Countdown to the Oscars: Best Picture

Welcome to this year’s edition of Last Cinema Standing’s Countdown to the Oscars, where we will break down each of the 23 categories, analyze the films, and make some guesses at their awards prospects.

Best Picture

The nominees are:

American Fiction

Anatomy of a Fall

Barbie

The Holdovers

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Past Lives

Poor Things

The Zone of Interest

For the second year in a row, the winner of the big prize feels like a foregone conclusion, and as I predicted last year, this time around, it doesn’t bother me so much. Because Oppenheimer is an excellent film and a worthy winner, even if it’s not the winner I’d pick necessarily, this whole process has mostly been a pleasant stroll through an excellent year at the movies.

This kind of Best Picture winner is becoming less and less common as the years go on: a big-budget historical epic from a marquee studio that prioritizes the theatrical experience and makes boatloads of money. The Academy Awards have been in indie-land for a while now, which has produced some excellent Best Picture winners but has perhaps diminished the award in the eyes of a public baffled by some of the more arty and outré choices. 

But, a movie like Oppenheimer is exactly the kind of movie the average moviegoer imagines when he thinks of a Best Picture winner. Over the years, people have complained a lot about the scourge of “Oscar bait,” but my impression is that most people don’t actually know what they mean when they say that. Sure, the occasional Judy will slip through the cracks, but by and large, the Academy Awards are far different today than they were even 20 years ago. 

While there is plenty of room for improvement, the stories and storytellers are more diverse, the styles of the nominated films are more daring, and the variety of films being rewarded is greater than ever. It’s a golden age for the gold standard of Hollywood filmmaking, and the industry is better off for it.

There is a pretty clear consensus on this year’s winner, but in an effort to give every nominee its moment in the sun, we will still rank them here from least likely to most likely to win:

Past Lives

This has become a more common occurrence since the Academy expanded its lineup to 10 nominees – the small, well written indie sliding into the Best Picture slate on the strength of members’ general love for the film. These films don’t usually show up in the crafts categories. Sometimes, they pick up an acting nomination or two. Sometimes, they don’t. Regardless of any of that, the filmmakers can always say they had a Best Picture nominee, and that’s not nothing.

American Fiction

If Cord Jefferson keeps making movies with this much wit and heart and intelligence, he’ll keep getting invited to the Oscars. American Fiction is exactly the kind of movie that benefits from this kind of awards attention. I know people who would never have sought it out but for hearing that it was in the mix for a couple Oscars. That’s the power of the Academy Awards. That’s also why it’s so important for the Academy to recognize different voices and amplify voices that otherwise would be drowned out by the din of a fast-moving industry. I look forward to whatever Jefferson makes next.

Maestro

It’s going to happen one of these days. Bradley Cooper is going to make his Oppenheimer, a film that is undeniable, that will finally carry him up onto the Oscars stage. He’ll probably win for directing, maybe even acting, too. That future is out there because Cooper is too talented and cares too much to stop making the art he loves. His movies really haven’t hit for me yet, but I’m never going to knock a filmmaker for following his passion.

Barbie

On paper, it’s pretty remarkable that Barbie made it to the dance at all. On paper, it’s a two-hour toy commercial produced by Mattel. On paper, it’s another chink in the armor that keeps art safe from the data-driven, finance-bro hell the rest of us find ourselves living in. But, that’s on paper. Greta Gerwig and Margot Robbie weren’t worried about how things might look on paper. They were concerned with bringing to life a smart, funny, insightful fantasy about how hard it is to be human, even if you’re a doll. It’s a beautiful statement and further proof that Gerwig is one of her generation’s finest filmmakers.

The Zone of Interest

There should be a place for something this experimental every year. Jonathan Glazer’s Holocaust drama looks different from any World War II movie you have ever seen. It sounds different. It feels different. Largely, that’s because Glazer just is a different kind of filmmaker, unafraid to take chances, to challenge the audience, and to reflect the worst of our shared history back at us. This is a monumental achievement that will be studied and discussed for years to come.

Anatomy of a Fall

From 1946-2010, just 10 films won the Palme d’Or at the Cannes Film Festival and got nominated for Best Picture. Of the past 12 Palme d’Or winners since 2011, it has happened five times. Anatomy of a Fall is the latest film to pull this impressive double act and further evidence of expanding tastes within the Academy and a willingness to look beyond American shores for great films. And, make no mistake: Justine Triet’s courtroom thriller is a great film. Simply put, it’s one of the best of the year.

Poor Things

Yorgos Lanthimos’ latest film might be one of the best examples of: Once you’re in the club, you’re in the club. How else to explain the love for a two-hour sci-fi fantasy about a woman’s sexual and spiritual awakening that features more explicit sex scenes than you can count on your two hands? The Academy embraced Lanthimos’ The Favourite back in 2018, itself more subversive than it might first appear, and now he’s in the club, which is great if it means he’s going to bring more weirdos like this along with him.

The Holdovers

This is the kind of quiet, generous movie that people can love easily, and it will appear near the top of a lot of ballots, if not right at the top. If Oppenheimer somehow doesn’t win a majority of votes from the first ballot, interesting possibilities open up, like everybody’s second-favorite film of the year possibly moving into pole position. I’m not saying that’s going to happen, but it’s far from the least likely scenario.

Killers of the Flower Moon

A favorite discussion type among film fans is: What director has the best four-film run? Or, what director started their career best? Or something similar. A rarely discussed topic is: What director ended his career on the best run? Unfortunately, even great directors have been known to toss out a few clunkers toward the ends of their careers. That’s why Quentin Tarantino has been adamant about retiring after 10 films. He wants to protect his legacy.

With that in mind, look at Scorsese’s four most recent films: Killers of the Flower Moon, The Irishman, Silence, and The Wolf of Wall Street. I want Scorsese to continue making movies forever, but if he announced his retirement tomorrow, there’s an argument to be made that this is the greatest closing chapter to a career ever. None of those movies will have won Best Picture, but Scorsese is beyond needing our validation. It’s his world. We’re just lucky to live in it.

Oppenheimer

Going back to 2018, Oppenheimer slots in quite nicely behind Parasite as the second-best winner of Best Picture in recent times. It’s a little tougher to challenge the winners from 2013-2017, when the Academy went on what I believe to be an all-timer run: 12 Years a Slave, Birdman, Spotlight, Moonlight, and The Shape of Water. Not a clunker among them and at least two among the greatest Best Picture winners of all time.

Anyway, it’s probably too early to start talking legacy. Let’s let Christopher Nolan and team celebrate their moment without viewing it through the lens of history. There will be plenty of time to talk about that later. For now, we can simply marvel at a movie that so captured the imagination of the public that for about a month there, we were all talking about J. Robert Oppenheimer (and Barbie, too). That’s what great movies do. They capture the imagination. And, that’s what great Best Picture winners do, too. Oppenheimer will be a great Best Picture winner.

Will win: Oppenheimer

Should win: Killers of the Flower Moon

Should have been here: All of Us Strangers

A note about my favorite snub: I named Andrew Haigh’s All of Us Strangers the best film of the year, so yes, I think it should be in the Best Picture lineup. Even when there was buzz around the actors and the screenplay, a nomination in the top category was always a long shot. That’s okay. Not every great film makes it to the big show. I hope more people check out this gem of a film anyway. It’s a life-changer.

Countdown to the Oscars: It’s Winning Time

The weather is warming up here in Los Angeles. Baseball is back, with a full slate of spring training games underway today, which means the long march to the Braves breaking my heart again can begin. The Warriors are playing well. And, we’re two weeks away from the Academy Awards. All in all, I am in my element.

So, why can’t I shake the nagging feeling that I’m kind of bored? Mostly, I would say it’s because this Oscars “race” has felt over for months. Oppenheimer debuted in July to critical raves and an adoring public. The film is a behemoth, the kind of towering, historical epic so often lauded by the Academy in the past, but it also has a new-school approach and aesthetic spearheaded by director Christopher Nolan. 

It is a perfect blend of the past, present, and future of filmmaking, exactly the kind of movie that will hold up over the years and decades to come as a great Best Picture winner. But, it’s still not that much fun to watch a single film run roughshod over the competition all season. With the exception of Best Actress – which, itself, is starting to feel a tad preordained – all the top categories feel well and truly decided. There’s no intrigue.

Anyone waiting for a Moonlight- or Parasite-style shocker on March 10, I fear, is going to be sorely disappointed. Those were great, David vs. Goliath stories about the Little Movie That Could sneaking in at the last moment and taking down the giant. Could Oppenheimer be on a La La Land trajectory, winning everything all the way to the big show, then winning virtually every award on the night, only to fall short at the finish line? Sure. But, where’s the David that’s going to fire the rock?

With a few notable exceptions, it is basically impossible to win Best Picture without at least a Director nomination, so let’s confine our analysis to that group. The movies with a shot to win are: Oppenheimer, Killers of the Flower Moon, Anatomy of a Fall, The Zone of Interest, and Poor Things. The most intriguing of these is Lanthimos’ Poor Things, so let’s save that for last.

Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest are the non-English language nominees this year, and both are spectacular. But, if Anatomy of a Fall were going to win, there would be more heat behind star Sandra Hüller for Best Actress. Instead, she’s probably running a distant third in that category. The film will challenge for Original Screenplay, but that won’t be enough to carry it. The Zone of Interest, frankly, is just too darn arty. Some of the more old-school members of the Academy are likely to be turned off by the cold remove of director Jonathan Glazer’s approach. It’s a hard film to love, and you need love to win.

Then, there’s Killers of the Flower Moon. Poor, Marty. Martin Scorsese is carving himself a very interesting niche in Academy history. Only six movies ever have received 10-plus nominations without winning a single award. Two of those were directed by Scorsese: Gangs of New York and The Irishman. The way this season is going, Killers of the Flower Moon is looking down the barrel of becoming the seventh member of that club. Oh, well. It’s no less a masterpiece.

Finally, we have Poor Things, a big, bold comic sci-fi fantasy that is almost certain to pick up a number of below-the-line awards, as well as Best Actress for Emma Stone. One could imagine a scenario in which the combined support of the actors and craftspeople pushes this film near the top of a lot of ballots. But, that’s exactly the same support in the corner of Oppenheimer, which will win many crafts awards and more than likely two acting Oscars. I just don’t see an open lane for anything else to slide into.

Nolan’s epic will almost certainly march to the stage triumphantly and with little resistance. At least it’s a great movie, and though Nolan has never been to my taste, Oppenheimer is an undeniable achievement (give or take a drunken wife character with nothing to do). I can rest easy knowing the future holds a Best Picture win for Oppenheimer, but knowing the future sure isn’t much fun.

So, we’ll spend the next two weeks looking for fun in the other categories. It’s definitely there to be had. Keep checking this space each day for thoughts, analysis, and predictions leading up to the 96th Academy Awards.

Countdown to the Oscars: Best Picture

We’re counting down the days until the Academy Awards! We’ll be here, breaking down each of the 23 categories, talking a bit of history, and trying to figure out who is going to win all those gold statues. So check back throughout the next three weeks for Last Cinema Standing’s Countdown to the Oscars.

Best Picture

The nominees are:

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Banshees of Inisherin

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

TÁR

Top Gun: Maverick

Triangle of Sadness

Women Talking

It has been a while since a single movie so bulldozed the competition all season as to take all the guesswork out of Best Picture. So long, in fact, that I have never covered a season like this in such depth. Honestly, it’s been kind of lame and exhausting. Now, I am aware enough of myself to recognize that if it were a film I loved running away with the top prize, I would probably enjoy it quite a bit more. I’m sure I could wax poetic all day every day about Women Talking or The Banshees of Inisherin or TÁR. The truth is I ran out of things to say about Everything Everywhere All at Once on Day 2.

I will refrain from writing a eulogy on the year in film that was 2022 until after the Academy Awards are over on Sunday, but I can’t help but feel a little sorry that a year that was so excellent – both overall and at the Oscars – will end up mostly defined by a film I found so dreadful. But, as I’ve said a number of times before, they don’t erase all the other movies on Monday. The great ones will still be around to be watched and shared and admired, no matter what wins Best Picture.

In order of least likely to most likely winner:

Avatar: The Way of Water – Kudos to James Cameron on continuing one of the most remarkable runs in film history. He made the highest grossing film of all time. Then, he did it again. Then, he took 13 years to make a sequel, delivering it into a film universe that had changed immensely since the last time he conquered the box office. Virtually no one thought this was a good idea or likely to work. How to follow up the biggest movie in the history of movies? Well, we doubt Cameron at our peril. Avatar: The Way of Water isn’t entirely successful, but it’s successful enough, and even that is a miracle.

Women Talking – This is the best film of 2022. As the years go on, more people will catch up to that realization. They will get a look at the artistry of the filmmaking, the poignancy of the writing, and the brilliance of the acting, and they will wonder how this got so overlooked by the Academy. The silver lining is that great films don’t go away. They are continuously discovered, passed along by film fans to other fans until they take their rightful place in the canon.

Triangle of Sadness – If Ruben Östlund’s superb satire were going to challenge for Best Picture, Dolly de Leon would have snuck into the lineup for Best Supporting Actress. It’s a shame. The success of the film hinges on her turn in the third act, and she carries that weight in a way few other actresses could. There is irony in the Academy nominating for Best Picture a film specifically meant to skewer the most visible of the membership, but they might have missed that. It’s okay. I’m sure Östlund is chuckling to himself.

Top Gun: Maverick – The movie that saved movies, of course it had to be nominated for Best Picture. But, something feels a little off about the nomination, doesn’t it? Why does the movie succeed? There are probably two big things: the stunningly choreographed action sequences and the star power of Tom Cruise. So, why were neither director Joseph Kosinski nor Cruise nominated for their work? If you think the movie is successful, those are the two people most responsible for its success. (Note: Cruise is nominated as a producer, but we’re talking about star power as the lead of the film.)

The Fabelmans – Steven Spielberg feels a little like Thanos at this point: He is inevitable. He has made nine films since 2011, and six of them have been nominated for Best Picture. No other modern filmmaker can boast a resumé like that. A couple of the nods have felt like obligations on the Academy’s part, like The Post or Bridge of Spies, two movies I like. Lincoln, on the other hand, was a major player in 2012. The Fabelmans feels somewhere in between those two spaces. It picked up a number of major nominations and it has admirers within the Academy, but it’s not threatening to win the big prize.

All Quiet on the Western Front – This is the dividing line. The five movies above are the also-rans, the “just happy to be here group.” The next five are the ones that would be battling it out for the win if it weren’t for the fact that the top film on the list is utterly dominant. Edward Berger’s film is a grand accomplishment and should instantly vault into the discussion of greatest war films of all time. It builds on the modern classics that came before it such as Saving Private Ryan and Letters from Iwo Jima to deliver a totally immersive experience. To paraphrase another filmmaker talking about his own war picture, this movie is not about war; it is war.

TÁR – In the Best Picture lineup this year, there are multiple war movies, a big-budget action-adventure flick, a multiverse spanning sci-fi mashup, and a biopic of one of the most famous figures of the 20th century. Despite that, Todd Field’s TÁR is the one that feels the most like a grand, epic achievement. It’s There Will Be Blood in an orchestra pit. It’s Barry Lyndon goes to the symphony. It has all the hallmarks of a movie that will be discussed and debated for the next 50 years. It doesn’t need to win Best Picture to leave a mark on cinema history. The mark has been made.

Elvis – I feel odd putting Elvis this high in the rankings when Baz Luhrmann failed to garner a Best Director nomination, but it’s been a weird season. As it stands, I expect Elvis to be the next big winner after Everything Everywhere All at Once, taking home anywhere from three to five statues. It would hardly be the first time a big, flashy movie with a showy lead performance wowed voters into showering it with awards. It’s just that in a year with this many tremendous films, it’s unfortunate to see the Academy falling in love with “most” over “best.”

The Banshees of Inisherin – In 2017, it felt like Martin McDonagh got really close to winning it all with Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri. This year, it feels like he got even closer with The Banshees of Inisherin. As mentioned before in this series, McDonagh has said he wants to focus on moviemaking as he moves forward in his career. More than likely, that means he will be back in this race again, and he will probably get that Best Picture statue someday. One hopes it is for work as formidable as this. Knowing McDonagh, I have no doubt.

Everything Everywhere All at Once – What more is there to say? This film premiered at SXSW on March 11, 2022. The world fell in love with it. One year and one day later, it will be crowned Best Picture of the year at the Academy Awards. Some started predicting it for the big prize at that premiere. Kudos to them. I thought it was wishful thinking, forecasting with the heart, not the head. But, damned if the whole film industry didn’t just embrace this thing with open arms in ways I have found truly shocking. I don’t get it. I probably won’t ever get it. But, I don’t need to get it. It’s happening.

The final analysis

Sometimes, weird things come to pass. When Crash won in 2005, it basically proved that we can never be 100 percent sure of anything. But, even Crash had some bit of precedent, if only in hindsight, in winning the SAG ensemble award. If we’re being honest, it also had a sizable voting bloc of homophobic, anti-Brokeback Mountain folks.

There is no precedent for anything other than Everything Everywhere All at Once winning Best Picture. It has won every important guild award – PGA, DGA, SAG, and the WGA. It has won virtually all of the below-the-line guild awards, too. It has all the important Oscar nominations – Director, multiple acting nominations, Screenplay, Editing, along with a few others just for show. The industry has fallen absolutely head over heels in love with this movie.

There is no conflict here. There’s no scrappy underdog like CODA or Parasite. There’s no one campaigning hard against it for political reasons, like the year the anti-Netflix crowd tanked Roma in favor of Green Book. There’s not even an interesting two-horse race like Birdman vs. Boyhood or Moonlight vs. La La Land. It’s just pure sweep all the way down the line.

This is like that run from 2010-2012 when The King’s Speech, The Artist, and Argo all just dominated from start to finish. Those were all years when the movie of the moment triumphed over the movie that would prove to have staying power. Proof, perhaps, that the Oscars are a snapshot of what the movie industry is feeling at any given time. Academy members aren’t voting based on how history will remember their choices. They’re voting for what feels good right now. Making history is incidental.

It really doesn’t matter if Everything Everywhere All at Once holds up the way Women Talking will or TÁR will. That’s not the point. The point is that for one week of voting in March 2023, a lot of people just really had a good time with this strange little confection. Like cheap champagne, it feels great while you’re drinking it. Worry about the hangover tomorrow.

Will win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Should win: Women Talking

Should have been here: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

A note about my favorite snub: No documentary has ever been nominated for Best Picture. I’m not even sure what the Academy rules are anymore on films competing for both Best Documentary Feature and Best Picture. Doesn’t matter. I don’t feel any need to be beholden to their rules in dream casting my ballot. Laura Poitras’ All the Beauty and the Bloodshed is poignantly felt, deftly executed, and stirringly resonant. It is without question one of the 10 best films of the year and would absolutely be on my list of Best Picture nominees.

Next time: We’re going to rank all the nominated movies! That should be fun.

Countdown to the Oscars: The marathon becomes a sprint

Alright, here we go. We’ve got 25 days until the Academy Awards and 23 categories to cover. Many races are blissfully open right now, but there are plenty of precursors in the next few weeks waiting to tell us which way the wind is blowing. I have my hunches, but that is all they are for the moment. The Directors Guild will announce its winners Saturday. The BAFTAs take place Sunday. The PGA Awards are Feb. 25, and the SAG Awards roll around Feb 26. That’s a lot of info about to come our way, but let’s take stock of where we think we stand.

As the nominations leader and the most critically acclaimed film of the year, Everything Everywhere All at Once is your de facto frontrunner. People love this movie, and love matters when it comes to voting for Best Picture. On my scorecard, for the time being, I have the film converting five of its 11 nominations into statues, taking home Picture, Director and Original Screenplay for the Daniels, Supporting Actor for Ke Huy Quan, and Editing. 

The film is also probably running around second or third place in most of its other categories. In particular, there is heat on Michelle Yeoh to catch up and take Best Actress from presumed favorite Cate Blanchett. Five wins would already be the most for a Best Picture winner since The Artist in 2011. Six or more and we’re getting into Slumdog Millionaire sweep territory, which has only happened a couple times this century. But if people truly love this film as much as it seems, there is every possibility they will just mark the box next to it all the way down the ballot.

All that said, the leader at this point in the race doesn’t always hold to win. If we called the race at this point, your past winners would include The Power of the Dog, 1917, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri, and La La Land, and those are just examples from the past six years. So, it’s worth it to wonder what may be lurking with a shot.

The Banshees of Inisherin is second in nominations, tied with All Quiet on the Western Front. It has support from the actors branch, the largest branch of voters, though it should be noted both this and Everything Everywhere have four acting nods. Writer-director Martin McDonagh is well liked by the Academy, and it is hard to find anyone with anything truly negative to say about the film.

For my two cents, Todd Field’s TÁR is probably sitting in third place by virtue of the fact that it has nominations in all of the most important categories (Picture, Director, Actress, Original Screenplay, Editing, and Cinematography) and it has the patina of a true masterpiece. It has the feel of a Roma or There Will Be Blood, historic feats of filmmaking that will be remembered long after the Oscars race has run its course. They are movies that critics of the Academy Awards would call “too good to win Best Picture,” a suggestion that the Academy is too middlebrow to reward something so artful and majestic.

Neither film has the “love” factor to it, though. Banshees is well liked and TÁR is admired, but Everything Everywhere is beloved. If we are going by that metric, Elvis and Top Gun: Maverick are probably the next two after the frontrunner. 

If Top Gun: Maverick were going to win, it would probably have a Best Director nomination. CODA won without one last year, but that was a movie admired for its acting and writing. Top Gun is absolutely a director’s picture, which makes its lack of a nomination there suspicious from a Best Picture potential standpoint.

Elvis, on the other hand, is an interesting case. It is very divisive. People either love it or they hate it, which is usually not the kind of film that wins the top prize, unless there are enough people who love it. However, none of that divisiveness precludes it from being a big winner on the night, and as it stands, I have it predicted in four of the eight categories for which it is nominated.

I am betting on Austin Butler to triumph in a truly competitive Best Actor race. I am going out on a limb to predict the four big action movies nominated for Sound split the vote and the award falls to the musical. Meanwhile, the flashiness of the Production Design and Cinematography could easily win voters over. Honestly, Costume Design and Makeup and Hairstyling are not out of the question either. 

Could Elvis be this year’s Mad Max: Fury Road or La La Land, scooping up all the crafts awards while another movie holds sway at the top of the ballot? It is at least first or second in five of the six categories I just named, with Sound the exception where I am currently projecting something a little wonky – which I reserve the right to change when we get there.

In the acting races, Quan is running away with Supporting Actor and no one has yet stepped up to challenge Angela Bassett for Supporting Actress. Blanchett had a big lead in Actress at the beginning of the season, but all the support for Everything Everywhere has people switching their bets to Yeoh. I am not ready to go that far, but we’ll see what BAFTA and SAG have to say. 

And, that just leaves Best Actor, a three-way race with no clear favorite as of this date. Again, BAFTA and SAG will change that, unless they split, which is entirely possible. Maybe Butler wins both and the race is over. Maybe the Brits go for Colin Farrell and SAG goes with Brendan Fraser, which would leave all options on the table. If asked to rank them, currently, I would have Butler, then Farrell, then Fraser, but I don’t think there is a lot separating them.

We’ll save most of the below-the-line analysis for the rest of this series, as well as the shorts, the docs, and the animated and international features. I am excited for the race ahead. There are a lot of great artists nominated for tremendous work, and many of them are within striking distance of a win. It’s all possible right now, which makes this the best time of the season. As the possibilities come off the table and certain wins become inevitable, it gets less and less fun. So for now, let’s enjoy the mystery.