Countdown to the Oscars: Actors

Welcome to the Last Cinema Standing Countdown to the Oscars for the 2019 movie season! Throughout this series, we will break down all 24 categories with predictions and hopes for the big night. The series continues with the acting categories.

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Nominees

Antonio Banderas for Pain and Glory

Leonardo DiCaprio for Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood

Adam Driver for Marriage Story

Joaquin Phoenix for Joker

Jonathan Pryce for The Two Popes

Even by the standards of a usually competitive category, this was a historic year for the Best Actor race. You could fill out this list of nominees with a wholly different group of five actors, and it would be just as valid. Off the top of my head, try Robert De Niro (The Irishman), Eddie Murphy (Dolemite Is My Name), Adam Sandler (Uncut Gems), Song Kang-ho (Parasite), and Kelvin Harrison Jr. (Waves). At the same time, my feeling is the group we got is historically great as well.

The nomination for Banderas makes me particularly happy as nominees from foreign films are rare (though Pedro Almodovar has a way with pulling off this trick; see Penelope Cruz for Volver in 2006) and I thought Banderas gave the best male performance of the year. Right after that, you have DiCaprio doing career-best work that is bound to be remembered as an also-ran for the Oscar season, if not in the actor’s career. Pryce’s performance is lovely and technically skilled, and the XX-year-old thespian is well deserving of his first career nomination.

When the season started, it appeared this would be a two-horse race between Phoenix and Driver. It has not worked out that way. For the most part, the performances exist on wildly opposite ends of the spectrum. Driver delivers a subdued, nuanced exploration of character, while Phoenix offers a bold, bombastic interpretation of an iconic villain. Both are great, but Phoenix’s work is showier and of the kind the Academy loves to reward. 

Actors, in particular, have been drawn to Phoenix’s performance since Joker debuted. From the improvised bathroom dance to the vocal inflections to the precise facial expressions, it is the kind of work that screams out for a reward without detracting from the film. Phoenix knows the movie he is in and perfectly pitches his performance to the key of the film. For all of that, he will walk away with his first Academy Award.

Will win: Joaquin Phoenix for Joker

Should win: Antonio Banderas for Pain and Glory

Should have been here: Eddie Murphy for Dolemite Is My Name

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Nominees

Cynthia Erivo for Harriet

Scarlett Johansson for Marriage Story

Saoirse Ronan for Little Women

Charlize Theron for Bombshell

Renee Zelwegger for Judy

Consider me baffled by the way this category shook out this year. Zelwegger is going to win her second Oscar for her imitation of Judy Garland in Judy. That much has seem preordained since the film debuted, and that is what I find so baffling. Zelwegger is good in the film, and she is an extremely likable person. But the film was not a hit, nor is it particularly well liked. Somehow, though, Zelwegger has run roughshod over the competition all season, and no contender has seemed able to challenge her lock on this award.

It is a shame because as delightful as Zelwegger is and accomplished though her work may be, it feels like the least adventurous choice possible. The celebrity biopic is a tried and true formula for winning an Oscar, and a win for Judy feels monumentally uninspired. In truth, however, this list of nominees feels a bit uninspired. More exciting choices such as Lupita Nyong’o for Us or Florence Pugh for Midsommar would have livened up this category. But, as a previous Best Actress winner said in her winning role, this is the story you get.

Johansson is doing career-best work in Marriage Story, and if there were going to be a spoiler, the smart money would be on Johansson, particularly with the history of double-nominated performers in mind. Theron is quite good in Bombshell, but as far as voters go, it is possible the quality of the performance is hidden partially by the stellar makeup work that transforms Theron into Megyn Kelly. Cynthia Erivo is the lone actor of color nominated this year, and similarly to Zelwegger, she is working in straight biopic territory. One wishes she had been recognized for her wonderful supporting turn in Widows last year.

Finally, you have Ronan, who at 25 years old is already a four-time Oscar nominee. She appears to be sliding comfortably into the Kate Winslet group of talented young actresses who rack up nominations but have to wait until later in their careers to be honored. She is the beating heart and artistic soul of Greta Gerwig’s amazing Little Women adaptation, but for the third time in five years, the nomination will have to be her reward.

Will win: Renee Zelwegger for Judy

Should win: Scarlett Johansson for Marriage Story

Should have been here: Florence Pugh for Midsommar

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees

Tom Hanks for A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Anthony Hopkins for The Two Popes

Al Pacino for The Irishman

Joe Pesci for The Irishman

Brad Pitt for Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood

What a group! Here we have five previous Academy Award wins represented (Hanks 2, Hopkins 1, Pacino 1, and Pesci 1), and the lone non-acting winner, Pitt, previously won an Oscar as the producer of the best film of the decade (12 Years a Slave). As with all of the acting categories this year, this has seemed like a lock for months, and Pitt will soon join his fellow nominees as an Oscar-winning actor for his role as a past-his-prime stunt double in Quentin Tarantino’s Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood.

Hanks perfectly captures the spirit of Mr. Rogers in Marielle Heller’s non-traditional “based on a true story” film, and he is back in the Oscar game after 19 years without a nomination, including a shocking snub for Captain Phillips in 2013. On just his sixth nomination, Hanks is less an Academy favorite than his reputation as the prestige actor of his time would suggest. His back-to-back wins for Philadelphia (1993) and Forrest Gump (1994) remain among the more delightful anomalies in Academy history, and perhaps this nomination portends a new era for Hanks with this voting body. Not that it will hurt the ever-popular Hanks either way.

Pacino and Pesci are here representing Martin Scorsese’s mob epic The Irishman. While Pacino has the flashier role as outsized union president Jimmy Hoffa, Pesci has been the one earning all the hosannas for his quietly menacing portrayal of an aging mob boss. Hopkins is a bit of a surprise nominee here, and his performance for me was somewhat overshadowed by Jonathan Pryce’s leading performance in The Two Popes, but it seems the Academy was just excited to see Hopkins back doing good work on the big screen (as long as you didn’t just see the film on Netflix).

The winner, however, is Pitt. He has picked up all the precursor awards, and he has the backing of basically an entire industry excited to see the former Sexiest Man Alive recognized for his acting prowess. The role is a variation on certain notes contained within the Pitt persona, which makes this smart casting on Tarantino’s part, but Pitt is making enough distinct choices with the character that the performances is allowed to bloom fully. So, while this is something of a lifetime achievement award for Pitt, the Academy at least is picking the right film for such an honor.

Will win: Brad Pitt for Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood

Should win: Al Pacino for The Irishman

Should have been here: Wesley Snipes for Dolemite Is My Name

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Nominees

Kathy Bates for Richard Jewell

Laura Dern for Marriage Story

Scarlett Johansson for Jojo Rabbit

Florence Pugh for Little Women

Margot Robbie for Bombshell

Stop me if you have heard this before, but this race has been over for months. Dern locked up this award early in the season and just kept delivering funny, heartfelt speeches. She has been nominated twice before this, but this is the first time she has been within shouting distance of the win, and it does not appear to be getting away from her. Her empowered, feminist divorce lawyer is one of the most refreshing parts of Noah Baumbach’s Marriage Story, and Dern makes strong choice after strong choice to bring fully to life a character who could seem one note on the page.

Speaking of characters who could be one note on the page, a popular hashtag around Little Women this year has been #JusticeForAmy, referring to the bratty middle sister in Louisa May Alcott’s classic tale. Portrayed almost always as immature, whiny, and downright unlikable, Pugh finds the wounded heart at the core of the character and infuses her with reason and understanding like we have rarely seen. Beyond the story elements, though, Pugh is transformative in the role, and it completes a trifecta of stunning turns this year from the young performer. This will not be her last nomination.

The Bates nomination may seem out of left field for a movie that received mixed to negative critical notices and utterly bombed at the box office, but never underestimate the Academy’s love for one of its own. Bates is a true actor’s actor, and she has ridden that love to her fourth nomination. Robbie, meanwhile, is good in Bombshell and has a couple of standout scenes, but I cannot help but think she is here for the wrong film. I would much rather have seen her recognized for her role as Sharon Tate in Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood, but a lack of dialogue probably doomed her chances for that.

Then, there is Johansson, who becomes just the 12th actor in Academy history to be nominated for two performances in the same year. Of the previous 11, seven of those performers ended up with an Oscar at the end of the night. Johansson seems destined, however, to join the other group, those who lost two awards on the same night. It is a good group, consisting of Cate Blanchett, Julianne Moore, Emma Thompson, and Sigourney Weaver. Perhaps there is some solace in that, though of course, there is no shame in losing to Dern here.

Will win: Laura Dern for Marriage Story

Should win: Florence Pugh for Little Women

Should have been here: Shuzhen Zhao for The Farewell