Countdown to the Oscars: What you can see

In past years, we have gone category by category when looking at the Academy Awards nominees, which was a fun but exhausting exercise for yours truly. This year, if you will allow, I would like to try something a little different: grouping the nominees by theme and examining them together.

To kick this off, I thought we would start with the crafts categories that make their presence known onscreen – in other words, what you can see.

In keeping with tradition, we will take a look at what nominee is likely to walk away with the win on Oscars night, what I would award, and what in a perfect world I would have liked to see on the shortlist.

It neither should escape our attention the Academy has announced the four categories it will not air live during the broadcast of the awards ceremony. Among them are Best Cinematography and Best Editing, to go with Best Makeup and Hairstyling and Best Live Action Short. You will note three of these categories discussed below, and while the entire affair is a travesty, the exclusion of Cinematography and Editing is particularly galling.

Roma director Alfonso Cuarón and reigning Best Director Guillermo del Toro have already weighed in with their displeasure, among many others, including the American Society of Cinematographers guild. ABC and the Academy seem unlike to waver on this point at this late date, so close to the show as we are, but here’s hoping a revolt among nominees – it would have to be led by the actors – can help correct this egregious error.

Best Cinematography

Nominees: Cold War; The Favourite; Never Look Away; Roma; A Star Is Born

Speaking of Cuarón, the director is the odds-on favorite to walk away with the prize here. He would be the first person to win for lensing a film he also directed. His guiding principle, he has said, was “What would Chivo do?” – a reference to longtime friend and collaborator Emmanuel Lubezski. Apart from the gorgeous lighting and lengthy tracking shots, a staple of Lubezski and Cuarón’s work together, Cuarón looks to be taking from Page 1 of the Chivo playbook: Win the Oscar. Lubezski is the only person to win this award three times in a row, taking home the award for Gravity (also directed by Cuarón), Birdman and The Revenant. Now his friend could be following in his footsteps.

The monkey wrench could be Cold War director of photography Lukasz Zal, who won the ASC guild award, though that could have been a group of cinematographers voting for one of their own over an outsider director. Zal’s square-framed, black-and-white work on Pawel Pawlikowsi’s daring romance would not be unworthy. My choice is probably running third here, Robbie Ryan’s daft, iconoclastic work on The Favourite, while six-time nominee Caleb Deschanel (Never Look Away) and twice-nominated Matthew Libatique (A Star Is Born) are probably also-rans, who both were surprise nominees to one degree or another.

This likely comes down to Roma vs. Cold War, and I expect the Academy as a whole will be less reluctant than the cinematographers to reward Cuarón for his lovely work.

Will win: Roma

Should win: The Favourite

Should have been here: First Man

Best Editing

Nominees: BlacKkKlansman; Bohemian Rhapsody; The Favourite; Green Book; Vice

An eclectic group to say the least, here we find a police procedural, a music biopic, a costume drama, a serio-comic road movie, and a political satire. The only thing missing is a war movie and we would have Best Editing BINGO.

Patrick J. Don Vito (Green Book) and Yorgos Mavropsaridis (The Favourite) do the least-flashy work here, though The Favourite features some spectacular dissolves, particularly during its end sequence. If Green Book maintains its cooling Best Picture heat, it is possible Don Vito scores here, but that is less likely by the day. Meanwhile, Barry Alexander Brown provides BlacKkKlansman with the kind of tight, crisp editing thrillers thrive on, and if the film picks up steam, he could be one to watch (or not, as again, this award will be presented during a commercial break).

In my estimation, however, it comes down to John Ottman for Bohemian Rhapsody and Hank Corwin for Vice. Both films traverse an expansive amount of time, incorporating flashbacks and flash forwards, and each is a feat of continuity. Corwin was previously nominated for The Big Short, while this is the first nomination for Ottman, who is the usual editor for disgraced director Bryan Singer, though Singer’s crimes should not be held against Ottman.

Many in the punditry are predicting a win for Vice here, but I do not see it. While that film’s buzz has cooled off the closer we have gotten to the ceremony, Bohemian Rhapsody remains at the forefront of the conversation amid a DVD release this week and lead actor Rami Malek’s ever-presence on the awards circuit. With all the whip-cracking cuts to the copious music and elegant blending of concert and studio footage, I will back Ottman’s work on the Queen biopic.

Will win: Bohemian Rhapsody

Should win: BlacKkKlansman

Should have been here: First Man

Best Production Design

Nominees: Black Panther; The Favourite; First Man; Mary Poppins Returns; Roma

Four period pieces and a fantasy, here is a group that is not exactly stepping outside its wheelhouse. At the same time, these nominees are as different as they are impressive, each bringing to vivid life the worlds they are eager to depict.

Fiona Crombie’s and Alice Felton’s work on The Favourite is the most traditional nominee among these, as a period piece set in the halls of British royalty, and it may very well be our winner. It would be hard to deny the film is a sumptuous feast for the eyes, though its most slam-dunk proposition may be the next category down.

Eugenio Cabellero and Barbara Enriquez recreated entire blocks of Mexico City for Roma, bringing a richness of detail and truth to the proceedings, while Nathan Crowley and Kathy Lucas brought the Apollo missions to life in First Man for a generation that barely remembers a time before “One small step.” John Myhre and Gordon Sim created a delightful world for Mary Poppins Returns, though the lengthy animated sequence at the film’s center may confuse the point for some voters.

Finally, Hannah Beachler and Jay Hart made the Wakanda of Black Panther a real place, as futuristic and fantastical as it may seem. It should also be said Beachler is the first African American to be nominated in this category, which should be considered an honor for her and a glaring oversight throughout the years by the Academy.

If you are asking me for a prediction, go with the clearly popular, heavily nominated period piece set mostly in the big, fancy castle, but watch out for a Black Panther-sized upset.

Will win: The Favourite

Should win: The Favourite

Should have been here: The Death of Stalin

Best Costume Design

Nominees: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs; Black Panther; The Favourite; Mary Poppins Returns; Mary Queen of Scots

Even more beholden to period work than the production designers, the costumers did not even bother nominating a worthy contemporary film such as Crazy Rich Asians. But if La La Land, which lost this award to Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them two years ago, could not break the stranglehold – no contemporary film has won since The Adventures of Priscilla, Queen of the Desert in 1993 (1994 ceremony) – this wasn’t going to be the year.

Academy favorite Sandy Powell (14 nominations, three wins) is a double nominee this year for The Favourite and Mary Poppins Returns, which also happen to be the two best designed films of the year. Don’t expect Powell to split her vote, as Academy members are likely to rally behind The Favourite and give it the deserved win here.

Alexandra Byrne’s costumes for Mary Queen of Scots are wading in the same territory as The Favourite but for the far less-acclaimed film. Mary Zophres’ The Ballad of Buster Scruggs is a bit of an outsider nominee, though not Zophres herself. She was previously nominated for the above-mentioned La La Land and the Coen Brothers’ other pure western, True Grit.

The spoiler could be Ruth E. Carter’s stunning Afro-futurist designs for Black Panther. Expect to read that a lot in this space, as Black Panther is a threat anywhere it is nominated, up to and including the big award. All it had to do was get to the dance, and the work will speak for itself.

Still, old habits die hard and Powell is a deserving and likely winner for the crazed, distressed rags of a monarchy in decline.

Will win: The Favourite

Should win: The Favourite

Should have been here: BlacKkKlansman

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Nominees: Border; Mary Queen of Scots; Vice

It is a fascinating quirk of processes like these when for the third time in four years, an obscure (to Americans, at least) Swedish film is nominated in this category. The previous two times, it was the team of Love Larson and Eva von Bahr for The 100-year-old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared and A Man Called Ove. This time around, we have Göran Lundström and Pamela Goldammer for the strange and hypnotic Border. Like their countrymen, this team is the least likely winner, simply for the low profile of the film, but the work is tremendous and there is clearly something going right in the Swedish makeup and hairstyling community.

One need only look at the posters and other promotional materials to understand how Jenny Shircore, Marc Pilcher, and Jessica Brooks landed here for Mary Queen of Scots. The work on Margot Robbie alone likely would have been enough to score the nomination – though I actually found the prosthetic nose Robbie wore distracting. The film, however, is not held in high regard, and while their fellow craftsmen were always a strong bet to recognize this team, the Academy at large is less so.

That leaves Vice, the Best Picture nominee featuring showy prosthetics and hairstyling work throughout, supplementing another of Christian Bale’s miraculous – and disgusting, if you ask my wife – physical transformations. It has been written in this space before, but when there is a lone Best Picture nominee among this group, that is your winner almost every time. The last time that logic did not hold was 1997, when Titanic lost to Men in Black. Men in Black, however, was a showy, popular blockbuster. Vice faces no such competition.

Will win: Vice

Should win: Vice

Should have been here: Suspiria

Best Visual Effects

Nominees: Avengers: Infinity War; Christopher Robin; First Man; Ready Player One; Solo: A Stars Wars Story

Boy, the industry really held those kinda-funky rhinos against Black Panther this season. After the visual effects society most shied away from the Best Picture-nominated blockbuster, the Academy’s visual effects branch went a step further and failed even to nominate it. The snub seems a bit extreme when so much of the rest of the film was so brilliantly rendered, but here we are.

Avengers: Infinity War is holding down the Marvel Cinematic Universe spot this year, and while the MCU has been well represented among the past nominees, no Marvel film has won this award – not counting Sam Raimi’s Spider-Man 2, which won in 2002, prior to the rise of the modern Marvel universe. This year, however, it feels as though Avengers: Infinity War is likely to win almost by default.

Solo: A Star Wars Story was always a good bet for a nomination, considering every Star Wars film but Episode III has been named in this category. The nominating committee clearly likes these films, but the Academy has cooled to them, and no film outside the original trilogy has taken home gold here. The least acclaimed of the new-generation Star Wars films is unlikely to break that streak.

Steven Spielberg’s not-well-loved Ready Player One adaptation certainly features a lot of effects work, but to my eyes, much of it was dingy and unpleasant. First Man would be a deserving winner, but one fears its effects are too seamlessly integrated into the film to be noticed for their wonder – an ironic fate, to be sure. Meanwhile, Christopher Robin’s fuzzy Hundred Acre Wood residents are brought to life with all the charm one would hope for. I cannot let the moment pass without saying the film is an unmitigated joy, a nostalgia-inducing pleasure from beginning to end, though that will do nothing to carry it to the win.

Unless we are looking at another year as strange as that time Ex Machina swooped in and snatched this award, it appears Marvel will finally find the winner’s circle. Of course, none of these would be as shocking as that Ex Machina victory, which remains unlikely to be topped in that regard.

Will win: Avengers: Infinity War

Should win: First Man

Should have been here: Black Panther

Next time on the Countdown to the Oscars, we tackle What You Can Hear.