This is the big one, the reason we are all here. This is
Best Picture at the Academy Awards. There was much furor over the perfectly
fine if bland choice of Green Book last year over Alfonso Cuaron’s
masterwork, Roma. Keep in mind, however, there is that kind of upset
every year. Every film nominated for Best Picture has passionate supporters –
that is how you end up with a Best Picture nomination in the first place – and no
matter what wins, someone is upset. You have to go back to 2007 and No Country
for Old Men to find a winner that was nearly universally agreed upon, and
even then, There Will Be Blood fans wondered where the Paul Thomas Anderson
love was.
Some great films are nominated in the Academy’s top category
this year. One of them will win Best Picture. Eight others will not. The
announcement of a winner does not magically erase the others from existence. All
of this is to say: Try not to get too worked up about it. I love this stuff. I
genuinely jump for joy win films and people I respect win Academy Awards. When
they do not win, it is upsetting, but then I go back and watch films I love and
remember why I love them in the first place. It is not because they may win Oscars
but because they are great works of art.
These are the nine films nominated for Best Picture of 2019
at the Academy Awards this year, in order of likelihood to win (from least
likely to most):
Ford V. Ferrari, directed by James Mangold
I hate using the term “muscular” because it has become so
gendered when talking about filmmaking. But we are talking about big, beefy
engines, fast cars, and loud noises. I don’t care what gender you are. This is
muscular filmmaking. Ford V. Ferrari is the kind of movie the Academy
usually eats up. It is a classic tale of American exceptionalism that finds
within that structure a critique of the capitalist system. It is about a couple
Davids working for Goliath, trying to take down another Goliath. In the end,
only the Goliaths win.
Mangold’s direction is tight, precise, and propulsive,
Christian Bale and Matt Damon are excellent in the leading roles, and the film
is a visual splendor. That said, with no directing nomination, no acting nominations,
and no writing nomination, the love for this film appears to stop at its
considerable crafts. It will not get many No. 1 votes among these nominees, and
the prize will have to be the nomination.
Marriage Story, directed by Noah Baumbach
Despite what you may have heard, Marriage Story is
much more than Kramer vs. Kramer 2.0. Baumbach’s film a fairer, more
considered work than that earlier film to which it is so often compared. For
those who cannot see both sides of this story, it says more about them than it
does the film. Baumbach balances his audience’s loyalties and sympathies in a
way you rarely see on screen. Marriage Story is evidence of a filmmaker
working at the height of his considerable powers as both a writer and director.
It helps that at the center of film are two remarkable
leading performances. Scarlett Johansson and Adam Driver. They battle and rage
and scratch and claw and never given an inch, either as performers or characters.
The beauty of the film lies in the way both characters come to realize they
have entered a war that cannot be won. It may ultimately be too raw and too
close to the bone for voters. It is a hard film to love, but it is worth the
effort if you have the patience to meet the film on its level.
The Irishman, directed by Martin Scorsese
It feels impossible that Scorsese could return with another
masterpiece and the world could simply shrug at it. As of now, I am predicting The
Irishman to win precisely zero of its 10 nominations. That is a feat
matched or exceeded by only five other films in history, including Scorsese’s
own Gangs of New York in 2002, which similarly went 0-for-10. The list also
features American Hustle (10), True Grit (10), The Turning
Point (11), and The Color Purple (11). I do not think it is
controversial to suggest The Irishman is the blue ribbon of that group.
I wonder how much of this is the Netflix effect. Not simply
the Academy’s and the industry’s at large aversion to the growing power of the
streaming platform. If anybody could move voters beyond that prejudice, surely
Scorsese could. Rather, Netflix’s model, for both its film and television
originals, seems to be a major release with much press and hullabaloo. The new
piece, say The Irishman or Marriage Story, dominates the cultural
conversation for a week or two, then disappears, lost in the sea of content. I
cannot imagine a world in which a master director releases a perfect film and
it simply disappears into the ether, but here we stand.
Little Women, directed by Greta Gerwig
There is little that irk me more than sight-unseen prejudice.
The conversation around the release of Little Women was that men would
not see it, that men, in fact, were refusing to see it based on some misguided
and phony masculine code. Yet, it is here. It is among the nominees for Best
Picture in a male dominated Academy. So, clearly, some men crossed the picket
line and saw it. For doing so, they were rewarded with a masterful piece of
storytelling in which everything old is new again. Little Women is a
rebuke to the very men who would refuse to see it.
Little Women is also a major work from one of the
best new directors on the scene. With Lady Bird and now this, Gerwig has
proven that she is in this game to play, and not only is she playing – she is
winning. Her post-modern take on the March girls saga is the perfect movie of
the moment, striking at the very core of what drives conversations around art
and the artist. It is a film in conversation with itself and the world at
large, daring viewers to judge it, to misinterpret it, and to miss the point.
It is challenging, daring, and brilliant, so of course, it will not win. But
just wait until Gerwig gets back here again.
Joker, directed by Todd Phillips
The preferential ballot used to determine Best Picture
rewards consensus. A controversial, love-it-or-hate-it work is unlikely to win under
this kind of system. It does not come much more controversial than Joker
when it comes to the Academy’s top award. Many voters will put it down as the
No. 1 film of the year. Many others will place it last on their ballots or
leave it off entirely. This is not a film that can build consensus, yet its
ceremony-high 11 nominations suggest it has strong support across the board.
The critical and industry divide on Joker has been
fascinating to watch ever since it won the Golden Lion at the Venice Film
Festival. Somehow, winning a major award put a target on Joker’s back.
Its worst sin is that it is derivative of early Martin Scorsese, though the
homage fits the tone of the piece. From what I can tell, people want to find
nothing in the film. People who want to hate will find it empty, though admittedly,
some who love are seeing too much. The truth is the film’s existence is
something of a miracle, a billion-dollar-grossing comic book film that takes an
infamous character and puts a new spin on it. Kudos to Phillips for trying
something and succeeding.
Jojo Rabbit, directed by Taika Waititi
This is my least favorite among the nominees. I just want to
be upfront about that before I discuss the film’s chances to win Best Picture. Part
of me wonders if Waititi just is not my bag. Though I loved Hunt for the
Wilderpeople, I could not get on board for any of What We Do in The
Shadows, Thor: Ragnarok, Flight of the Conchords, or Jojo
Rabbit. While some of the humor works for me, what I found most distressing
about Jojo Rabbit were its attempts at sincerity.
Jojo Rabbit wants to be about something important –
it is even billed as an “Anit-Hate Satire,” just in case you didn’t get the
joke – but it also wants to make you laugh at the antics of an imaginary
Hitler. The tonal shifts do not work. The film works for others, and I am happy
for them. I will not be happy if this film wins Best Picture, which is a viable
outcome for a middlebrow crowd-pleaser that has Life Is Beautiful DNA. Few
would call it their favorite film, but few will say they outright dislike,
which could be important on a preferential ballot.
Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood, directed by Quentin Tarantino
Tarantino shot his shot with this film. I think it is his
second-best work after Inglourious Basterds. He says he will retire
after his 10th film – this is No. 9 – and it is hard to imagine him producing another
work of such profound beauty and introspection. As ever, this Tarantino movie
loves movies, and it loves people who make movies, which would be Academy members.
If there were ever going to be a fastball down the middle of the plate for
Oscar voters, this would be it. And yet, it has gained little traction.
Brad Pitt will win Supporting Actor, Tarantino could win his
third Original Screenplay award, and the film is in the mix in a couple
below-the-line categories, but the momentum does not seem to exist for the top
prize. Like Inglourious Basterds, which came in the year of Avatar
vs. The Hurt Locker, Once Upon a Time seems to be running third
behind the two Best Picture favorites. Maybe it ends up second on enough
ballots and surprises everyone, but it does not seem to be in the cards. Maybe
Tarantino will never get there. Hitchcock never did. Nor did Kubrick. Welles
couldn’t even get back to the show. If Tarantino does retire and join this
group, hey, there is worse company in which to find yourself.
Parasite, directed by Bong Joon-ho
The best film of the year does not always get this close to
the top prize. In the 16 or 17 years I have been following the Oscars closely,
my favorite film of the year has won the top award three times, and I freely
admit that many people disagree with me about those selections. There is not much
disagreement that Parasite is the best film of the year. It won the
Palme d’Or at Cannes, becoming the first Korean film to do so. It won numerous
critical accolades and has broken down barriers across the board for Korean
films specifically and foreign language films in general.
There is no one in the industry who does not like this
director, this cast, or this film. At industry function after industry
function, the enthusiasm and applause for this film and these filmmakers has
been off the charts. Bong has been one of the most popular individuals in the room
at every party he attends. Parasite is universal. The love is out there.
The question is: Will that love translate into votes? The short answer is yes,
but will there be enough? We will find out.
1917, directed by Sam Mendes
It is no longer cool to admit you still like American
Beauty. There is the Kevin Spacey aspect, the general whiteness of the
film, its handling of gay characters, and its generally icky plot about a
middle-aged man lusting after a teenage girl. The film has not changed. The
culture has. In many ways, I understand. But the fractured take on suburban
malaise had not become a cliché at this point. American Beauty is
primarily responsible for the wave of imitators that followed. That was 20
years ago when Mendes’ first feature film won Best Picture. Now, he is on the verge
of another triumph.
1917 has won all the right awards that would suggest
a Best Picture win. It won the Golden Globes, it won the Producers Guild, it
won the Directors Guild, and it won all those BAFTAs. There is only one empty
spot in the trophy case. 1917 is a strange goliath because it is such a
well-made film. It truly is an impressive piece of filmmaking and storytelling.
I do not want to root against this film. I really enjoyed it. The crafts are
impeccable, the performances are lovely, and the climax is among the most
stirring I have seen in a cinema in recent years.
The problem is that Parasite is an unimpeachable
masterwork. Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood is stunning. Little Women
and The Irishman are brilliant. You want something transcendent to
beat that group. 1917 is tremendous, but transcendence is elusive. All
signs point to 1917, but it is hard to be excited about that outcome. Of
course, the last time I felt this certain about a Best Picture winner was La
La Land. Then, Moonlight happened. So, you never know.
Will win: 1917
Should win: Parasite
Should have been here: Midsommar
