Welcome to this year’s edition of Last Cinema Standing’s Countdown to the Oscars, where we will break down each of the 23 categories, analyze the films, and make some guesses at their awards prospects.
Best Original Screenplay
The nominees are:
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Maestro
May December
Past Lives
Anatomy of a Fall
One of the most shocking movie moments of the year comes about midway through Anatomy of a Fall, and it’s probably not what you’re thinking. It’s the moment when the story is really picking up steam. A death has taken place. An investigation is getting underway. We’ve met all the major players. It feels like we’ve got all the momentum in the world. Then, a title appears on the screen: One year later. Just when you thought you had your footing, the rug is pulled from underneath you. It’s a remarkable piece of dramatic storytelling.
Co-writers Justine Triet and Arthur Harari have filled their script with these kinds of bold, brilliant structural choices. It is a high-wire act that keeps you completely enraptured from the first moment to the last. This screenplay is truly one of the marvels of the year.
The Holdovers
This is the first feature script to make it to the big screen for longtime television writer and producer David Hemingson, and what a coming-out party. The Holdovers is a story we’ve seen before about an uptight teacher and an unruly student who learn a lot from each other and become better people through their connection. However, Hemingson’s script is deeper and richer than just about any of the similar movies that have come before. These characters feel like fully realized people, and we come to care deeply about all of them.
Maestro
The performances in Maestro are lovely, and it’s a handsomely mounted production, but for me, the whole thing falls apart at the script. As constructed, this movie is a love story, and as much as it’s a very nice love story between two fascinating, intelligent, strong-willed artists, the romance is about the 10th most interesting thing about Leonard Bernstein’s life.
Now, I applaud any drama about an important historical figure that does not go the traditional cradle-to-grave biopic route. We need more movies that take chances, but this feels perhaps too clever by half. Bernstein lived one of the most interesting lives of the 20th century, and co-writers Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer yada-yada over great swathes of the most interesting stuff. It’s a big swing, and maybe it’s not fair to call it a complete miss. Let’s say it’s a foul tip.
Cooper has one previous screenplay nomination for his adaptation of A Star Is Born in 2018, while Singer previously won this category for co-writing Best Picture winner Spotlight with Tom McCarthy in 2015.
May December
This is a great script, but it’s a huge bummer that Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik are the film’s lone representatives at the Oscars. May December features three of the best performances of the year, a madcap score that I’ve written about in this series, and the fabulous work of director Todd Haynes. I suppose the story about the parasitic relationship between performers and their subjects hit a little too close to home for Academy members. Good on the writers for finding space for a movie that deserved a better awards fate than this.
Past Lives
Once this Oscars season is done and I can divorce myself from the hubbub around the awards race, I need to go back and give Celine Song’s indie darling another shot. I saw it in theaters when it first came out and just couldn’t connect with it. I found the characters largely passive and unlikeable. Something about the story just hit me in the wrong way. Song is obviously a talent, and I’m excited to give this movie another try down the line.
The final analysis
I’m going to predict The Holdovers here, but the surprise screenplay win by Anatomy of a Fall at the Golden Globes certainly gives me pause. The Academy clearly loves Triet’s film, and it sure seems like it should win something, and this would be the most likely place for a victory. Just twice this century has a foreign language film won this award, though large passages of Anatomy of a Fall are in English. Previous recent winners include Parasite in 2019 and Talk to Her in 2002. That said, The Holdovers is the safe, traditional bet. It’s an old-school movie done well, and sometimes, that’s all it takes.
Will win: The Holdovers
Should win: Anatomy of a Fall
Should have been here: Barbie
A note about my favorite snub: You know my feelings on this one. They can all be found right here. It’s hilarious. It’s smart. It’s poignant. In a word, it’s original. There’s a better than even chance Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach would have won this category had Barbie been properly placed by the Academy. But, it wasn’t, so they won’t. They’ll come for this thing one of these days. Mark my words.
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