Last Cinema Standing: Totally Accurate, 100 Percent Guaranteed 2023 Academy Awards Predictions*

Are we back in the era of “the big winner?” Last year, Everything Everywhere All at Once won seven Academy Awards, the most since Gravity won seven in 2013 and the most for a Best Picture winner since Slumdog Millionaire in 2008. I’m currently projecting Oppenheimer for seven wins, but it could easily tack on one or two more if a couple things break differently than we’re thinking. Look out for Sound and Adapted Screenplay, in particular.

It used to be relatively common for the Best Picture winner to dominate the proceedings and take home a big awards haul, but for a 10-year run from 2012-2021, no Best Picture winner won more than four awards and only four of the 10 even won the most Oscars in their respective years. We’ve discussed before the split between the big, technical achievement that wins all the below-the-line awards (Mad Max: Fury Road, La La Land, Dune, etc.) and the smaller, more intimate movie that wins the top prize (Spotlight, Moonlight, CODA, etc.). Don’t expect a split this year, though. Oppenheimer is both the big, technical achievement and the hard-hitting drama. It’s just a question of how big the win will be.

One last interesting thing to note: The top two winners of this century so far have been The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, which won 11 awards in 2003, and the aforementioned Slumdog Millionaire, with eight wins in 2008. Neither of those films won any acting awards, whereas Everything Everywhere won three acting trophies and Oppenheimer is projected for two.

Okay, on with the show. Check out my full predictions below, and click on any of the category names to go to a full breakdown of the nominees. Then, come back after the show for a full breakdown and analysis of all the winners. Have fun!

*I feel pretty good about these predictions, which means I’ll probably be way off. Last year, I went 17 for 23. Elvis and Babylon really killed me, and I should have predicted more for All Quiet on the Western Front. That’s what’s fun about this. No matter how much you think you know, there are always surprises.

**I’m going to do something I’ve never done before, so bear with me. I have changed one of my predictions. Since I wrote my piece on the award for Best Production Design, I rewatched Barbie with Greta Gerwig’s director’s commentary, and I simply don’t see how any Academy member can watch that film and not reward the amazing sets and art direction. So, apologies. If you click the link there, the prediction will not match, but what’s below is my official final word on the subject.

Picture

Will win: Oppenheimer

Should win: Killers of the Flower Moon

Director

Will win: Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer

Should win: Martin Scorsese for Killers of the Flower Moon

Actress

Will win: Lily Gladstone in Killers of the Flower Moon

Should win: Sandra Huller in Anatomy of a Fall

Actor

Will win: Cillian Murphy in Oppenheimer

Should win: Cillian Murphy in Oppenheimer