Countdown to the Oscars: Best Picture

Welcome to this year’s edition of Last Cinema Standing’s Countdown to the Oscars, where we will break down each of the 23 categories, analyze the films, and make some guesses at their awards prospects.

Best Picture

The nominees are:

American Fiction

Anatomy of a Fall

Barbie

The Holdovers

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Past Lives

Poor Things

The Zone of Interest

For the second year in a row, the winner of the big prize feels like a foregone conclusion, and as I predicted last year, this time around, it doesn’t bother me so much. Because Oppenheimer is an excellent film and a worthy winner, even if it’s not the winner I’d pick necessarily, this whole process has mostly been a pleasant stroll through an excellent year at the movies.

This kind of Best Picture winner is becoming less and less common as the years go on: a big-budget historical epic from a marquee studio that prioritizes the theatrical experience and makes boatloads of money. The Academy Awards have been in indie-land for a while now, which has produced some excellent Best Picture winners but has perhaps diminished the award in the eyes of a public baffled by some of the more arty and outré choices. 

But, a movie like Oppenheimer is exactly the kind of movie the average moviegoer imagines when he thinks of a Best Picture winner. Over the years, people have complained a lot about the scourge of “Oscar bait,” but my impression is that most people don’t actually know what they mean when they say that. Sure, the occasional Judy will slip through the cracks, but by and large, the Academy Awards are far different today than they were even 20 years ago. 

While there is plenty of room for improvement, the stories and storytellers are more diverse, the styles of the nominated films are more daring, and the variety of films being rewarded is greater than ever. It’s a golden age for the gold standard of Hollywood filmmaking, and the industry is better off for it.

There is a pretty clear consensus on this year’s winner, but in an effort to give every nominee its moment in the sun, we will still rank them here from least likely to most likely to win:

Past Lives

This has become a more common occurrence since the Academy expanded its lineup to 10 nominees – the small, well written indie sliding into the Best Picture slate on the strength of members’ general love for the film. These films don’t usually show up in the crafts categories. Sometimes, they pick up an acting nomination or two. Sometimes, they don’t. Regardless of any of that, the filmmakers can always say they had a Best Picture nominee, and that’s not nothing.

American Fiction

If Cord Jefferson keeps making movies with this much wit and heart and intelligence, he’ll keep getting invited to the Oscars. American Fiction is exactly the kind of movie that benefits from this kind of awards attention. I know people who would never have sought it out but for hearing that it was in the mix for a couple Oscars. That’s the power of the Academy Awards. That’s also why it’s so important for the Academy to recognize different voices and amplify voices that otherwise would be drowned out by the din of a fast-moving industry. I look forward to whatever Jefferson makes next.

Maestro

It’s going to happen one of these days. Bradley Cooper is going to make his Oppenheimer, a film that is undeniable, that will finally carry him up onto the Oscars stage. He’ll probably win for directing, maybe even acting, too. That future is out there because Cooper is too talented and cares too much to stop making the art he loves. His movies really haven’t hit for me yet, but I’m never going to knock a filmmaker for following his passion.

Barbie

On paper, it’s pretty remarkable that Barbie made it to the dance at all. On paper, it’s a two-hour toy commercial produced by Mattel. On paper, it’s another chink in the armor that keeps art safe from the data-driven, finance-bro hell the rest of us find ourselves living in. But, that’s on paper. Greta Gerwig and Margot Robbie weren’t worried about how things might look on paper. They were concerned with bringing to life a smart, funny, insightful fantasy about how hard it is to be human, even if you’re a doll. It’s a beautiful statement and further proof that Gerwig is one of her generation’s finest filmmakers.

The Zone of Interest

There should be a place for something this experimental every year. Jonathan Glazer’s Holocaust drama looks different from any World War II movie you have ever seen. It sounds different. It feels different. Largely, that’s because Glazer just is a different kind of filmmaker, unafraid to take chances, to challenge the audience, and to reflect the worst of our shared history back at us. This is a monumental achievement that will be studied and discussed for years to come.

Anatomy of a Fall

From 1946-2010, just 10 films won the Palme d’Or at the Cannes Film Festival and got nominated for Best Picture. Of the past 12 Palme d’Or winners since 2011, it has happened five times. Anatomy of a Fall is the latest film to pull this impressive double act and further evidence of expanding tastes within the Academy and a willingness to look beyond American shores for great films. And, make no mistake: Justine Triet’s courtroom thriller is a great film. Simply put, it’s one of the best of the year.

Poor Things

Yorgos Lanthimos’ latest film might be one of the best examples of: Once you’re in the club, you’re in the club. How else to explain the love for a two-hour sci-fi fantasy about a woman’s sexual and spiritual awakening that features more explicit sex scenes than you can count on your two hands? The Academy embraced Lanthimos’ The Favourite back in 2018, itself more subversive than it might first appear, and now he’s in the club, which is great if it means he’s going to bring more weirdos like this along with him.

The Holdovers

This is the kind of quiet, generous movie that people can love easily, and it will appear near the top of a lot of ballots, if not right at the top. If Oppenheimer somehow doesn’t win a majority of votes from the first ballot, interesting possibilities open up, like everybody’s second-favorite film of the year possibly moving into pole position. I’m not saying that’s going to happen, but it’s far from the least likely scenario.

Killers of the Flower Moon

A favorite discussion type among film fans is: What director has the best four-film run? Or, what director started their career best? Or something similar. A rarely discussed topic is: What director ended his career on the best run? Unfortunately, even great directors have been known to toss out a few clunkers toward the ends of their careers. That’s why Quentin Tarantino has been adamant about retiring after 10 films. He wants to protect his legacy.

With that in mind, look at Scorsese’s four most recent films: Killers of the Flower Moon, The Irishman, Silence, and The Wolf of Wall Street. I want Scorsese to continue making movies forever, but if he announced his retirement tomorrow, there’s an argument to be made that this is the greatest closing chapter to a career ever. None of those movies will have won Best Picture, but Scorsese is beyond needing our validation. It’s his world. We’re just lucky to live in it.

Oppenheimer

Going back to 2018, Oppenheimer slots in quite nicely behind Parasite as the second-best winner of Best Picture in recent times. It’s a little tougher to challenge the winners from 2013-2017, when the Academy went on what I believe to be an all-timer run: 12 Years a Slave, Birdman, Spotlight, Moonlight, and The Shape of Water. Not a clunker among them and at least two among the greatest Best Picture winners of all time.

Anyway, it’s probably too early to start talking legacy. Let’s let Christopher Nolan and team celebrate their moment without viewing it through the lens of history. There will be plenty of time to talk about that later. For now, we can simply marvel at a movie that so captured the imagination of the public that for about a month there, we were all talking about J. Robert Oppenheimer (and Barbie, too). That’s what great movies do. They capture the imagination. And, that’s what great Best Picture winners do, too. Oppenheimer will be a great Best Picture winner.

Will win: Oppenheimer

Should win: Killers of the Flower Moon

Should have been here: All of Us Strangers

A note about my favorite snub: I named Andrew Haigh’s All of Us Strangers the best film of the year, so yes, I think it should be in the Best Picture lineup. Even when there was buzz around the actors and the screenplay, a nomination in the top category was always a long shot. That’s okay. Not every great film makes it to the big show. I hope more people check out this gem of a film anyway. It’s a life-changer.

Countdown to the Oscars: Best Actor

Welcome to this year’s edition of Last Cinema Standing’s Countdown to the Oscars, where we will break down each of the 23 categories, analyze the films, and make some guesses at their awards prospects.

Best Actor

The nominees are:

Bradley Cooper in Maestro

Colman Domingo in Rustin

Paul Giamatti in The Holdovers

Cillian Murphy in Oppenheimer

Jeffrey Wright in American Fiction

Bradley Cooper in Maestro

A quite silly narrative has built up around Cooper this season, which is that he is desperate for an Academy Award and that desperation is turning off voters. First of all, Cooper has: 1) directed back-to-back Best Picture nominees; 2) starred in eight films nominated for Best Picture; 3) been the lead of one of the most successful comedy franchises of all time (The Hangover trilogy); and 4) as Rocket Raccoon, been a key part of a wildly successful superhero trilogy and the larger universe around those movies. What I’m saying is that Cooper is not desperate for anything.

Furthermore, he wants an Oscar. So what? So does 90 percent of this town. The truly ridiculous part is that it’s not as if he has come out and said definitively how important it may or may not be to him to win one. Cynics simply prefer to read his genuine enthusiasm about the moviemaking process as desperation. But, even if he did just state outright that he wants a little gold statue, I would find that honesty refreshing. Bette Davis once said she’d like to have the record for most Oscars. I love it. More stars should be open with how they feel about winning an Oscar. Might help the show. Certainly couldn’t hurt it.

Cooper is great in a movie I found to be generally lacking, but there’s no lack of effort on his part. It’s all up there on the screen – the hours in the makeup chair, the months learning to conduct, the years to bring this story to theaters. Cooper works hard and he cares. If that’s embarrassing to a certain subset of folks, that sounds more like their problem than his. Cooper has been nominated for Best Actor twice before this for American Sniper and Silver Linings Playbook. He also has a Supporting Actor nod for American Hustle. Cooper’s going to win a statue someday, and that’s going to be a great day for him and for movies.

Colman Domingo in Rustin

From my piece on the best performances of 2023, where Domingo landed at No. 9: “Domingo has always been a chameleon in prominent supporting roles, whether as the menacing pimp in zola or as a beat-down jazz musician in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. At last, with Rustin, he gets a showcase for the full breadth of his talents. As civil rights hero Bayard Rustin, who begs, borrows, and steals to organize the 1963 March on Washington, Domingo never steps wrong. A Broadway star, Domingo knows how to deliver a big speech to the back row, but he is just as good in moments of quiet sadness as he struggles with his identity and a movement that wishes he would sit down and shut up.”

Paul Giamatti in The Holdovers

If I were to ask you how many Academy Award nominations Giamatti has, what number would you say? He’s been turning in fabulous work in popular, critically acclaimed films for nearly three decades now. It’s gotta be four or five or something like that, right? No. The Holdovers is just his second career nomination. The first came in 2006 for Best Supporting Actor for CInderella Man. Before and since then, until now, nothing, though his snub for Sideways remains one of the 21st century’s most baffling Oscars omissions.

The Holdovers is a perfect showcase for Giamatti, who specializes in sadsacks who learn a little something about themselves from the people in their lives. The teacher he plays in this movie opens his heart so gradually that by the time it happens, you can’t understand how you could have misjudged him. The heart, the soul, and the care that drive him, those things were there all along. He just needed a couple other lonely people to show him that they’re worth embracing and sharing. Just lovely work that could only have been done by Giamatti.

Cillian Murphy in Oppenheimer

Here’s some of what I wrote when I put Murphy at No. 3 on my list of the top performances of the year: “Every story beat, every thematic thread [director Christopher] Nolan is hoping to pull on, it’s all right there in Murphy’s sunken eyes and gaunt, angular visage. When you’ve got this, you don’t need anything else. The performance, however, is more than that thousand-yard stare you’ve seen a hundred times if you spend any time on the internet at all. It’s also in the frenetic energy Murphy brings to Oppenheimer’s moments of pure inspiration. It’s in the quiet confidence he displays as his world comes crashing down around him. It’s in every moment of the film. Oppenheimer is Nolan’s masterpiece because Oppenheimer is Murphy’s masterpiece.”

Jeffrey Wright in American Fiction

Wright’s Monk and Giamatti’s character in The Holdovers have a lot in common. They’re both teachers who have let their bitterness about the world get in the way of making genuine human connection. They’re both frustrated writers. And, they both just need to let a little love into their lives. The difference is a matter of tone. Where The Holdovers is a quiet dramedy, American Fiction is largely a broad satire. Each man calibrates his performance to the style of the film he’s in beautifully, and it’s no mistake that they have both landed nominations.

For Wright, this first Oscar nod feels like a long time coming. From the first time he practically jumped off the screen as the titular lead of Basquiat in 1996, it was clear Wright was a special talent. Hollywood has mostly limited him to supporting roles in franchises like The Hunger Games, the most recent James Bond flick, and the Robert Pattinson Batman movie. With American Fiction, the spotlight is fully on Wright, and he doesn’t waste a minute of it. We can hope this kicks off a string of great leading roles for the venerable performer.

The final analysis

After Giamatti won the Critics Choice Award and he and Murphy split the Golden Globes, it appeared as though we could be headed for a toss-up here. Then, Murphy won the BAFTA and the SAG award, Oppenheimer won for ensemble, and all the momentum just shifted to Murphy. I don’t know what Giamatti’s future at the Oscars holds. He sure seems like an actor people would like to give one of these statues to, but it’s not going to be this year. This time around, it’s Murphy’s to lose.

Will win: Cillian Murphy in Oppenheimer

Should win: Cillian Murphy in Oppenheimer

Should have been here: Andrew Scott in All of Us Strangers

A note about my favorite snub: I named Scott’s work in All of Us Strangers the best performance of the year, and it has only grown in my estimation since I wrote about it two months ago. It’s a performance that has the power to shatter you in one moment, then piece you back together in the next. Scott plays the pain and loneliness and longing about as well as anyone ever has, but Andrew Haigh’s film is ultimately about hope and letting love guide our lives. Scott hits these notes perfectly, as well, and there is never a time when we are not right there with the character, rooting for him through every beautiful, heartbreaking moment.

Countdown to the Oscars: Best Supporting Actress

Welcome to this year’s edition of Last Cinema Standing’s Countdown to the Oscars, where we will break down each of the 23 categories, analyze the films, and make some guesses at their awards prospects.

Best Supporting Actress

The nominees are:

Emily Blunt in Oppenheimer

Danielle Brooks in The Color Purple

America Ferrara in Barbie

Jodie Foster in Nyad

Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers

Emily Blunt in Oppenheimer

Blunt is a very talented actress who has been very good in a lot of things. I am a particular fan of her take on Mary Poppins, and I think she’s pretty pivotal to the success of Looper. So, I don’t begrudge her any accolades or recognition. That said, this is a bad performance and, along with the terrible way Kitty Oppenheimer is written, the worst part of an otherwise fabulous movie. We’ve seen the long-suffering wife of a great man in movies countless times. In a fun twist, this time, she’s a drunk, and Blunt plays the character’s alcoholism in the most paint-by-numbers way possible. It’s like drunk wife bingo.

There’s been a lot of talk about the “great scene” when she turns the tables on the lawyer attempting to railroad her husband in the kangaroo court that forms much of the spine of the movie. I don’t see it. Her victory, if that’s what you want to call it, is pedantic and petty. She calls him out on a point of grammar, which okay, is kind of fun, but there’s no substance there. We’ve been building to this moment, and it just fizzles out.

This is Blunt’s first Academy Award nomination, and as a flashy role in a major Oscar player, it makes sense. With four individual film nominations at the Screen Actors Guild Awards, her peers obviously like and appreciate her work. So, it stands to reason that she’ll make it back to the big show, hopefully for work more befitting her talents next time.

Danielle Brooks in The Color Purple

If you watched Orange Is the New Black back in the early days of Netflix getting into original series, then you were already aware that Brooks has the goods. For everyone else, let The Color Purple serve as your notice. This is a performer we’re going to be talking about for a long time. Brooks brings to the screen her Tony-nominated work as Sofia in this musical adaptation of the Alice Walker novel. Brooks also won a Grammy for the role originated by Oprah Winfrey in the Steven Spielberg film from 1985.

Brooks’ Sofia is full of passion and fire and humanity, and damn can she sing. When she busts out “Hell No!” you just want to stand up and shout along with her. This is a major talent doing starmaking work, and one hopes this nomination leads to more of the kinds of roles she deserves.

America Ferrera in Barbie

From her screen debut in the wonderful Real Women Have Curves to her Emmy-winning work on Ugly Betty to today, Ferrera has been an absolute force in the industry. She has used her platform to lift up fellow Latinx performers, to speak out on national political issues, and to be a voice for women in the industry. She brings all of this intelligence and fearlessness to the role of Gloria in Barbie. 

When she delivers the big monologue toward the end of the film, we know she comes by these thoughts and feelings honestly, and the film is better for that knowledge. Her speech about the expectations placed on women in modern society has been much praised, discussed, and debated. Only a great speech can stand up to so much scrutiny, and only a great performer can make a great speech work this well.

Jodie Foster in Nyad

It has been 29 years since Foster’s last Academy Award nomination, which came for Nell in 1994. Before that, she had already won two Best Actress statues, for The Silence of the Lambs in 1991 and The Accused in 1988. And, of course, there’s her Supporting Actress nomination for Taxi Driver at the age of 13 in 1976. She’s a brilliant performer and talented multihyphenate who has had one of the most enviable careers in Hollywood.

And, you know what? She’s pretty damn good in Nyad, a movie built solely to showcase the performances of two remarkable actresses (we’ll get to Annette Bening later on in this series). Nyad is a mid-tier inspirational sports drama that falls into a category of something I call “do as I say, not as I do” movies. This is any movie where the main character is presented as an inspirational figure for doing something that is objectively ill-advised. See also: Free Solo and this year’s The Deepest Breath.

Foster plays Bonnie Stoll, the friend who coached Diana Nyad in her attempt to swim from Cuba to Florida – do as I say, not as I do – and their relationship is the heart of the movie. Foster plays Stoll as a strong, intelligent woman who will only take so much of her friend’s crap. It is a necessary counterpoint to the single-minded determination of Bening’s Nyad. There are supporting performances I liked better this year, but it’s hard to be too upset about Foster making it back to the dance.

Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers

I have covered some years with juggernauts, just unbeatable performances that immediately announced themselves as that year’s Oscar winner and never looked back. Helen Mirren in The Queen comes to mind as the slam dunk of all slam dunks. Well, to stick with the basketball metaphor, here’s your 2023 Slam Dunk Contest winner.

The second Randolph shows up on screen as Mary in The Holdovers, we understand fully everything we need to know about this woman. Randolph gives her a spark of life and truth. She feels real, so we invest in her story, and Randolph’s performance pays off that investment tenfold. I thought she deserved to be nominated back in 2019 for her lovely performance in Dolemite Is My Name, but sometimes, it’s hard to break through. This performance is the definition of a breakthrough, and it’s about time.

The final analysis

You may have noticed this year I am not digging into the stats and the history as much as I have in past years, particularly with the acting categories. Well, some years, the writing is on the wall, and you don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows. Randolph has won every conceivable award up to this point. There is no runner up. She will have her moment in the sun.

Will win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers

Should win: Danielle Brooks in The Color Purple

Should have been here: Claire Foy in All of Us Strangers

A note about my favorite snub: One of the absolute best scenes of the year is when the main character in Andrew Haigh’s queer romance comes out to his mother, played by Claire Foy. The mom loves her son, but she is a woman of her time, so she is filled with fear, confusion, concern, and even a little bit of disgust. Foy embodies all of this beautifully, never stepping wrong in a sequence that plays like two performers waltzing through a field of landmines. It could all blow up at any time. That it doesn’t is a testament to Foy, as well as her scene partner, whom we’ll get to soon.

Countdown to the Oscars: Best Original Screenplay

Welcome to this year’s edition of Last Cinema Standing’s Countdown to the Oscars, where we will break down each of the 23 categories, analyze the films, and make some guesses at their awards prospects.

Best Original Screenplay

The nominees are:

Anatomy of a Fall

The Holdovers

Maestro

May December

Past Lives

Anatomy of a Fall

One of the most shocking movie moments of the year comes about midway through Anatomy of a Fall, and it’s probably not what you’re thinking. It’s the moment when the story is really picking up steam. A death has taken place. An investigation is getting underway. We’ve met all the major players. It feels like we’ve got all the momentum in the world. Then, a title appears on the screen: One year later. Just when you thought you had your footing, the rug is pulled from underneath you. It’s a remarkable piece of dramatic storytelling.

Co-writers Justine Triet and Arthur Harari have filled their script with these kinds of bold, brilliant structural choices. It is a high-wire act that keeps you completely enraptured from the first moment to the last. This screenplay is truly one of the marvels of the year.

The Holdovers

This is the first feature script to make it to the big screen for longtime television writer and producer David Hemingson, and what a coming-out party. The Holdovers is a story we’ve seen before about an uptight teacher and an unruly student who learn a lot from each other and become better people through their connection. However, Hemingson’s script is deeper and richer than just about any of the similar movies that have come before. These characters feel like fully realized people, and we come to care deeply about all of them.

Maestro

The performances in Maestro are lovely, and it’s a handsomely mounted production, but for me, the whole thing falls apart at the script. As constructed, this movie is a love story, and as much as it’s a very nice love story between two fascinating, intelligent, strong-willed artists, the romance is about the 10th most interesting thing about Leonard Bernstein’s life.

Now, I applaud any drama about an important historical figure that does not go the traditional cradle-to-grave biopic route. We need more movies that take chances, but this feels perhaps too clever by half. Bernstein lived one of the most interesting lives of the 20th century, and co-writers Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer yada-yada over great swathes of the most interesting stuff. It’s a big swing, and maybe it’s not fair to call it a complete miss. Let’s say it’s a foul tip.

Cooper has one previous screenplay nomination for his adaptation of A Star Is Born in 2018, while Singer previously won this category for co-writing Best Picture winner Spotlight with Tom McCarthy in 2015.

May December

This is a great script, but it’s a huge bummer that Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik are the film’s lone representatives at the Oscars. May December features three of the best performances of the year, a madcap score that I’ve written about in this series, and the fabulous work of director Todd Haynes. I suppose the story about the parasitic relationship between performers and their subjects hit a little too close to home for Academy members. Good on the writers for finding space for a movie that deserved a better awards fate than this.

Past Lives

Once this Oscars season is done and I can divorce myself from the hubbub around the awards race, I need to go back and give Celine Song’s indie darling another shot. I saw it in theaters when it first came out and just couldn’t connect with it. I found the characters largely passive and unlikeable. Something about the story just hit me in the wrong way. Song is obviously a talent, and I’m excited to give this movie another try down the line.

The final analysis

I’m going to predict The Holdovers here, but the surprise screenplay win by Anatomy of a Fall at the Golden Globes certainly gives me pause. The Academy clearly loves Triet’s film, and it sure seems like it should win something, and this would be the most likely place for a victory. Just twice this century has a foreign language film won this award, though large passages of Anatomy of a Fall are in English. Previous recent winners include Parasite in 2019 and Talk to Her in 2002. That said, The Holdovers is the safe, traditional bet. It’s an old-school movie done well, and sometimes, that’s all it takes.

Will win: The Holdovers

Should win: Anatomy of a Fall

Should have been here: Barbie

A note about my favorite snub: You know my feelings on this one. They can all be found right here. It’s hilarious. It’s smart. It’s poignant. In a word, it’s original. There’s a better than even chance Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach would have won this category had Barbie been properly placed by the Academy. But, it wasn’t, so they won’t. They’ll come for this thing one of these days. Mark my words.