

All of which brings us back to: The Whale or Elvis? If you’re placing a bet, go with Elvis. It is the more beloved film, it is the Best Picture nominee, and it features your likely Best Actor winner. That is the smart way to play this game. But, I just cannot get past the fact that The Whale does not exist without the makeup, and it’s right there, front and center the entire time. What are we doing here if not trying to have a little fun? So, you be smart. I’m going out on the limb.

Will win: The Whale

Should win: The Batman

Should have been here: Babylon

A word on my favorite snub: Damien Chazelle’s Babylon is a rise-and-fall movie that covers years of its characters’ lives and eventually decades. The subtle aging, along with the more extravagant hair and makeup looks that abound – particularly for Margot Robbie’s character – would have been a wonderful complement to the more conventional slate of nominees this year.

Next time: Costume Design