Welcome to the Last Cinema Standing
Countdown to the Oscars for the 2019 movie season! Throughout this series, we
will break down all 24 categories with predictions and hopes for the big night.
We start with the crafts you can see on screen.
Best Cinematography
Nominees
The Irishman, Rodrigo Prieto
Joker, Lawrence Sher
The Lighthouse, Jaren Blaschke
1917, Roger Deakins
Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood, Robert Richardson
This is the Deakins show once again. Deakins famously was
nominated 13 times without winning before winning on his 14th nomination
for Blade Runner 2049 in 2017. He will not have to wait long
to repeat the feat. Much has been made of the single-take format of 1917,
and debate rages over whether it is a gimmick or a useful storytelling tool. I
lean more toward the latter, but either way, Deakins’ technical achievement is
unmatched among the nominees in the category this year. The framing, the
constant motion, the day-for-night shooting, Deakins makes you question how he
accomplished all of this but never takes you out of the story.
Among those nominees, Prieto’s tender work in The
Irishman stands out, as does frequent Quentin Tarantino collaborator
Richardson’s sun-dappled photography for Once Upon a Time … in
Hollywood, a film that is in tone and execution a single long sunset.
Sher’s grimy take on the world of Joker is suitable but
familiar. I was not among those who fell so hard for Blaschke’s squared-off,
high-contrast cinematography for The Lighthouse, but black and
white has a way of forcing itself into the conversation. All of it is running
second to Deakins, who will quickly go from long overdue for an Oscar to a
two-time winner.
Will win: 1917
Should win: 1917
Should have been here: Midsommar
Best Editing
Nominees
Ford V. Ferrari, Michael McCusker and Andrew Buckland
The Irishman, Thelma Schoonmaker
Jojo Rabbit, Tom Eagles
Joker, Jeff Groth
Parasite, Yang Jinmo
This is an intriguing category this year since the presumptive
Best Picture frontrunner is nowhere to be found. Of course, the aforementioned
single-take magic of 1917 means the editing is well hidden and
of the sort likely to be overlooked here anyway (remember Birdman faced
the same challenge and won Best Picture anyway).
The outlier here is Ford V. Ferrari, which
though a Best Picture nominee has no momentum for the top prize. Any other film
winning here would be a major show of strength, particularly Jojo Rabbit or
Parasite. That being said, Ford V. Ferrari could
take it solely on the flashiness of McCusker’s and Buckland’s work. They
certainly would be deserving winners for wrangling together all of the car
racing footage in a way that ensures the viewer is never lost amid all the
action.
Schoonmaker is a legend and can never be counted out for an
award, and if the Academy wants to reward The Irishman this is
the most likely place to do it (or possibly Visual Effects, but we will get to
that below). The nearly four-hour runtime of The Irishman flies
by, and that is a credit to Scorsese’s longtime collaborator.
Yang’s piecing together of Bong Joon-ho’s puzzle box
thriller would be deserving, and a win here for Parasite would
be a huge boost to its chances for potentially taking the top prize. Ditto Eagles’
work on Jojo Rabbit, which won the ACE award for comedy editing and
is to be respected in this category. Then you have Joker, for which
Groth did away with all of the traditional superhero movie tropes in favor of a
more patient subdued style that goes a long way toward making the film
work.
Any of these has a strong case to win, but I see a year like
2011 here, when The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo won the award
without even being nominated for Best Picture. It was a feat of editing that
simply could not be denied. That is Ford V. Ferrari, which will not
win Best Picture but is unquestionably well edited. Keep in mind, as a Best
Picture nominee, James Mangold’s film is one the Academy clearly likes and will
want to recognize.
Will win: Ford V. Ferrari
Should win: Parasite
Should have been here: Little Women
Best Production Design
Nominees
The Irishman, Bob Shaw (production design) and Regina
Graves (set decoration)
Jojo Rabbit, Ra Vincent (production design) and Nora
Sopková
(set decoration)
1917, Dennis Gassner (production design) and Lee
Sandales (set decoration)
Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood, Barbara Ling
(production design) and Nancy Haigh (set decoration)
Parasite, Lee Ha Jun (production design) and Cho Won
Woo (set decoration)
The most surprising and delightful nominee in this group
is Parasite, and the Neon team did a good job getting the word out
that the film’s two main settings were entirely constructed environments. Lee’s
work as a production designer is front and center, but the set decoration
spearheaded by Cho is a marvel, as well, particularly in scenes set in the
lower-class family’s household, which is all meaningful clutter. Not an inch of
the set is wasted space, so good on the Academy’s production designers and set
dressers for recognizing that. There is much good will for the film, and the
biggest hurdle to a win probably was the nomination itself, so do not be
surprised to hear this one called out here.
The stiffest competition comes most likely from two vastly
different period films - The Irishman and Once Upon a
Time … in Hollywood. Shaw’s and Graves’ work on the sprawling Irishman is
marvelous, covering nearly 40 years of American history and style with a
lived-in effortlessness. Once Upon a Time is closer to Parasite,
in as much as it is a set-piece film, taking place primarily at Rick Dalton’s
house, Spahn Ranch, or the Lancer set. Haigh and Ling make
each space unique and visceral in ways without which the movie could not
succeed. Jojo Rabbit recreates a bombed-out World War II
Germany, while 1917 recreates a bombed out World War I
countryside. Unless we are in for a 1917 sweep, I am guessing
they cancel each other out, however admirable their recreations are.
There are a couple of ways to think about the win
here. Parasite could take it if they really love the movie,
but history is not on its side. The last contemporary, non-fantasy film to win
this award was All the President’s Men in 1976 (depending on
how you categorize La La Land and All That Jazz,
but both of those films rely heavily on fantastical musical sequences, so they
do not truly fit the mold of a traditional contemporary piece). In recent
years, the Academy has tended to pick one film as its crafts juggernaut -
think Mad Max: Fury Road, La La Land, and Gravity -
and if that is the case again this year, then 1917 is the most
likely beneficiary.
Will win: 1917
Should win: Parasite
Should have been here: Little Women
Best Costume Design
Nominees
The Irishman, Sandy Powell and Christopher Peterson
Jojo Rabbit, Mayes C. Rubeo
Joker, Mark Bridges
Little Women, Jacqueline Durran
Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood, Arianne Phillips
Every crafts branch has its favorite people (see again
15-time cinematography nominee Roger Deakins), and the costume designers more
than most like to nominate designers they love. Case in point, this is
three-time winner Powell’s 15th nomination after she was a double nominee last
year for The Favourite and Mary Poppins Returns. She shares this
nomination with Peterson, and their work on The Irishman is most
impressive for its ability to subtly evoke the many different eras on display
in the epic crime drama. It is undoubtedly a “men in suits” movie, but the many
style shifts and the love for Powell are enough to make The Irishman a
formidable contender.
As with production design, this branch loves period work. In
fact, the last non-period, non-fantasy film nominated in this category was I
Am Love in 2010, and even that film was set 10 years prior to its release.
Before that, you have to go back to 102 Dalmatians in 2000 to find a
film set in the year it was released. Anyway, of course, all of these are
period films, though four are set from the 1940s onward. Little Women
represents the only traditional costume drama in the group, which could work in
its favor. Durran is a six-time nominee and previously won this award for Anna
Karenina in 2012.
Jojo Rabbit is perhaps the outlier of this group, and
war films do not traditionally do well here, but Rubeo’s many looks for
Scarlett Johansson’s character in the film certainly stick in the mind.
Bridge’s specific take on The Joker’s costume has become an instant classic,
while the rest of Joker is filled with grimy, era-appropriate looks. My
favorite among the nominees is Phillips, who evokes a breezy, ‘70s style that
is specific to the Hollywood scene, but even more so specific to the characters
at the story’s core.
This is the first time in Oscars history that all five
nominees have also been Best Picture nominees, which makes predicting this
category that much more difficult. The Academy loves a good costume drama, and
the desire to reward Little Women will be strong. Strong support for
either Joker or Once Upon a Time could pay off here in a win, and
while Powell is a star, The Irishman could be too subdued for the
Academy’s tastes. Jojo Rabbit would be the surprise winner. When all
else fails, go with the most costumes, which means Little Women.
Will win: Little Women
Should win: Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood
Should have been here: Dolemite Is My Name
Best Visual Effects
Nominees
Avengers: Endgame, Dan DeLeeuw, Russell Earl, Matt
Aiken, and Dan Sudick
The Irishman, Pablo Helman, Leandro Estebecorena,
Nelson Sepulveda-Fauser, and Stephane Grabali
The Lion King, Robert Legato, Adam Valdez, Andrew R.
Jones, and Elliot Newman
1917, Guillaume Rocheron, Greg Butler, and Dominic
Tuohy
Star Wars: Episode IX - The Rise of Skywalker, Roger
Guyett, Neal Scanlan, Patrick Tubach, and Dominic Tuohy
When it comes to predicting Best Visual Effects, recent
history teaches us two things: 1) if there is a single Best Picture nominee in
the group, that is probably your winner; 2) if there are multiple Best Picture
nominees, look elsewhere. However, the modern Visual Effects award has been
around since just 1963, and there have only been five nominees in the category
since 2010 (yes, right around the time the industry model became almost
singularly focused on effects-driven films).
The last time multiple Best Picture nominees competed here
was 2015, when Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, and The
Revenant all presumably split the vote and we got that shocking (wholly
deserved) Ex Machina win. There is no Ex Machina equivalent in
this group, which consists entirely of massive undertakings, mostly from Disney
films. The effects of The Irishman have been talked about since the film
was announced, but they are controversial and divisive, which will hurt its
chances. 1917 will depend on how much voters want to attribute its
single-take wizardry solely to the photography. For both, there is the Best
Picture split vote possibility, though as we have said, 1917 could
simply be a juggernaut.
Then, you have the Mouse House. No Star Wars film outside
the original trilogy has been awarded in this category, and The Rise of
Skywalker is not well liked. As far as effects, it looks like a Star
Wars film, which is fine. Avengers: Endgame, the other “conclusion”
(we’ll see) to an epic saga, is the highest-grossing film of all time and
simply could not exist without its effects. Again, no Marvel film has ever won
this award, and the studio’s lone Best Picture nominee (Black Panther)
was not even nominated. At best, most of Marvel’s films simply feature the most
effects, and sometimes, those effects are spotty.
On the other hand, The Lion King is a film that has
no reason to exist except to show off the brilliance of its visual effects
(that, and to make a billion dollars). One thing the Academy loves, as well, is
when a film brings to life realistic animal characters, whether it is done well
(The Jungle Book, Life of Pi) or done poorly (The Golden
Compass). Here, it is done exceptionally well. Expect 1917 and The
Irishman to split the prestige vote and for The Lion King to win a
well-deserved award. Then, expect Disney to learn the wrong lesson from that
award. I look forward to the photorealistic A Bug’s Life in 2030.
Will win: The Lion King
Should win: The Irishman
Should have been here: Ad Astra
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees
Bombshell, Kazu Hiro, Anne Morgan, and Vivian Baker
Joker, Nicki Ledermann and Kay Georgiou
Judy, Jeremy Woodhead
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, Paul Gooch, Arjen
Tuiten, and David White
1917, Naomi Donne, Tristan Versluis, and Rebecca Cole
The Academy can be a strange and mercurial organization, and
it is sometimes difficult to parse its reasoning. For the first time in the
history of this award, we have five nominees. The most prior to this had been
four, once in 1999, and there traditionally are three or fewer nominees. There
was no statement about it, no specific reason. The branch just nominated five.
That brings it in line with the rest of the categories, and truth be told, it
was always silly not to have five. It is not as if there are not five or more
worthy films every year. So, here we are.
The same Visual Effects-Best Picture logic tends to hold in
this category. You have to go back to Titanic in 1997 to find a year
when a Best Picture nominee lost Makeup or Makeup and Hairstyling to anything
other than a fellow Best Picture nominee, and it has never happened in a year
with multiple Best Picture contenders nominated. Joker and 1917
are both quite good but also quite subtle, apart from some of the gore effects
in 1917 and Joaquin Phoenix’s face paint in Joker. Maleficent:
Mistress of Evil is an outlier here but does feature some wonderful
prosthetics work, while Judy’s one trick is to turn Renee Zelwegger into
Judy Garland. Mission accomplished.
Really, all that history is just so you know the precedent I
am betting against this year. Hiro is a prosthetics genius who has been
nominated four times and previously won this award for Darkest Hour in 2017.
You can see elements of his Darkest Hour work in Bombshell with
John Lithgow’s transformation into Roger Ailes. But of course, the showstopper
is Charlize Theron becoming Megyn Kelly. The work is truly remarkable, and
Kelly even admitted on Instagram that the poster of Theron in the film even
fooled her own toddler.
The Academy is not afraid of awarding less heralded films in
this category if the work is strong enough. After all, this is category that
made Oscar winners of films such as Suicide Squad, The Wolfman,
and The Nutty Professor. So, while history says to go with 1917
or Joker, instinct says the work of Hiro, Morgan, and Baker on Bombshell
is undeniable.
Will win: Bombshell
Should win: Bombshell
Should have been here: The Irishman
