Welcome to this year’s edition of Last Cinema Standing’s Countdown to the Oscars, where we will break down each of the 23 categories, analyze the films, and make some guesses at their awards prospects.
Best Picture
The nominees are:
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
For the second year in a row, the winner of the big prize feels like a foregone conclusion, and as I predicted last year, this time around, it doesn’t bother me so much. Because Oppenheimer is an excellent film and a worthy winner, even if it’s not the winner I’d pick necessarily, this whole process has mostly been a pleasant stroll through an excellent year at the movies.
This kind of Best Picture winner is becoming less and less common as the years go on: a big-budget historical epic from a marquee studio that prioritizes the theatrical experience and makes boatloads of money. The Academy Awards have been in indie-land for a while now, which has produced some excellent Best Picture winners but has perhaps diminished the award in the eyes of a public baffled by some of the more arty and outré choices.
But, a movie like Oppenheimer is exactly the kind of movie the average moviegoer imagines when he thinks of a Best Picture winner. Over the years, people have complained a lot about the scourge of “Oscar bait,” but my impression is that most people don’t actually know what they mean when they say that. Sure, the occasional Judy will slip through the cracks, but by and large, the Academy Awards are far different today than they were even 20 years ago.
While there is plenty of room for improvement, the stories and storytellers are more diverse, the styles of the nominated films are more daring, and the variety of films being rewarded is greater than ever. It’s a golden age for the gold standard of Hollywood filmmaking, and the industry is better off for it.
There is a pretty clear consensus on this year’s winner, but in an effort to give every nominee its moment in the sun, we will still rank them here from least likely to most likely to win:
Past Lives
This has become a more common occurrence since the Academy expanded its lineup to 10 nominees – the small, well written indie sliding into the Best Picture slate on the strength of members’ general love for the film. These films don’t usually show up in the crafts categories. Sometimes, they pick up an acting nomination or two. Sometimes, they don’t. Regardless of any of that, the filmmakers can always say they had a Best Picture nominee, and that’s not nothing.
American Fiction
If Cord Jefferson keeps making movies with this much wit and heart and intelligence, he’ll keep getting invited to the Oscars. American Fiction is exactly the kind of movie that benefits from this kind of awards attention. I know people who would never have sought it out but for hearing that it was in the mix for a couple Oscars. That’s the power of the Academy Awards. That’s also why it’s so important for the Academy to recognize different voices and amplify voices that otherwise would be drowned out by the din of a fast-moving industry. I look forward to whatever Jefferson makes next.
Maestro
It’s going to happen one of these days. Bradley Cooper is going to make his Oppenheimer, a film that is undeniable, that will finally carry him up onto the Oscars stage. He’ll probably win for directing, maybe even acting, too. That future is out there because Cooper is too talented and cares too much to stop making the art he loves. His movies really haven’t hit for me yet, but I’m never going to knock a filmmaker for following his passion.
Barbie
On paper, it’s pretty remarkable that Barbie made it to the dance at all. On paper, it’s a two-hour toy commercial produced by Mattel. On paper, it’s another chink in the armor that keeps art safe from the data-driven, finance-bro hell the rest of us find ourselves living in. But, that’s on paper. Greta Gerwig and Margot Robbie weren’t worried about how things might look on paper. They were concerned with bringing to life a smart, funny, insightful fantasy about how hard it is to be human, even if you’re a doll. It’s a beautiful statement and further proof that Gerwig is one of her generation’s finest filmmakers.
The Zone of Interest
There should be a place for something this experimental every year. Jonathan Glazer’s Holocaust drama looks different from any World War II movie you have ever seen. It sounds different. It feels different. Largely, that’s because Glazer just is a different kind of filmmaker, unafraid to take chances, to challenge the audience, and to reflect the worst of our shared history back at us. This is a monumental achievement that will be studied and discussed for years to come.
Anatomy of a Fall
From 1946-2010, just 10 films won the Palme d’Or at the Cannes Film Festival and got nominated for Best Picture. Of the past 12 Palme d’Or winners since 2011, it has happened five times. Anatomy of a Fall is the latest film to pull this impressive double act and further evidence of expanding tastes within the Academy and a willingness to look beyond American shores for great films. And, make no mistake: Justine Triet’s courtroom thriller is a great film. Simply put, it’s one of the best of the year.
Poor Things
Yorgos Lanthimos’ latest film might be one of the best examples of: Once you’re in the club, you’re in the club. How else to explain the love for a two-hour sci-fi fantasy about a woman’s sexual and spiritual awakening that features more explicit sex scenes than you can count on your two hands? The Academy embraced Lanthimos’ The Favourite back in 2018, itself more subversive than it might first appear, and now he’s in the club, which is great if it means he’s going to bring more weirdos like this along with him.
The Holdovers
This is the kind of quiet, generous movie that people can love easily, and it will appear near the top of a lot of ballots, if not right at the top. If Oppenheimer somehow doesn’t win a majority of votes from the first ballot, interesting possibilities open up, like everybody’s second-favorite film of the year possibly moving into pole position. I’m not saying that’s going to happen, but it’s far from the least likely scenario.
Killers of the Flower Moon
A favorite discussion type among film fans is: What director has the best four-film run? Or, what director started their career best? Or something similar. A rarely discussed topic is: What director ended his career on the best run? Unfortunately, even great directors have been known to toss out a few clunkers toward the ends of their careers. That’s why Quentin Tarantino has been adamant about retiring after 10 films. He wants to protect his legacy.
With that in mind, look at Scorsese’s four most recent films: Killers of the Flower Moon, The Irishman, Silence, and The Wolf of Wall Street. I want Scorsese to continue making movies forever, but if he announced his retirement tomorrow, there’s an argument to be made that this is the greatest closing chapter to a career ever. None of those movies will have won Best Picture, but Scorsese is beyond needing our validation. It’s his world. We’re just lucky to live in it.
Oppenheimer
Going back to 2018, Oppenheimer slots in quite nicely behind Parasite as the second-best winner of Best Picture in recent times. It’s a little tougher to challenge the winners from 2013-2017, when the Academy went on what I believe to be an all-timer run: 12 Years a Slave, Birdman, Spotlight, Moonlight, and The Shape of Water. Not a clunker among them and at least two among the greatest Best Picture winners of all time.
Anyway, it’s probably too early to start talking legacy. Let’s let Christopher Nolan and team celebrate their moment without viewing it through the lens of history. There will be plenty of time to talk about that later. For now, we can simply marvel at a movie that so captured the imagination of the public that for about a month there, we were all talking about J. Robert Oppenheimer (and Barbie, too). That’s what great movies do. They capture the imagination. And, that’s what great Best Picture winners do, too. Oppenheimer will be a great Best Picture winner.
Will win: Oppenheimer
Should win: Killers of the Flower Moon
Should have been here: All of Us Strangers
A note about my favorite snub: I named Andrew Haigh’s All of Us Strangers the best film of the year, so yes, I think it should be in the Best Picture lineup. Even when there was buzz around the actors and the screenplay, a nomination in the top category was always a long shot. That’s okay. Not every great film makes it to the big show. I hope more people check out this gem of a film anyway. It’s a life-changer.
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