Long, winding road: 2015 Oscar chase underway

Writer-director Tom McCarthy's journalism thriller Spotlight is an early frontrunner for Best Picture at the Oscars.

With the announcement yesterday of the Screen Actors Guild nominations and this morning of the Golden Globe nominations, we are deep into what many awards watchers call Phase 1 of the Academy Awards race. This is the time when critics groups around the country and other awards-giving bodies narrow the field of Oscar contenders to a select few films that can weather the storm of awards campaigning. Phase 2 kicks into gear later this month and early January when the industry guilds announce their nominees. For now, let’s see where the race stands.

Golden Globes

Best motion picture, drama: Carol, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Revenant, Room, Spotlight

Best motion picture, comedy: The Big Short, Joy, The Martian, Spy, Trainwreck,

Screen Actors Guild

Best ensemble: Beasts of No Nation, The Big Short, Spotlight, Straight Outta Compton, Trumbo

Gotham Awards

Best feature: Carol, The Diary of a Teenage Girl, Heaven Knows What, Spotlight*, Tangerine

*Spotlight won the award

Independent Spirit Awards

Best feature: Anomalisa, Beasts of No Nation, Carol, Spotlight, Tangerine

Critics groups

New York Film Critics Circle: Carol

Los Angeles Film Critics Association: Spotlight

National Board of Review: Mad Max: Fury Road

Boston Society of Film Critics: Spotlight

Washington D.C. Area Film Critics Association: Spotlight

New York Online Film Critics: Spotlight

The one film you see showing up pretty much everywhere is writer-director Tom McCarthy’s Spotlight, which I called at the time of its release an American masterpiece, so I don’t have much to be upset with so far this season. Even where it did not win the top award with critics, its presence was felt as Michael Keaton nabbed best actor from the New York Film Critics and the film was listed as one of the top 10 films of the year by the National Board of Review.

Ever since it garnered near-universal praise on the festival circuit, Spotlight has been considered a heavy favorite for Best Picture at the Academy Awards, and nothing in this early part of the season has derailed those hopes. Among the other films drawing both praise and awards recognition nearly across the board are Todd Haynes’ Carol, George Miller’s Mad Max: Fury Road, and Adam McKay’s The Big Short. We are a little more than a month away from the Oscar nominations even being announced, and a lot can change, but for now, Spotlight is shining brightest.

In the acting races, this may be one of the most wide-open years in recent memory with no clear frontrunner in any of the four categories. A slight consensus is starting to build around a group of nominees, but even that is subject to fluctuations throughout the season and which groups have seen which movies. So, let’s break it down by category.

Best Actor

Paul Dano in Love and Mercy.

This will be a theme here: There are a few performers the conversation has revolved around, but no one has yet jumped to the front of the pack. That may happen in Phase 2, or it may not. That is what makes this year so exciting. For Best Actor, the leading hopefuls appear to be Leonardo Dicaprio for The Revenant, Bryan Cranston for Trumbo, Michael Fassbender for Steve Jobs, Eddie Redmayne for The Danish Girl, and Johnny Depp for Black Mass, with Will Smith (Concussion), Matt Damon (The Martian), and Paul Dano (Love and Mercy) also hanging around the edges.

As far as critics groups, Dano, Dicaprio, Damon, and Fassbender have taken the major awards, while only Dicaprio and Fassbender showed up on the Screen Actors Guild list. The Golden Globes only muddied the waters by naming Dicaprio and Fassbender in the drama category, Damon in comedy, and Dano in supporting. Cranston and Redmayne got in with both the Screen Actors Guild and the Globes, while Depp was named by the Screen Actors Guild and Smith by the Globes.

It seems possible that even with five slots in Best Actor, six of these actors could find themselves with Oscar nominations if Dano gets in for Supporting Actor with the Academy. It is a fair question to ask whom Dano is supporting as Brian Wilson in the Brian Wilson biopic Love and Mercy, but we will talk about so-called “category fraud” more in the actress races. Right now, here are my nominations predictions: Dicaprio for The Revenant, Cranston for Trumbo, Fassbender for Steve Jobs, Redmayne for The Danish Girl, and Damon for The Martian.

Best Supporting Actor

Mark Rylance in Bridge of Spies.

Apart from Dano, the biggest players in this field appear to be Mark Rylance for Bridge of Spies, Sylvester Stallone for Creed, and Idris Elba for Beasts of No Nation. The guys in Spotlight, particularly Keaton and Mark Ruffalo, were expected to be major players, and while the critics have borne this out, they were shut out with both the Screen Actors Guild and Globes, though Ruffalo was nominated for best actor in a comedy for Infinitely Polar Bear. Also in the mix are Christian Bale and Steve Carell for The Big Short, Michael Shannon for 99 Homes, and Jacob Tremblay for Room.

Rylance has taken the lion’s share of critical kudos, while Shannon, Elba, and Stallone have also picked up recognition. Throw in Dano, and you could have your five, but Bale looks to be building steam as well. For the win, it is anyone’s guess, although I know a lot of people would love to see Stallone pick up an Oscar for the role he created almost 40 years ago. For now, here are my nominations predictions: Ryalnce for Bridge of Spies, Stallone for Creed, Elba for Beasts of No Nation, Ruffalo for Spotlight, and Bale for The Big Short.

Best Actress

Rooney Mara in Carol.

Here is where we start to see some shenanigans. Every year, people complain the Best Actress race gets limited to a select few performances and a ton of great actresses get left on the sidelines in more obscure work. Well, this year, there are more superb performances by talented actresses in contention than there have been in a long time, and this has led to some awards campaigners trying to sneak actors and actresses into categories where they do not belong.

Of course, this goes on every year, but this year seems particularly egregious with Alicia Vikander in The Danish Girl and Rooney Mara in Carol being campaigned for supporting awards. The strategy is as shameful as it is outright delusional since both actresses are clearly co-leads in their films. The Academy is under no obligation to listen to the campaigns and has ignored such attempts at manipulation in the past, notably when Kate Winslet campaigned for Supporting Actress for The Reader but was correctly nominated and won for Best Actress.

As of now, it is hard to say where the Academy will fall on this issue. The Screen Actors Guild took the bait and nominated both Vikander and Mara in supporting, while the Globes did not and nominated them both in lead. The Best Actress frontrunners as it stands are Brie Larson for Room and Saoirse Ronan for Brooklyn, in addition to Mara’s Carol co-star Cate Blanchett. If Vikander and Mara are properly placed, that is probably your five. If not, look to Jennifer Lawrence in Joy and Charlotte Rampling in 45 Years for your alternatives.

Larson, Ronan, and Rampling have been the critical darlings thus far, and I expect Ronan and Larson to battle it out for the win. My predicted nominees in the category are: Ronan for Brooklyn, Larson for Room, Blanchett for Carol, Mara for Carol, and Lawrence for Joy.

Best Supporting Actress

Kate Winslet in Steve Jobs.

The biggest problem with trying to slide around in categories is that it pushes other great, truly supporting performances out for leads. Case in point, Elizabeth Banks delivers one of my favorite, mostly unheralded performances of the year in Love and Mercy, and with five slots to play with, she would be a good bet for a nomination. However, if Vikander and Mara go supporting, they are almost certain nominees, leaving only three spaces for true supporting performances. If Banks misses out as a result, it would be a shame.

Should Vikander and Mara end up here, they are your frontrunners and will compete for the win. They will most likely be joined by Winslet for Steve Jobs, Jennifer Jason Leigh for The Hateful Eight, and Helen Mirren for the surprisingly popular Trumbo. Kristen Stewart is on the fringe for The Clouds of Sils Maria, and Vikander has also earned recognition for her performance in Ex Machina, which I would also call a lead but is at least a little more of a judgment call than her role in The Danish Girl.

The critics so far have spoken up for Stewart, Mara, Leigh, and Vikander for both performances, while the Screen Actors Guild added Rachel McAdams for Spotlight, and the Globes highlighted Jane Fonda for Youth. Anything could happen, and a lot of it is going to depend on category placement. My current predictions are: Vikander for The Danish Girl, Winslet for Steve Jobs, Mirren for Trumbo, Leigh for The Hateful Eight, and Stewart for The Clouds of Sils Maria.

Final thoughts

It is a lot of fun when we don’t know anything. We never really know anything about how these awards are going to go, but this year feels especially like anything can happen. By this time, we usually have one or two performances steamrolling through the season on the way to the Oscar stage, but so far, we just have a lot of great work being recognized by many different groups. To me, that’s cool, and it represents the most important reason these awards exist – to highlight stellar artistic achievements.

On a personal level, I have a few rooting interests. Dicaprio and Fassbender are my two favorite actors, and I would love for either one of them to accept an Academy Award. Shannon is another of my favorites, and I think 99 Homes deserves more recognition than it has gotten, so to see his name crop up in so many places has been a delight. The same goes for Vikander and Ex Machina. In the top category, Spotlight is hands down the best American film of the year, and if it does lead the way all season, I would be perfectly fine with that.

There is a lot of time left, and right now, we cannot count out any possibility. Everything could change, or maybe nothing will, but regardless, it will be a fun ride. So, let’s strap in.

Flying high: Birdman takes two big steps toward Oscar glory

The cast of Birdman poses together after taking home the best ensemble prize from the Screen Actors Guild Awards.

If you had asked me before this past weekend what would win Best Picture at the Academy Awards in a few weeks, I would have told you Boyhood, and I would not have hesitated. Director Richard Linklater’s popular coming-of-age drama has picked up award after award from critics groups and other organizations, it is the best-reviewed movie of the year, and almost no one who sees it dislikes it. Until now, it seemed unstoppable, but a funny thing happened on the way to the Dolby.

Birdman, Alejandro González Iñárritu’s satire of the entertainment industry, picked up two big industry awards this weekend, the best film award from the Producers Guild of America and the best ensemble prize from the Screen Actors Guild. That is a whole lot of support thrown behind Iñárritu’s grand takedown of the modern media culture.

The last time a film won both the Producers Guild and the Screen Actors Guild but did not win Best Picture at the Oscars was in 2006, when Little Miss Sunshine took home both awards but Martin Scorsese’s The Departed brought home the big prize. After that, No Country for Old Men (2007), Slumdog Millionaire (2008), The King’s Speech (2010), and Argo (2012) all pulled the trifecta.

The reason those two Oscars precursors are so predictive is two-fold. The actors make up the largest voting branch of the Academy, which means any film embraced by the actors has a tremendous voting bloc behind it. In addition, the Producers Guild uses the same preferential ballot system as the Academy (which you can read more about here), and support within that system is usually widespread, meaning a film is not only voters’ favorite but is other voters’ second or third favorite. The higher up on the majority of ballots a film places, the more likely it is to win.

I, for one, am thankful Birdman has thrown a bit of a monkey wrench into the season. So many years recently have been over before they have gotten underway with films such The Artist and the aforementioned Slumdog Millionaire simply steamrolling their way to Best Picture. Last year, when 12 Years a Slave and Gravity duked it out to the end – they tied for the Producers Guild award – was the most thrilling Academy Awards race in years. It is nice when the writing is not on the walls.

A couple more things to take away then: Boyhood is probably still the frontrunner despite this surge from Birdman. It is a crowd-pleaser that will end up near the top of a lot of ballots, if not in the No. 1 spot. On the other hand, Birdman is more divisive, a love-it-or-hate-it movie, in spite of the broad support the Producers Guild win suggests.

One major thing Birdman has going for it is a lot of support from below-the-line workers. The film is a technical marvel, which it proved by tying for the most Oscar nominations this year with The Grand Budapest Hotel, in addition to an acting showcase. It should draw support from a wide range of craftspeople, as well as the actors, writers, directors, and producers.

Another takeaway from the televised broadcast of the Screen Actors Guild Awards was the support for Selma, which was not nominated in a single category last night. Clips from the film played during the show’s “Celebration of Diversity” montage, and whenever Ava DuVernay’s movie flashed on screen, a roar of applause went up from the audience. Despite netting just two nominations, Selma could be a real threat in the Best Picture category, particularly as it has been in the news almost constantly since the nominations announcement. Only time will tell on that front.

In the other categories from last night, the only real surprise for me was Eddie Redmayne winning best actor for his portrayal of Stephen Hawking in The Theory of Everything, beating out the favored Michael Keaton. We probably will not know who is going to win that award at the Oscars until Feb. 22, when the envelope is opened, and while I am pulling for Keaton, added intrigue is always welcome in the Oscar race, particularly when the other acting awards seem all but sewn up. Julianne Moore, Patricia Arquette, and JK Simmons have not missed a step yet, and I see no reason why they would on the way to the Academy Awards.

The next few weeks will be telling as more industry guilds hand out their honors, including the art directors, cinematographers, and directors, which will be a big indicator. It all leads up to the big event the last Sunday in February, so until then, enjoy the mystery.

Screen Actors Guild nominations kick off industry awards

Emma Stone and Edward Norton were each nominated by the Screen Actors Guild for their performances in Birdman, which was also nominated for best ensemble.

The nominations for the Screen Actors Guild Awards were announced Wednesday morning – bright and early if you are on the West Coast, reasonably mid-morning out East, and if you are an East Coaster out West for the week, well, it is just a weird way to start the day. Regardless, let us dive right in.

The importance of the Screen Actors Guild Awards to the Oscar race is that these are the first major industry awards to announce nominees. Critics and awards-giving bodies are good for consensus, but industry voters – the folks nominating for SAG – are many of the same people voting on the Academy Awards nominees and winners. So this gives us a more concrete idea where we are heading. In that respect, a few things were confirmed this morning, and a few things stood out as surprises.

The Screen Actors Guild Awards nominees:

BEST ENSEMBLE

Birdman

Boyhood

The Imitation Game

The Grand Budapest Hotel

The Theory of Everything

BEST ACTOR

Michael Keaton, Birdman

Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game

Steve Carell, Foxcatcher

Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler

BEST ACTRESS

Julianne Moore, Still Alice

Reese Witherspoon, Wild

Jennifer Aniston, Cake

Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything

Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Robert Duvall, The Judge

Ethan Hawke, Boyhood

Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher

Edward Norton, Birdman

JK Simmons, Whiplash

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game

Emma Stone, Birdman

Meryl Streep, Into the Woods

Naomi Watts, St. Vincent

First, the surprises and my favorite nomination of the morning, Jake Gyllenhaal is nominated for best actor for his performance in Nightcrawler. It is a seedy, dirty, impressive little film from first-time feature director Dan Gilroy, and Gyllenhaal is amazing in it. As a freelance “journalist” exploiting the worst traits of the modern news media, Gyllenhaal is scary good. The movie has done well by independent standards and is back in theaters for a limited run. If you get a chance, do yourself a favor and check it out.

Jennifer Aniston is a surprise best actress nominee at the Screen Actors Guild Awards for her performance in Cake.

Over in the best actress category, the big surprise is Jennifer Aniston’s nomination for Cake, which I have not seen. Considered by many to be a week year for actresses – though it really is not if you know where to look – the category is ripe for an upset nomination or two. Aniston gets in at the expense of Marion Cotillard, who had been picking up steam for her performances in The Immigrant and Two Days, One Night.

Robert Duvall is the big surprise in supporting actor and not necessarily a pleasant one. The Judge was a widely panned, largely forgotten box office failure. Duvall’s nomination seems more like proof that well-respected older actors with a lot of friends and fans in the industry can be nominated for less-than-stellar work in subpar films. I would have rather seen maybe Alec Baldwin for Still Alice or an outside shot such as Michael Fassbender for Frank or Chris O’Dowd for Calvary.

In supporting actress, Naomi Watts gets in for St. Vincent, a film that had mostly been positioned as a nomination vehicle for Bill Murray. With a crowded best actor field, that was always unlikely to happen, but Watts’ nomination at least shows some support for the little film that has found some success in theaters.

Even without an individual acting nomination, The Grand Budapest Hotel sneaks into the top category for best ensemble – which includes Murray, so he was not entirely shut out today. This nomination keeps the film firmly in the conversation for the Academy Awards, not an easy feat for a quirky independent film released early in the year. Such is the respect Wes Anderson garners.

Overall, the rich got richer as Birdman earned four nominations on the morning, while Boyhood, The Imitation Game, and The Theory of Everything each pulled down three nominations, including for best ensemble. All four are expected to be major Best Picture players at the Oscars. The only possibly irksome thing here is the nod for Theory of Everything, which is really a two-hander between Eddie Redmayne and Felicity Jones more than a true ensemble piece. Something such as Foxcatcher is probably more deserving of ensemble recognition.

Tomorrow, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association will announce its nominees for the Golden Globes, and we will have a whole new list of nominees from which to tease out information. Things will start to move pretty fast from here.