Welcome to this year’s edition of Last Cinema Standing’s Countdown to the Oscars, where we will break down each of the 23 categories, analyze the films, and make some guesses at their awards prospects.
Best Actress
The nominees are:
Annette Bening in Nyad
Lily Gladstone in Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Hüller in Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan in Maestro
Emma Stone in Poor Things
Annette Bening in Nyad
Bening is one of the more prominent cases of Oscars bridesmaid syndrome, having been nominated for an Academy Award now five times without a win over four consecutive decades. Nyad represents her first nomination since 2010 for The Kids Are All Right, though for my money, she was absolutely robbed for career-best work in Mike Mills’ 20th Century Women in 2016.
Diana Nyad is an interesting figure. She’s prickly and difficult and hard to love, and Bening makes the decision not to soften any of the edges, engaging directly with the kind of intensity and single-mindedness it would take to pull off the athletic feats she does. It’s actually an incredibly daring choice for the performer, which is not even to get into the physicality of the role. Of course, portraying a top-level athlete exacts an immense physical toll, and Bening went all the way there, as well.
Lily Gladstone in Killers of the Flower Moon
It’s telling that in a Martin Scoresese picture also starring Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert De Niro, Gladstone is the standout. Her Mollie Kyle is the heart of the story, and Gladstone is the heart of the film. She demonstrates a remarkable stillness and reserve that contrasts perfectly with the weasley operator played by DiCaprio. It’s a star-making part that should put Gladstone in a position to do whatever she wants with her career.
Throughout this season and throughout the promotion of the film, she has spoken eloquently about the history of indigenous portrayals in Hollywood, the treatment of native peoples by the government, and the need for greater representation in all media. It cannot be easy to be thrust into the position of speaking for an entire population, but Gladstone has handled the responsibility with dignity and grace. Here’s hoping this marks a real turning point for indigenous actors in the industry.
Sandra Hüller in Anatomy of a Fall
From my piece on the best performances of 2023, where I placed Hüller’s performance at the top of the list: “I have heard this character called cold. Some have suggested she is a sociopath. These are simplistic readings of a woman who will not be pinned down so easily. The script by [Justine] Triet and her partner, Arthur Harari, is of course superb, but it is Hüller who makes every moment sing. The tension derives from the disconnect between what we see in this character, what we know about her, and what we can never know, and few actors are as capable of living in that kind of tension the way Hüller does here. Love her, hate her, that’s not the point. Because of Hüller, we understand her, and that is so much more interesting.”
Carey Mulligan in Maestro
I can’t say with any certainty that Bening will ever win one of these things, despite being a wonderfully talented performer. However, I feel fairly certain Mulligan, who is on a similar trajectory, will eventually get over the hump. This is Mulligan’s third career nomination, all for Best Actress. Her previous nods came for An Education in 2009, when she was just 24, and for Promising Young Woman in 2020.
Across dark dramas and thrillers like Wildlife, Shame, and Drive, she has proven herself one of the most adept performers in film at digging into the psychology of a character and making that inner life manifest on screen. She is one of my favorite actresses working today. I would not call Maestro one of her best roles, though she does a wonderful job with the material she is given. It is a highly technical role, calling for an incredibly specific accent as well as all manner of tics and mannerisms. But, the character is rarely given the opportunity to shine apart from her effect on the protagonist of the film.
Emma Stone in Poor Things
From my piece on the best performances of 2023, where I placed Stone at No. 2: “There is nothing studied about Stone’s take on Bella Baxter, which is important since Bella begins as a character unstudied in just about everything. The beauty of the performance comes in the joy of discovery. Bella lives in the here and now because as far as she knows, she has no past and the future is boundless. Stone makes us believe she is learning everything in the moment it comes to her – the freedom of dance, the pleasures of the flesh, the sting of inequality. … With Poor Things, the 35-year-old performer has planted her flag on the mountaintop. No doubt, there will be future mountains to climb and flags to plant.”
This is Stone’s fourth acting nomination at the Oscars. She is also a nominated producer on Poor Things, making her just the second woman ever nominated for both awards for the same film. She joins Frances McDormand, who won Best Actress and Best Picture for Nomadland in 2020. Stone has one previous win for Best Actress for La La Land in 2016. Her other prior nominations came for Supporting Actress in Birdman and The Favourite.
The final analysis
This is the only major race with some manner of intrigue, and it will be difficult to know exactly who has the edge here right up until the envelope is opened tomorrow night. It’s a battle between Gladstone and Stone, though of course, to call it a battle adds a competitive element that is fun for us but does not exist between the two performers. As the awards season has gone on, they have been nothing but gracious in interviews and thrilled for each other when winning awards, which has happened a lot.
At the Golden Globes, Stone won for best actress in a comedy, while Gladstone took home the drama award. Gladstone delivered a tremendously powerful speech that in most years would have sealed the victory for her. Then, Stone won the Critics Choice Award and the BAFTA, while Gladstone was not even nominated by the BAFTAs. The momentum seemed to be swinging that direction, but then Gladstone triumphed at the Screen Actors Guild Awards, and that flipped things back toward her.
So, at this stage, I would call it neck and neck, with a slight edge to Gladstone after the SAG win. The SAG winners have matched the Oscar winners 4-for-4 in each of the past two years. Last year, Brendan Fraser’s SAG win was how we knew he had pulled away from Austin Butler in Best Actor, while Jamie Lee Curtis’ win was the way we learned she was inching ahead of Angela Bassett in Supporting Actress. So, I’m predicting Gladstone here for what will be a historic win. She would be the first indigenous winner of Best Actress in Academy history, and it would be well deserved.
Will win: Lily Gladstone in Killers of the Flower Moon
Should win: Sandra Hüller in Anatomy of a Fall
Should have been here: Julianne Moore in May December
A note about my favorite snub: Moore was actually campaigned in Supporting Actress for this performance, but I don’t have to play that game. May December has three leading performances, and Moore gets my nod just ahead of Natalie Portman, who is also tremendous in the film. Moore’s performance is just so psychologically complex and difficult to pin down. We can never be sure how much the character knows or understands about her situation, but we always have the feeling that Moore knows, which is all we need to stay anchored in this shifty story. Once again, Moore proves she’s one of the best in the game.
