Countdown to the Oscars: Best Actor

The Last Cinema Standing Countdown to the Oscars is your guide to the Academy Awards. We will cover each of the categories in depth, talk about history and what the award truly means, and predict some winners. Check back all month as we make our way to the big show, one category (each as important as the next) at a time.

Best Actor

The nominees are:

Javier Bardem for Being the Ricardos

Benedict Cumberbatch for The Power of the Dog

Andrew Garfield for Tick, Tick…BOOM!

Will Smith for King Richard

Denzel Washingtong for The Tragedy of Macbeth

I got burned last year predicting against the stats in this category. I thought the sentiment for the recently deceased Chadwick Boseman, coupled with his undeniably great performance in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, would override the fact that Anthony Hopkins won the BAFTA for The Father. I was wrong, and I will not make that mistake again

It is a little easier this year, considering one actor has won the BAFTA, the Screen Actors Guild award, the Critics’ Choice award, and a somewhat meaningless Golden Globe. That actor …

Will Smith for King Richard – Sometimes, a pairing of actor and role just seems designed to win an Oscar. The buzz begins from minute one, long before any footage has even been shot. It does not always lead to an Academy Award win, but when it does, it becomes so inevitable it feels as though it were written in the stars. This is a long way of saying Smith has not been shy about his desire to win an Oscar, and taking on the role of Richard Williams has given him the perfect opportunity to do so.

Of course, none of this works if the performance is bad, so Smith throws himself fully into the role of the famed tennis instructor. He’s got the voice down. He’s got the walk. He’s got the attitude. Smith is showy in all the right ways, evoking the larger-than-life figure while still making the character his own. Smith’s take on Richard is difficult and a little deranged but devoted to his daughters and determined to make them the best they can possibly be. In other words, he’s playing a pretty good dad, which is a core Smith zeroes in on to carry the audience through the story.

Benedict Cumberbatch for The Power of the Dog – What a fascinating and enviable career Cumberbatch has built for himself. Just in the last 10 years, he has appeared in Star Trek: Into Darkness, the Marvel Cinematic Universe, and as the voice of the dragon in two The Hobbit movies. But, he has balanced out the blockbusters with prestige work like 12 Years a Slave, The Imitation Game, 1917, and this film. He seems equally at home in either context and never repeats the same performance twice. There is always something new to discover with a Cumberbatch character.

Such is the case with Phil Burbank, a rancher whose self-denial and repression have curdled into anger and vindictiveness. There is no place in the world for him to be his true self, so he lashes out at the world and everyone in it, with Cumberbatch deploying a quiet menace that chills to the bone. Yet, within this villain, there is the soul of a poet, of the person he could have been if the world were more accepting, the side of himself he has suppressed. Cumberbatch nails this half of the character with equal finesse and skill, crafting one of the great movie characters of recent memory.

Andrew Garfield for Tick, Tick…BOOM! – Garfield is one of my favorite actors working today. It has been fascinating to see him navigate the aftermath of starring in a pair of big-budget Spider-Man movies that kept him away from smaller, more interesting work for the better part of five years. He immediately followed The Amazing Spider-Man 2 with 99 Homes, Hacksaw Ridge, and Silence, three wildly different films in which Garfield is allowed to explore the full range of his abilities. This year, he returned to Spider-Man, but he has also given us this outstanding achievement.

I intend to wrap up 2021 with a later-than-usual Year in Review next week, once we are past the Oscars, but one bit of information I feel comfortable divulging: I think this is the best performance of the year. As Rent creator Jonathan Larson, Garfield embodies the spirit of every striving artist who is one phone call away from changing his life forever. He sings, he dances, and he brings us into the world of a Broadway wannabe with tons of talent but no luck. The movie does not work if Garfield does not get it right, but he soars and so does the movie.

Denzel Washington for The Tragedy of Macbeth – Would it surprise you to learn Washington is the most nominated leading actor of the past 10 years? It’s true. At an age when many actors start taking character roles or supporting parts or just start working less altogether, Washington has bolstered one of the finest resumés in cinema history with a decade of unmatched excellence. The New York Times recently named him the best performer of the 21st century, and it seems impossible to find fault with that determination.

You have never seen a take on the character of Macbeth like this. Much has been made of Joel Coen’s decision to cast older actors to play Lord and Lady Macbeth, but that has less to do with the success of the film than Washington’s decision to underplay every line where a lesser actor – or even a great actor with a more traditional take on the material – would shout to the back rows. Washington imbues each Shakespearean soliloquy with the weariness and nonchalance of a man at the end of his rope but who believes he always has another card up his sleeve. 

Javier Bardem for Being the Ricardos – I love Bardem. I think he is excellent. He deserves many more leading roles in which he is not cast as a villain but rather a romantic lead or sympathetic hero. He can do just about anything. Just about anything, except play a famously light on his feet Cuban musician and comedian. He does what he can in the part, but his casting here was a mistake.

Though talented and versatile, Bardem carries with him the weight of life and experience. He has seen things. These are great qualities for a performer, but they do not exactly scream out: 36-year-old song-and-dance man. Worse still is that the story does not give Desi Arnaz much to do, which means Bardem is held back by the script, as well as his own casting. But, anyway, good for Bardem earning his fourth acting nomination from the Academy.

The final analysis

For a while, it looked as if the momentum behind The Power of the Dog might carry Benedict Cumberbatch to a victory here, but that momentum has cooled, effectively killing his chances. Likewise, Andrew Garfield had buzz around his work in Tick, Tick…BOOM!, and the success of Spider-Man: No Way Home only bolstered his profile (interesting to note Cumberbatch also appears in that film but did not get a similar boost). However, missing out on a BAFTA nomination with the voters in Garfield’s adopted U.K. home (his family moved to England when Garfield was 3) put a serious dent in his chances.

No, this is Will Smith’s award to lose, and regardless of the twists and turns of the campaign trail, it always has been. A win for Smith would be a feel-good story, a reward from the industry for being one of the most successful and popular actors of the past three decades. Few actors in Hollywood are savvier than Smith, and with King Richard, he saw his moment and seized it. He has played this perfectly – including delivering a stellar performance – and for his troubles, he will walk away with that little gold statue.

Will win: Will Smith for King Richard

Should win: Andrew Garfield for Tick, Tick…BOOM!

Should have been here: Dev Patel for The Green Knight

Next time: Best Actress

Countdown to the Oscars: Best Editing

The Last Cinema Standing Countdown to the Oscars is your guide to the Academy Awards. We will cover each of the categories in depth, talk about history and what the award truly means, and predict some winners. Check back all month as we make our way to the big show, one category (each as important as the next) at a time.

Best Editing

The nominees are:

Don’t Look Up

Dune

King Richard

The Power of the Dog

Tick, Tick… BOOM!

Among most awards pundits and prognosticators, Best Editing is seen as a major bellwether for Best Picture, and it is true that since 2000, only one film has taken the top prize without being nominated for Editing. In that case, it was Birdman, which was intentionally shot to look like a film with no edits, making its omission wholly understandable. So, more than likely, your Best Picture is one of the four nominees here (Tick, Tick… BOOM! sadly is not in the top race).

However, since 2010, there has been only one Best Picture winner to win Best Editing, as well. That was Argo in 2012. This means that while our frontrunner for the big award of the night is represented here (The Power of the Dog), that does not make it a lock to win this category. Far from it. Instead, the award often goes to something flashier (Whiplash, The Social Network) or more action-oriented (Ford v. Ferrari, Mad Max: Fury Road).

The nominees this year, however, represent something different altogether. Movies one would expect to see here such as No Time to Die or West Side Story are missing from this group. Gone in favor of a subtler, more eclectic palate. How that will affect voters is left to be determined, but it makes for a fascinating group of films to compare and contrast.

Don’t Look Up – Adam McKay’s satire is a sprawling, globe-spanning yarn. It features at least 10 major characters, each with their own complete arcs and storylines, sometimes intersecting, sometimes not. While the throughline is clear – a world-destroying asteroid is headed straight for us – the storytelling plays like more of a snapshot of a world in crisis. As such, we peer into the lives and experiences of a wide array of peoples and communities.

In addition to keeping all of these wandering threads together, thrice-nominated editor Hank Corwin intersperses glimpses of life, innocent of blame and ignorant of its fate, through the film. Corwin’s masterstroke is the final sequence – which I will not spoil here – revealing the still-beating heart at the core of a movie that wants to laugh through the pain. 

King Richard – Sports movies tend to do well in the Best Editing category, at least when it comes to scoring a nomination. The most recent sports flick to win this award was the above-mentioned Ford v. Ferrari. Before that, Rocky and Raging Bull also triumphed. The reason seems quite clear: Many sports movies, King Richard included, build to a “big game.” Not only must the back and forth of competition be cleanly communicated in the climax of the story, but the audience must have arrived at that climax caring what will happen. That is where the pace and storytelling of the preceding 90-100 minutes come into play.

Editor Pamela Martin is no stranger to the sports movie formula and no novice at elevating it. She is a previous Oscar nominee for the David O’ Russell boxing film The Fighter and also cut the tennis film Battle of the Sexes. Both films build to the “big game” and arrive there through the subtle building of character and tension. Here, by the time Venus Williams competes in the climactic match at the end of the film, we know every character’s desire and motivation. Nothing is unclear, and because of that, we are free to enjoy the power and the drama of a well constructed climax.

Dune – Denis Villeneuve’s sci-fi spectacle has the look and feel of a more traditional nominee/winner in the category, but even this is undercut by a movie that is slower, more deliberate, and lacking in any traditional payoff. The effect of splitting Dune into two parts cannot be overstated when it comes to the impact on storytelling and editing. With a two-and-a-half-hour runtime to tell half a story, the movie feels loose and free, mostly in the best ways. There is no rush to get to the next action setpieces. There is no skipping over necessary exposition. Just a methodical immersion into a new universe.

Joe Walker previously was nominated for Villeneuve’s Arrival and for his work on 2013 Best Picture winner 12 Years a Slave. What all of these films share is a patient, careful approach to crafting a story in a way that creates maximum impact for the audience. Walker is listed as the editor for Dune Part II, of course, and early reports suggest the sequel will be laced with more traditional action sequences. No doubt Walker will handle these with aplomb, but we would be remiss to overlook work that is perhaps less showy but no less impressive.

The Power of the Dog – Speaking of slow, methodical storytelling, the power of (forgive me) The Power of the Dog lies entirely in its pacing. The excellent performances are given room to breathe, the twisty, unnerving story is given room to unfold, and the juxtaposition of image and intent is given proper weight. There have been complaints the movie is too slow, too oblique, but most of these can be chalked up to its popularity on Netflix, a platform that encourages neither attentive viewing nor quiet contemplation.

In truth, seen in a theater on the big screen, the story could not be clearer or more enthralling. First-time nominee Peter Sciberras, working on just his sixth feature film, draws a perfectly straight line from the first frame to the last. When the final twist occurs, there is no confusion, no wondering where it came from, but it remains shocking nonetheless. This is because Sciberras and director Jane Campion put all the pieces in place without revealing the final puzzle until they want us to see it.

Tick, Tick… BOOM! – Hopefully, I will be writing more in depth about Lin-Manuel Miranda’s directorial debut. No spoilers for my 2021 Year in Review, but It was my favorite English language film of 2021 and features my pick for the performance of the year, with Andrew Garfield playing Rent creator Jonathan Larson. When the film showed up in Best Editing on nomination morning and Garfield pulled a Best Actor nomination, I was certain it would find a place among the 10 Best Picture nominees. Alas, it was not to be. Even without the Academy seal of approval, the craft and storytelling remain impeccable.

Musicals are never easy, but the editing team of Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum make every transition sing (pun intended). The film weaves effortlessly between fantasy and reality as if there is no border between the two. Just watch the “Therapy” sequence, as Kerstein and Weisblum cut to the rhythm of the track, modulating the tempo of the sequence in perfect harmony with the music. They bounce back and forth from life as it is to life as Jonathan Larson sees it as if it were the most natural thing in the world. And, in this film, it is.

The final analysis

As much as I love it, as the only non-Best Picture nominee in the bunch, Tick, Tick… BOOM! is out of the running. Then, despite its frontrunner status for the top award, The Power of the Dog is probably running around third or fourth here. For the win, you could talk me into any of the other three.

Dune could run the table below the line and scoop up this award, too, and it would not be surprising in the least. In fact, that is probably where the smart money lands. On the other hand, Don’t Look Up has four total nominations and does not seem to be in the lead in any category, so perhaps this is the only place the Academy has to reward a film it clearly liked. 

Then, there is King Richard. Will Smith is starting to run away with Best Actor, and there seems to be a lot of love and respect out there for this film. While I doubt its chances in the Best Picture race, a win in Editing would provide the Academy a way to honor the film for more than its lead. Dune will have plenty of gold on Oscars night, and Don’t Look Up seems destined to be an also-ran. My gut says King Richard.

Will win: King Richard

Should win: Don’t Look Up

Should have been here: The Lost Daughter

Next time: Best Sound