Welcome to this year’s edition of Last Cinema Standing’s Countdown to the Oscars, where we will break down each of the 23 categories, analyze the films, and make some guesses at their awards prospects.
Best Supporting Actor
The nominees are:
Sterling K. Brown in American Fiction
Robert De Niro in Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr. in Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling in Barbie
Mark Ruffalo in Poor Things
Sterling K. Brown in American Fiction
In American Fiction, Brown plays Cliff, brother of the uptight protagonist Monk (Jeffrey Wright). We spend so much time with the buttoned-up Monk that when we meet Cliff, it’s like a breath of fresh air. Finally, someone willing to let loose and just be himself. Cliff has his own set of personal issues, as well, but compared to his brother, he’s a picture of enlightenment. First-time nominee Brown also imbues the character with such heart and humanity that we are able to look past the flaws and see the wounded but loving person underneath it all.
Robert De Niro in Killers of the Flower Moon
As remarkable as it may seem for someone widely considered one of the best, if not the best, actors of his generation, I think we may be at a point where we’re undervaluing De Niro. Now, to some degree, he did it to himself. Years of crummy studio comedies and nondescript thrillers with names like Heist and Killing Season have not helped him maintain an A+ credit rating in the minds of viewers. But, with good material and a good director to motivate him (how about good friend Martin Scorsese?), De Niro can absolutely still reach into his bag and pull out a performance you’ve never seen before.
In Killers of the Flower Moon, he plays, for all intents and purposes, the devil. He fashions William Hale, the mastermind of the Osage Reign of Terror, as a man of fake beneficence, masking a calm, calculated menace. It’s the darkest kind of evil, and De Niro plays it so subtly, so masterfully that you could almost mistake it for charm. It is some of the best work the actor has delivered in the latter section of his career.
This marks De Niro’s eighth career Oscar nomination, which actually seems low for a performer of his caliber and renown. It’s tied for 10th-most all time. He has five nominations for Best Actor and one win for Raging Bull and three nominations for Supporting Actor along with one win for The Godfather Part II.
Robert Downey Jr. in Oppenheimer
As depicted in this movie, Lewis Strauss is the perfect antagonist to J. Robert Oppenheimer. He’s a career bureaucrat with aspirations of political power who sees Oppenheimer as a means to an end. He uses him, betrays him, and discards him, all with a smile. Downey is one of the best actors in the business at killing with a smile, and he puts that power to great effect here in one of his finest dramatic roles.
It’s hard to believe it’s been 31 years since Downey received his first Oscar nomination for playing Charlie Chaplin in Richard Attenborough’s Chaplin. He’s lived multiple lifetimes since then, seeing his star rise and fall and rise again amid a battle with addiction. He became the face of the superhero boom that has lasted the better part of the past 15 years. He scored his second Oscar nomination in 2008 for Tropic Thunder at just about the last moment in history you could be rewarded for a performance in blackface. It’s been a helluva ride, and it appears the next stop on that journey is the Oscars stage.
Ryan Gosling in Barbie
There has been a lot of talk about Gosling’s Ken stealing the movie from Barbie. I wouldn’t go that far. Margot Robbie has the incredibly difficult task of holding the emotional center of the film together, while Gosling can mostly go for broke, getting the biggest laughs of the movie. This is not a knock on the performance, which is stellar, but it’s important that the record reflects: Robbie and Barbie own the Barbie movie. Gosling is just Ken. And, that’s more than Kenough.
This is Gosling’s third career nomination. The first two were for Best Actor for Half Nelson and La La Land. It’s been thrilling to watch Gosling avoid the pitfalls that come with Hollywood stardom. After The Notebook, he could easily have become the next big romantic lead, playing the hunky guy in a bunch of middling fare that would go straight to Netflix these days. Instead, he has made it a point to choose daring projects with exciting directors, and we’re all better off for it.
Mark Ruffalo in Poor Things
Ruffalo now has four Academy Award nominations, all for Supporting Actor. It’s a fascinating niche he has carved for himself in Hollywood. He could, of course, lead movies and has been a great leading man as recently as Todd Haynes’ Dark Waters in 2019. But, when you need an actor to take over one portion of a larger narrative and to do so with depth and nuance and gravitas, well, he’s your man.
In this case, it’s the middle section of Bella Baxter’s (Emma Stone) journey, during which Ruffalo’s Duncan Wedderburn represents both the freedom of a larger world and the repression of social graces. Ruffalo is perfect as a man who thinks he has his world all figured out, then falls apart as soon as anything disrupts this assumption. The performance is sexy and strange and volatile in ways we have rarely seen Ruffalo on screen.
The final analysis
There’s really no second choice here. It’s Downey all the way. At the beginning of the season and throughout the critics awards announcements, it seemed like there might be a bit of a race among Downey, Gosling, and even Ruffalo. But, once the major industry awards kicked off, Downey took the lead and never looked back.
Downey is very good in Oppenheimer, but this is undoubtedly a career achievement award, an opportunity to reward a beloved actor who has been in the game for 40 years and experienced all the ups and downs Hollywood has to offer. Sometimes, it’s just your time.
Will win: Robert Downey Jr. in Oppenheimer
Should win: Mark Ruffalo in Poor Things
Should have been here: Jamie Bell in All of Us Strangers
A note about my favorite snub: This could just as easily have been Paul Mescal for me from the same film as he is magnificent as the protagonist’s love interest and potential lifeline, but I give the edge to Bell. The former child star who won a BAFTA for best actor at 14 years old is stellar throughout the film but truly shines in a moment of reconciliation when he admits he, too, would likely have bullied his gay son had they known each other in school. The scene ends with a hug that just shatters your heart, and Bell plays it perfectly.
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