The cast of Birdman poses together after taking home the best ensemble prize from the Screen Actors Guild Awards. |
If you had
asked me before this past weekend what would win Best Picture at the Academy
Awards in a few weeks, I would have told you Boyhood, and I would
not have hesitated. Director Richard Linklater’s popular coming-of-age drama
has picked up award after award from critics groups and other organizations, it
is the best-reviewed movie of the year, and almost no one who sees it dislikes
it. Until now, it seemed unstoppable, but a funny thing happened on the way to
the Dolby.
Birdman,
Alejandro González Iñárritu’s satire of the entertainment industry, picked up
two big industry awards this weekend, the best film award from the Producers
Guild of America and the best ensemble prize from the Screen Actors Guild. That
is a whole lot of support thrown behind Iñárritu’s grand takedown of the modern
media culture.
The last
time a film won both the Producers Guild and the Screen Actors Guild but did
not win Best Picture at the Oscars was in 2006, when Little Miss Sunshine took home both awards but Martin Scorsese’s The Departed brought home the big prize.
After that, No Country for Old Men
(2007), Slumdog Millionaire (2008), The King’s Speech (2010), and Argo (2012) all pulled the trifecta.
The reason
those two Oscars precursors are so predictive is two-fold. The actors make up
the largest voting branch of the Academy, which means any film embraced by the
actors has a tremendous voting bloc behind it. In addition, the Producers Guild
uses the same preferential ballot system as the Academy (which you can read
more about here), and support within that system is usually widespread, meaning
a film is not only voters’ favorite but is other voters’ second or third
favorite. The higher up on the majority of ballots a film places, the more
likely it is to win.
I, for one,
am thankful Birdman has thrown a bit
of a monkey wrench into the season. So many years recently have been over
before they have gotten underway with films such The Artist and the aforementioned Slumdog Millionaire simply steamrolling their way to Best Picture.
Last year, when 12 Years a Slave and Gravity duked it out to the end – they tied
for the Producers Guild award – was the most thrilling Academy Awards race in
years. It is nice when the writing is not on the walls.
A couple
more things to take away then: Boyhood
is probably still the frontrunner despite this surge from Birdman. It is a crowd-pleaser that will end up near the top of a
lot of ballots, if not in the No. 1 spot. On the other hand, Birdman is more divisive, a
love-it-or-hate-it movie, in spite of the broad support the Producers Guild win
suggests.
One major
thing Birdman has going for it is a
lot of support from below-the-line workers. The film is a technical marvel,
which it proved by tying for the most Oscar nominations this year with The Grand Budapest Hotel, in addition to
an acting showcase. It should draw support from a wide range of craftspeople,
as well as the actors, writers, directors, and producers.
Another
takeaway from the televised broadcast of the Screen Actors Guild Awards was the
support for Selma, which was not
nominated in a single category last night. Clips from the film played during
the show’s “Celebration of Diversity” montage, and whenever Ava DuVernay’s
movie flashed on screen, a roar of applause went up from the audience. Despite
netting just two nominations, Selma
could be a real threat in the Best Picture category, particularly as it has
been in the news almost constantly since the nominations announcement. Only
time will tell on that front.
In the other
categories from last night, the only real surprise for me was Eddie Redmayne
winning best actor for his portrayal of Stephen Hawking in The Theory of Everything, beating out the favored Michael Keaton.
We probably will not know who is going to win that award at the Oscars until
Feb. 22, when the envelope is opened, and while I am pulling for Keaton, added
intrigue is always welcome in the Oscar race, particularly when the other
acting awards seem all but sewn up. Julianne Moore, Patricia Arquette, and JK
Simmons have not missed a step yet, and I see no reason why they would on the
way to the Academy Awards.
The next few
weeks will be telling as more industry guilds hand out their honors, including
the art directors, cinematographers, and directors, which will be a big
indicator. It all leads up to the big event the last Sunday in February, so
until then, enjoy the mystery.