The Last Cinema Standing Countdown to the Oscars is your guide to the Academy Awards. We will cover each of the categories in depth, talk about history and what the award truly means, and predict some winners. Check back all month as we make our way to the big show, one category (each as important as the next) at a time.
Best Actor
The nominees are:
Javier Bardem for Being the Ricardos
Benedict Cumberbatch for The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield for Tick, Tick…BOOM!
Will Smith for King Richard
Denzel Washingtong for The Tragedy of Macbeth
I got burned last year predicting against the stats in this category. I thought the sentiment for the recently deceased Chadwick Boseman, coupled with his undeniably great performance in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, would override the fact that Anthony Hopkins won the BAFTA for The Father. I was wrong, and I will not make that mistake again
It is a little easier this year, considering one actor has won the BAFTA, the Screen Actors Guild award, the Critics’ Choice award, and a somewhat meaningless Golden Globe. That actor …
Will Smith for King Richard – Sometimes, a pairing of actor and role just seems designed to win an Oscar. The buzz begins from minute one, long before any footage has even been shot. It does not always lead to an Academy Award win, but when it does, it becomes so inevitable it feels as though it were written in the stars. This is a long way of saying Smith has not been shy about his desire to win an Oscar, and taking on the role of Richard Williams has given him the perfect opportunity to do so.
Of course, none of this works if the performance is bad, so Smith throws himself fully into the role of the famed tennis instructor. He’s got the voice down. He’s got the walk. He’s got the attitude. Smith is showy in all the right ways, evoking the larger-than-life figure while still making the character his own. Smith’s take on Richard is difficult and a little deranged but devoted to his daughters and determined to make them the best they can possibly be. In other words, he’s playing a pretty good dad, which is a core Smith zeroes in on to carry the audience through the story.
Benedict Cumberbatch for The Power of the Dog – What a fascinating and enviable career Cumberbatch has built for himself. Just in the last 10 years, he has appeared in Star Trek: Into Darkness, the Marvel Cinematic Universe, and as the voice of the dragon in two The Hobbit movies. But, he has balanced out the blockbusters with prestige work like 12 Years a Slave, The Imitation Game, 1917, and this film. He seems equally at home in either context and never repeats the same performance twice. There is always something new to discover with a Cumberbatch character.
Such is the case with Phil Burbank, a rancher whose self-denial and repression have curdled into anger and vindictiveness. There is no place in the world for him to be his true self, so he lashes out at the world and everyone in it, with Cumberbatch deploying a quiet menace that chills to the bone. Yet, within this villain, there is the soul of a poet, of the person he could have been if the world were more accepting, the side of himself he has suppressed. Cumberbatch nails this half of the character with equal finesse and skill, crafting one of the great movie characters of recent memory.
Andrew Garfield for Tick, Tick…BOOM! – Garfield is one of my favorite actors working today. It has been fascinating to see him navigate the aftermath of starring in a pair of big-budget Spider-Man movies that kept him away from smaller, more interesting work for the better part of five years. He immediately followed The Amazing Spider-Man 2 with 99 Homes, Hacksaw Ridge, and Silence, three wildly different films in which Garfield is allowed to explore the full range of his abilities. This year, he returned to Spider-Man, but he has also given us this outstanding achievement.
I intend to wrap up 2021 with a later-than-usual Year in Review next week, once we are past the Oscars, but one bit of information I feel comfortable divulging: I think this is the best performance of the year. As Rent creator Jonathan Larson, Garfield embodies the spirit of every striving artist who is one phone call away from changing his life forever. He sings, he dances, and he brings us into the world of a Broadway wannabe with tons of talent but no luck. The movie does not work if Garfield does not get it right, but he soars and so does the movie.
Denzel Washington for The Tragedy of Macbeth – Would it surprise you to learn Washington is the most nominated leading actor of the past 10 years? It’s true. At an age when many actors start taking character roles or supporting parts or just start working less altogether, Washington has bolstered one of the finest resumés in cinema history with a decade of unmatched excellence. The New York Times recently named him the best performer of the 21st century, and it seems impossible to find fault with that determination.
You have never seen a take on the character of Macbeth like this. Much has been made of Joel Coen’s decision to cast older actors to play Lord and Lady Macbeth, but that has less to do with the success of the film than Washington’s decision to underplay every line where a lesser actor – or even a great actor with a more traditional take on the material – would shout to the back rows. Washington imbues each Shakespearean soliloquy with the weariness and nonchalance of a man at the end of his rope but who believes he always has another card up his sleeve.
Javier Bardem for Being the Ricardos – I love Bardem. I think he is excellent. He deserves many more leading roles in which he is not cast as a villain but rather a romantic lead or sympathetic hero. He can do just about anything. Just about anything, except play a famously light on his feet Cuban musician and comedian. He does what he can in the part, but his casting here was a mistake.
Though talented and versatile, Bardem carries with him the weight of life and experience. He has seen things. These are great qualities for a performer, but they do not exactly scream out: 36-year-old song-and-dance man. Worse still is that the story does not give Desi Arnaz much to do, which means Bardem is held back by the script, as well as his own casting. But, anyway, good for Bardem earning his fourth acting nomination from the Academy.
The final analysis
For a while, it looked as if the momentum behind The Power of the Dog might carry Benedict Cumberbatch to a victory here, but that momentum has cooled, effectively killing his chances. Likewise, Andrew Garfield had buzz around his work in Tick, Tick…BOOM!, and the success of Spider-Man: No Way Home only bolstered his profile (interesting to note Cumberbatch also appears in that film but did not get a similar boost). However, missing out on a BAFTA nomination with the voters in Garfield’s adopted U.K. home (his family moved to England when Garfield was 3) put a serious dent in his chances.
No, this is Will Smith’s award to lose, and regardless of the twists and turns of the campaign trail, it always has been. A win for Smith would be a feel-good story, a reward from the industry for being one of the most successful and popular actors of the past three decades. Few actors in Hollywood are savvier than Smith, and with King Richard, he saw his moment and seized it. He has played this perfectly – including delivering a stellar performance – and for his troubles, he will walk away with that little gold statue.
Will win: Will Smith for King Richard
Should win: Andrew Garfield for Tick, Tick…BOOM!
Should have been here: Dev Patel for The Green Knight
Next time: Best Actress
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