Showing posts with label Hidden Figures. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hidden Figures. Show all posts

Sunday, February 26, 2017

Totally Accurate, 100 Percent Guaranteed 2016 Academy Awards Predictions*



This is the third year running I have put out theses absolutely perfect predictions (with wide, wide margin for error), and in the previous two, there have been open questions extending even to the top award. This year, that question does not exist. The only major question is how high Damien Chazelle’s throwback Hollywood musical La La Land can soar. Can it set the record with 12 wins? Count ’em below if you want to know what I think.

That does not mean there is no intrigue. Far from it. From Best Actor to Best Documentary to Best Foreign Language Film, we will be in the dark until the moment the envelope is opened and someone’s life changes forever. So, sit back, relax, and embrace the mystery. Here are Last Cinema Standing’s Totally Accurate, 100 Percent Guaranteed 2016 Academy Awards Predictions*. Click on any category to see a full breakdown of the nominees, and check back here after the show for a full recap and analysis. Have fun.

*Guarantee this year is valid everywhere but no requests for refund will be honored.

Will win: La La Land
Should win: Moonlight

Will win: Damien Chazelle for La La Land
Should win: Barry Jenkins for Moonlight

Will win: Casey Affleck for Manchester by the Sea
Should win: Denzel Washington for Fences

Will win: Emma Stone for La La Land
Should win: Natalie Portman for Jackie

Will win: Mahershala Ali for Moonlight
Should win: Mahershala Ali for Moonlight

Will win: Viola Davis for Fences
Should win: Viola Davis for Fences

Will win: La La Land
Should win: The Lobster

Will win: Moonlight
Should win: Fences

Will win: La La Land
Should win: Silence

Will win: La La Land
Should win: Hacksaw Ridge

Will win: La La Land
Should win: La La Land

Will win: La La Land
Should win: Jackie

Will win: Star Trek Beyond
Should win: Star Trek Beyond

Will win: Hacksaw Ridge
Should win: Hacksaw Ridge

Will win: La La Land
Should win: La La Land

Will win: La La Land
Should win: Jackie

Will win: “Audition (Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land
Should win: “How Far I’ll Go” from Moana

Will win: The Jungle Book
Should win: The Jungle Book

Will win: Zootopia
Should win: Moana

Will win: The Salesman
Should win: Land of Mine

Will win: O.J.: Made in America
Should win: O.J.: Made in America

Will win: La Femme et le TGV
Should win: Sing

Will win: Pear Cider and Cigarettes
Should win: Piper

Will win: Watani: My Homeland
Should win: 4.1 Miles

Predicted big winners

La La Land – 11
Moonlight – 2

Friday, February 24, 2017

Countdown to the Oscars: Best Picture

Writer-director Barry Jenkins' masterful Moonlight is among the nine nominees this year for Best Picture.

Welcome to Last Cinema Standing’s Countdown to the Oscars, our daily look at this year’s Academy Awards race. Be sure to check back every day leading up to the ceremony for analysis of each of the Academy’s 24 categories and more.

Best Picture


The nominees are:

Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

It has been a few years now since a movie ran away from the pack. Last year, it felt like any of four films could have been called out for the top award. Before that, Birdman and Boyhood battled it out for the big prize, and 12 Years a Slave and Gravity the year before. You have to look back to Argo in 2012 for the last time a film gobbled up everything on its way to the big win at the Oscars. Jack Nicholson and Michelle Obama presented that award. Can you imagine such a thing now? Damn it, it has only been a month, and it seems so long ago that hope mattered or was even possible.

We have talked in this series about the new president and his administration and how these awards reflect a cultural backlash against our just-beginning national nightmare. It is no coincidence we see films nominated like Iranian master Asghar Farhadi’s The Salesman, Ava DuVernay’s 13th, and shorts like The White Helmets, Watani: My Homeland, 4.1 Miles, and Ennemis Intérieurs. All of these films directly confront the most pressing issues of the day.

I have every hope the winners of Academy Awards on Sunday will use the platform of the ceremony to speak out, to protest, and to sound a rallying cry to the rest of us. There is no doubt the administration and its supporters, in an attempt to stoke class divisions and nurture their beloved us-vs.-them mentality, will point to this as yet another example of Hollywood elitism. I prefer to think of the Academy as speaking for the majority of Americans, who do not support the hate, racism, sexism, bigotry, and ignorance spewing from and encouraged by the White House.

The Academy Awards are a big, fancy-dress ball being held at a time when it almost does not seem worth it to get out of bed in the morning. It has been hard all season to look forward to Sunday evening with any real joy or anticipation. Political events seemed to have sucked the very idea of joy out of our national consciousness. So, I understand if some people do not want to watch (mostly) rich people get dressed up and award each other gold statues, but I would also argue it means more than that.

Th nine Best Picture nominees listed above and discussed below are about us and how we feel right now in this place and time. Some of us want escape, some want confrontation, some need inspiration, and others just need to see themselves reflected in a world turned upside down. Roger Ebert, that greatest of all film writers, once said: “For me, the movies are like a machine that generates empathy. It lets you understand a little bit more about different hopes, aspirations, dreams, and fears. It helps us to identify with the people who are sharing this journey with us.” If ever there were a time we needed that machine, it is now.

La La Land (directed by Damien Chazelle) – As an Oscar contender, there is nothing that compares to La La Land in the history of the Academy. It is just the third film in 89 years of ceremonies to garner 14 nominations. The first to do so was All About Eve in 1950. While both films are ostensibly show-business films, All About Eve is a dark, cynical satire, while Chazelle’s film is an earnest paean to the magic of art. The other film with 14 nominations is Titanic, which like La La Land is a romance, but let’s not compare the scale of the two. No one need be reminded of the epic nature of James Cameron’s historical fiction, and by comparison, the Hollywood musical seems small.

Chazelle’s film, then, is in a class by itself. It has pulled away from everything else in such an historic manner, I would not be surprised to see it break the record for Oscar wins, shared at 11 by Ben-Hur, Titanic, and The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King. La La Land is double nominated in Best Original Song, so there is one it cannot win, except in the unlikely event of a tie. Ryan Gosling is not among the frontrunners for Best Actor, so there are two. That leaves 12 and the record within reach.

Here are the Awards we can be nearly certain of: Picture, Director, Actress, Cinematography, Art Direction, Costume Design, Original Song, Original Score, and Sound Mixing. That’s nine, which would be an impressive haul and the most since The Return of the King in 2003. Editing and Sound Editing are a toss-up between La La Land and Hacksaw Ridge, while Original Screenplay is between this and Manchester by the Sea, and that is all that stands between Chazelle and history.

The question lingers: Why? Why this film? Why now? A starry-eyed musical romance about two dreamers following their lives’ passions – how does this speak to us today? Well, it is an escape into a fantasy land of hope and optimism, two hours during which you can sink into your chair, click your heels, and be whisked away into another world entirely, a happier world. It is natural, in times such as these, to need such an escape.

I have felt every day since the election: ‘Just bring me another drink, in bed; no worries, I’ll pull the covers back over my head myself.’ I do not suppose I am the only one. La La Land is the briefest of respites from the national depression. It is also a marvelously realized film, and whatever minor flaws it has are covered by its audacity and unbridled enthusiasm.  With it, Chazelle takes his place as one of the modern visionaries of cinema.

Moonlight (directed by Barry Jenkins) – There are a couple films here with an outside shot of upsetting the apple cart, and we will discuss those in a moment, but the only film with a reasonable chance of toppling La La Land is Moonlight. It is the critical favorite by a wide margin. It is second in nominations total behind La La Land, tied with Arrival at eight. More than any of that, though, and what will linger long after the awards have been handed out, it is a uniquely artistic, gorgeously rendered examination of a life. Talk about a machine that generates empathy.

As the film opens, Little (Alex R. Hibbert) could be any of us. He is a small, shy, sensitive boy being bullied for who he is. He meets his mentor, Juan (Mahershala Ali), a drug dealer but a kind man. He grows and becomes Chiron (Ashton Sanders), who is not yet comfortable in his own skin and has difficulty adjusting to the emotional and physical upheaval of adolescence. Finally, he is Black (Trevante Rhodes), a man who embodies all of that – the shy boy, the angry teen, the kind mentor – but still has little idea who he truly wants to be.

Moonlight is glorious because it charts the path of a life that could be any life, but in its specifics and details, it opens a door and invites us to step into this life, which we perhaps only understood intellectually. Jenkins helps us understand emotionally. At the margins of this society are people with the same hopes, fears, dreams, and aspirations as everyone else, but because opportunity never knocked on their doors, their lives took a different path. Most of us will never walk a mile in those shoes, but Moonlight shows us what it is like to lace them up.

Hidden Figures (directed by Theodore Melfi) – Every year, there is a popular favorite, a movie everybody saw and everyone liked and everyone thinks should win Best Picture. Call it the People’s Choice. In the recent past, that would have referred to movies like The Martian, American Sniper, and Gravity. These movies are usually well made, conventional but with an arty pedigree, and huge hits at the box office. Enter Hidden Figures, a well-made flick that feels conventional but has a degree of artiness and is the highest grossing of these nine nominees.

USA Today conducted a recent poll, in conjunction with Fandango, asking 8,000 movie-goers – a sample size a little larger than the Academy – what should win Best Picture. Hidden Figures led with 26 percent of the vote, followed closely by La La Land. Now, 26 percent will get you nowhere on a preferential ballot, which requires 50 percent plus one vote to win, but it is still informative. In a group that contains several crowd-pleasing entertainments, Melfi’s film is the one that pleased the crowd most. That it happens to be about three smart, black women is a wonderful bonus.

Katherine Johnson (Taraji P. Henson), Dorothy Vaughan (Octavia Spencer), and Mary Jackson (Janelle Monáe) are American heroes for what they accomplished, yes, but more for how they accomplished it. To be black in this country has never been easy, and to be a woman in this country has never been easy, and black women have had perhaps the toughest time of anyone. The story of these brilliant people and their work at NASA is inspiring, the script is witty, and the performances are superb, but what matters most is if one more young, black girl – hopefully many more – decides to pursue a career in science or mathematics. That is what we mean when we talk about the power of these movies.

Manchester by the Sea (directed by Kenneth Lonergan) – There is no formula for winning Best Picture or making the kind of movie that will even be nominated. The more cynical among the film commentariat will sometimes see a log line or cast list and declare a film signed, sealed, and delivered for the Academy. Often as not, they are wrong. Speaking in the most general terms, a film needs one of two things to win Best Picture: wow factor or importance. If a film features both, so much the better. The last three Best Picture winners could not be more dissimilar, but they all had one or the other – Spotlight (importance), Birdman (wow factor), and 12 Years a Slave (both).

I mention all of this because Manchester by the Sea was tabbed as an early favorite for the top prize based on the critical response, which was breathless, and its cast and performances, which are universally superb. While it has found love in the nominations process everywhere, it has not caught on anywhere but for lead actor Casey Affleck, though even he is battling off a late charge by Denzel Washington. The reason, it seems to me, is that it lacks either the wow factor of some of these contenders, such as La La Land, Hacksaw Ridge, or Arrival, or the importance of films like Moonlight, Hidden Figures, and even Hell or High Water.

None of this is to say Manchester by the Sea is not a wonderful film, which it is, nor that it failed to accomplish what it sets out to accomplish, which I believe it does. Lonergan’s script is a remarkable achievement of character development, emotional resonance, and quiet humor, and he very well could win an Oscar for it. The work by Affleck, Michelle Williams, Lucas Hedges, and the rest of the cast is outstanding. However, next to the frontrunners, and indeed some of the films ostensibly trailing it, Manchester by the Sea lacks that essential element that would drive Academy members to vote for it.

Hacksaw Ridge (directed by Mel Gibson) – The Oscar story of Hacksaw Ridge is the story of Gibson’s return to the good graces of the Academy. The film, Gibson’s first as director since Apocalypto in 2006, premiered out of competition at the Venice Film Festival and received a 10-minute standing ovation. Its adequate, if not stellar, domestic box-office numbers are mitigated by a solid overseas haul, and the capper came nominations morning with six nods, including Best Picture. Mel Gibson, at least for now, is fully back. We talked a lot about the ethical quandary of that in discussing Best Director, so I will not rehash it here. The work stands alone.

And what beautiful work. Gibson’s credentials as a filmmaker have never been in doubt, and his twin Oscars for directing and producing Braveheart are hard-won, if not necessarily the choices I would have made. What he has needed – what all directors need – has been a story worthy of his gifts. He finds it in the true-life tale of Desmond Doss, a Quaker and conscientious objector during World War II who nonetheless joins the U.S. Army in an effort to preserve as much life on the battlefield as he can while refusing to take a life or even to carry a gun.

For a film that is ostensibly about the virtue of nonviolence, Gibson packs a hell of a lot of blood and guts into his picture, but at no point does he fall into the trap of making war look pretty or poetic. It is gritty, grimy, gross business, and the film depicts the honest darkness with a refreshing lack of sentiment. This is the big action star and action filmmaker in Gibson putting his talents to use in service of a cause larger than mere thrills or entertainment. Hacksaw Ridge uses its trappings as a brutally gory war flick to hide its true nature, that of a grand, glorious anti-war statement.

Arrival (directed by Denis Villeneuve) – Speaking of films that hide their true nature, anyone walking into Arrival expecting to see a traditional alien-invasion movie, with all the attendant firepower and destruction, left sorely disappointed. That is, unless they were able to give themselves over to one of cinema’s truly unique experiences this year – an elliptically told story about the power of words and virtue of patience that ultimately speaks volumes about the world in which we live.

The short story on which the film was based – “The Story of Your Life” by Ted Chiang – was published in 1998, nearly 20 years ago, but its themes and ideas grow more relevant with each passing day. It is a story of communication, of seeing the world through eyes that are not your own, and of accepting that our lives and views are not so big in the grand scheme of things. In a world of radical self-importance and nihilistic individuality, this is perhaps not the message most want to receive, but it is the message we all most need.

Villeneuve’s direction, Amy Adams’ central performance, and the script by Eric Heisserer combine to make sense of a story that by design, has no beginning or end. Events occur, or have occurred, or will occur, seemingly at random, but as the pieces fall together, we get closer to understanding what it all means and how it all fits. This is the character’s journey as well, slowly, methodically coming to understand the whys of the world around her and finally coming to grips with that understanding.

Lion (directed by Garth Davis) – Some movies sneak up on you. You are not prepared for their depth or beauty. You cannot conceive of their brilliance until you are awash in it. I did not expect much from Lion. I had heard all the rave reviews, but most described it as a sort of weepy, which to me suggested it would be emotionally manipulative in some way, that it would not play fair with our hearts and minds. Its trailers did it no favors in selling it as just that kind of film. I went in with decidedly lowered expectations. How wrong I was to have doubted.

Davis’ film is anything but the generic, based-on-a-bestseller melodrama I so dreaded. It is a contemplative, quietly moving, deeply affecting look at the inner turmoil and emotional upheaval of a person whose life is split in two and who cannot move forward until the pieces are put back together. In addition to the remarkable, heart-on-its-sleeve story, the artistry put on display by first-time feature director Davis is positively splendid. The director daringly transitions from a neo-realist, nearly silent opening half into a more dreamlike, surreal second half that blends memory and reality, sensation and absence into a whirlwind of competing emotions that perfectly mirrors the main character’s headspace.

Lion is one of those rare pleasant surprises at the movies. I see enough and read enough that I know what to expect when I buy my ticket and take my seat – most of the time. When a movie comes along like Lion, though, and from the first frame to the last simply bowls me over with its intelligence, its grace, and its beauty, I can do nothing but marvel and appreciate that I have had an experience that does not come around very often.

Hell or High Water (directed by David Mackenzie) – I have a little game I play every year, like a thought experiment, in which I try to guess which Best Picture nominees my dad would enjoy most. I learned my love of film from my father, then as I grew older, I grew a different appreciation for the art of cinema from the one I knew as a child renting VHS tapes from the video store across the street. Suffice to say, my father’s and my taste have diverged.

While there are few films he enjoys that I do not – apart from a few tiresome comedies, which I would not begrudge anyone – I feel certain most of my favorite films would not appeal to him. This does not bother me and is perfectly normal, but when I find a movie I know my father will love, I get excited. It is fun to show something to the man who showed me everything when I was growing up. All of this is a long way of saying Hell or High Water is the kind of rollicking, adventure thriller that will appeal to anyone with an appreciation of cinema or anyone who just wants to have a good damn time.

The magnificence of Mackenzie’s film, written by Taylor Sheridan, lies in its ability to be two things at once. It is a whip-smart, down-home thriller about a couple good ol’ boys on the run from the law and the lawman chasing after them. However, it is also an earnest condemnation of the big-business world and the politics of money that have depressed entire regions of this nation, destroying livelihoods and wrecking futures for generations to come. So few movies can be all things to all people, but Hell or High Water succeeds in entertaining and informing in a way of which I think my dad would approve.

Fences (directed by Denzel Washington) – In just the past two months, I have written thousands of words about the greatness of Fences – its performances, its direction, and above all its writing. There is not much more I can do to convince the unconvinced, to interest the disinterested. I simply sit and wonder how anyone could not be shaken to the bone, moved to their very core, by the story of Troy Maxson (Washington), his wife, Rose (Viola Davis), their son, Corey (Jovan Adepo), Troy’s first son, Lyons (Russell Hornsby), his brother, Gabriel (Mykelti Williamson), and his friend Bono (Stephen Henderson).

Playwright August Wilson’s masterpiece is about these people and the way they live. It is about how they communicate, how they interact with the world, how the world treats them. It is about the ways they wrong each other, care for each other, love each other, and find equal amounts of joy and sorrow in one another. No work of American literature has better captured or better expressed the basic humanness of us all. It is not a blueprint for how to live our lives but a blueprint for how we have already lived. Wilson writes as if he knows who we are, what we have done, and what we will do. He writes this way because he knows all of this of the Maxsons, who stand for every one of us and yet stand alone.

The play, as Wilson’s only true peer Shakespeare once wrote, is the thing. Every bit of brilliance in Fences stems from the words on the page. But Washington’s task does not end there. He is the first director to bring a work by Wilson to the big screen, and his responsibility in so doing is immense. Of course, lest we forget, this is Denzel Washington, one of the great talents of our time, and he lives up to every responsibility he has to the text. He mounts the picture marvelously, performs in it incomparably, and directs it admirably. We are lucky, now, to live in a world where such greatness was captured, even for an instant.

The final analysis


There are certain years in Academy history that stand out for their Best Picture lineups. The first, and most often cited as the greatest year in film history, let alone Academy history, is 1939, when nominated for Best Picture were winner Gone with the Wind, Mr. Smith Goes to Washington, Stagecoach, The Wizard of Oz, and Wuthering Heights, among others.

Another is 1967, 50 years ago now, and as is my understanding the subject of one of those strange, themed Academy Awards ceremony tributes that honor films that came out in the anniversary of the ceremony year, not the year of the films being celebrated. For instance, the ceremony of 50 years ago, honored the films of 1966, much as this one celebrates the achievements of 2016. I digress. In 1967, the nominees were winner In the Heat of the Night, The Graduate, Bonnie and Clyde, Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner, and Doctor Doolittle.

Less often spoken of but to my mind no less miraculous is 1976, when the nominees were winner Rocky, Taxi Driver, Network, All the President’s Men, and Bound for Glory. It has been a while since we have had a year of such vintage, though I would argue 2005, which honored Crash alongside Capote, Goodnight and Good Luck, Brokeback Mountain, and Munich, belongs in the conversation.

La La Land will win Best Picture this year. It will probably sweep the awards in a possibly record-setting fashion. It will do so, however, at the head of a class of nominees that deserves a place on that illustrious list of best years in Academy history. Moonlight and Fences belong to the ages. La La Land is an invigorating, admirable champion from an exciting, young visionary director, and it will be looked back upon fondly.

The other six nominees are all glorious achievements and a year featuring any one of them could not have been a bad year for the movies. These nine films speak to who we are today, the people we were yesterday, and the people we could be tomorrow. Their individual accomplishments are many, but taken together, it is one of the greatest groups the Academy has ever produced, and years from now, generations yet to be born will look back on these films and know something good came from the mess we made of this world. If we cannot say the same about the society we have fostered, at least we do not have to be embarrassed of its cinema.

Will win: La La Land
Should win: Moonlight
Should have been here: O.J.: Made in America

This weekend: I will have up a couple more fun items tomorrow and Sunday morning, including a ranking of all 62 nominated films, so be sure to check back for that, and then, at long last, the big show arrives.

Tuesday, February 14, 2017

Countdown to the Oscars: Best Supporting Actress

Viola Davis is nominated for Best Supporting Actress for her work in Fences.

Welcome to Last Cinema Standing’s Countdown to the Oscars, our daily look at this year’s Academy Awards race. Be sure to check back every day leading up to the ceremony for analysis of each of the Academy’s 24 categories and more.

Best Supporting Actress


The nominees are:

Viola Davis for Fences
Naomie Harris for Moonlight
Nicole Kidman for Lion
Octavia Spencer for Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams for Manchester by the Sea

I promised yesterday I would rail against the obvious category fraud taking place here, so here it goes: Anyone who thinks Rose Maxson (Davis) is a supporting character in Fences is objectively, demonstrably wrong. Not only that, but to consider Rose a “supporting” character is to miss the entire point of her character and in many ways the point of August Wilson’s play, one of its many points, anyway. She is the heart, soul, and center of the story. The version of Fences in which Rose is a “supporting” character is not a version I wish to see.

So how does this narrative form, that Rose is a supporting character and Davis’ a supporting performance? It starts with the studio and its awards campaigners, who believe Davis’ best chance for winning an Oscar is in the Supporting Actress category. In truth, yes, the day it was announced Davis would be campaigned in Supporting Actress, the competition ended. Everyone else was playing for second place. But I cannot believe the critics fell in line with this absurd ruse, that the actors, who honored Davis at the Screen Actors Guild Awards, could not break her out of this box. It boggles the mind.

Now, I will stand up and cheer loudly and vigorously when Davis’ name is called out and she collects the Oscar statue she so richly deserves. Imagine, though, what it would have meant for the world to see the Academy, for just the second time in its 89-year history, to award a black actress Best Actress. It would have been one of the greatest moments in the history of the Academy Awards. Her victory, which is all but assured, will be sweet, but think how much sweeter it could have and should have been.

Viola Davis for Fences – In naming Davis’ work here the best performance by an actress in 2016, I called her a national treasure. This is no exaggeration. When given the kind of material she deserves, the kind that requires depth and honesty and truth and beauty and all of that, Davis delivers every time a performance of depth and honesty and truth and beauty and all of that. Rose Maxson is the role of a lifetime, and Davis, who won the Tony Award for this role when it played on Broadway – in lead actress for those keeping score at home – does not let it pass her by.

Davis is a three-time Oscar nominee, the first time in Supporting Actress for an actual supporting role in Doubt in 2008 and the second time for Best Actress for The Help in 2011. She was the prohibitive frontrunner for The Help but lost to Meryl Streep, who is of course Meryl Streep, so what can you do but tip your cap. There will be no such shock this year. Davis will win. She will receive a standing ovation. And it may just be the best moment of the night.

Naomie Harris for Moonlight – It may seem I am disrespecting the other performances nominated here by suggesting everyone else is playing for second. It is not meant as disrespect but as a show of my overwhelming respect for Davis. The other work cited here is all phenomenal, and Harris in particular delivers a performance of great range and complexity as a drug-addicted mother whose own son seems unknowable to her.

Harris famously had reservations about playing the crack-addicted mother Paula in Moonlight, fearing the trap of playing into obvious stereotypes and caricatures. She was convinced by writer-director Barry Jenkins’ investment in the character and by Paula’s complete emotional arc throughout the film.

The glory of Moonlight is that none of the characters is just one thing, and Harris takes this mission statement as an invitation to explore the rich nature of Paula’s past, present, and future. She strikes a deep vein of emotional truth, eliciting empathy even in Paula’s darkest moments. Were Davis properly cited in the lead category, Harris would be a good bet for the win here and a deserving winner without doubt. As it is, the nomination is likely the reward.

Nicole Kidman for Lion – Kidman may have one of the most difficult careers to pin down of any Hollywood leading lady. The perception of Kidman is that she is an A-list celebrity and movie star of the highest order. She already has won a Best Actress Oscar, for The Hours in 2002, and she has appeared in blockbuster-type films like Batman Forever and The Golden Compass, the relative success and quality of those films not being the point here. To dig deep into her list of credits, however, is to dig into the career of one of the most fearless, experimental, and versatile actresses of our time.

In Lion, she plays Sue Brierly, the adoptive mother of the Indian orphan at the center of the story. Her joy is palpable in offering a second chance at life to a lost child, as is her anguish when she feels that child growing up and slipping away from her. The role of adoptive mother is a thankless one in some ways because no matter your connection, the child has an instinct to know his real mother. This is particularly true in Sue’s case, since her son’s real mother is out there looking for him and never meant to lose him. Kidman plays this inner conflict to perfection, and through her, the audience understands the emotional stakes of the film.

Octavia Spencer for Hidden Figures – In some way or another, each of the women nominated in this category plays a character suffering through the pain of circumstance. There is a wife whose husband gets another woman pregnant, a single mother living in the slums, an adoptive mother losing her grip on her family, and a young mother who suffers a terrible tragedy. Finally, there is Dorothy Vaughan, played by Spencer, whose circumstances may be the most unfair of all. A brilliant mathematician, it is her unfortunate luck to be born a black woman into a segregated world.

What makes Hidden Figures and the women whose story the film tells so inspiring is that they do not allow their obstacles to define them. They define themselves by the ways in which they overcome those obstacles. Vaughan is the supervisor of the black women’s computer unit at NASA, but she is neither treated like a supervisor nor paid like one. Rather than be defeated or retreat into anger, she goes about making herself and her team indispensable, demanding to be noticed for her work simply by doing her work. Spencer, an Oscar winner in this category for The Help, is a joy to watch, playing Vaughan’s moment of triumph as a well-earned relief. Finally, she says, and we all agree.

Michelle Williams for Manchester by the Sea – Williams’ screen time as Randi in Manchester by the Sea is brief, limited to just a couple scenes, but her impact is tremendous. In a film built largely around emotionally devastating moments, Randi’s short, awkward, painful reunion with her ex-husband (Casey Affleck) may take the cake for most heartrending.

Randi is a woman whose new life is built on the ashes of unimaginable tragedy, and Williams shows us how she is always a word, a glance, a moment from everything crumbling into dust again. Watching her try to hold it together in the face of this knowledge is a marvel, and Williams is expert in conveying her fragile foundation. Affleck’s character demonstrates what happens when we bury grief too deeply, allowing it to become a part of who we are. Williams’ Randi is the other side of that coin, what happens when the grief is always right there, just under the surface.

The final analysis


Two words: Viola Davis. Four, if you prefer: Viola Davis, Oscar winner.

Will win: Viola Davis for Fences
Should win: Viola Davis for Fences
Should have been here: Judy Davis for The Dressmaker

Tomorrow: Best Foreign Language Film

Sunday, February 12, 2017

Countdown to the Oscars: Best Adapted Screenplay

Janelle Monae, Taraji P. Henson, and Octavia Spencer in Hidden Figures, nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay.

Welcome to Last Cinema Standing’s Countdown to the Oscars, our daily look at this year’s Academy Awards race. Be sure to check back every day leading up to the ceremony for analysis of each of the Academy’s 24 categories and more.

Best Adapted Screenplay


The nominees are:

Arrival, written by Eric Heisserer
Fences, written by August Wilson
Hidden Figures, written by Allison Schroeder and Theodore Melfi
Lion, written by Luke Davies
Moonlight, written by Barry Jenkins and Tarell Alvin McCraney

There is an elephant in the room this year that cannot be ignored when it comes to Best Adapted Screenplay. It is an occurrence so unique as to be without precedent in the history of the Academy. Perhaps the greatest thing ever written in the English language is William Shakespeare’s Hamlet. It has been adapted into countless films, including Sir Laurence Olivier’s Best Picture-winning production in 1948. Even that, though, was not nominated for Screenplay.

In fact, the only direct adaptation of a Shakespeare play ever nominated in this category was Kenneth Branagh’s stately 1996 mounting of Hamlet, which lost the award to Billy Bob Thornton and Sling Blade. This is ludicrous if you give it any thought. As fine as Thornton’s Sling Blade script is – and it is a fine film – its competition was one of the greatest pieces of literary art ever gifted to this world. I mention all of this because the scenario likely to play out at this year’s Academy Awards is strikingly similar with one huge difference.

Fences – The difference is Wilson, the closest the world will ever get to an American Shakespeare. While Denzel Washington may have taken on directing duties, this is Wilson’s adaptation of his own Pulitzer Prize-winning play, completed before his death in 2005. Imagine if the Bard himself had given instructions how to film Romeo and Juliet, and you have some idea of the magnitude of this work.

Wilson’s Century Cycle, chronicling the black experience in America through each decade of the 20th century, is as important to the English literary canon as the First Folio. I was fortunate enough to see Jitney recently in its first Broadway run, despite being completed first of the cycle and premiering in Pittsburgh in 1982. Coincidentally, the production co-stars André Holland, who also stars in Moonlight. Wilson’s words, as ever, flow forth like a river, caressing every bend and charging forward relentlessly but majestically.

But Fences – glorious, wondrous, magical Fences – is Wilson’s crowning achievement, perhaps the crowning achievement in American literature, give or take a Mark Twain, an Ernest Hemingway or Wilson contemporary Toni Morrison. The story of Troy Maxson (Washington) and his family is the story of black Americans’ past, present, and future in this country, which is to say it is the story of the past, present, and future of this country.

Wilson is never afraid to tackle big ideas or grand themes head on, attacking prejudice, racial injustice in all its forms, and economic inequality with all the righteous indignity and furious anger such topics deserve. He gives his audiences – black, white, whatever – credit for being smart and demands that we keep up, insists that we follow wherever he leads, and never once disappoints us at the destination. In a just world, there would be no competition in this category as there is Fences and everything else, but as Wilson’s characters can tell you, we sure don’t live in that world.

Moonlight – I have been effusive in my praise of Wilson and Fences because the work warrants it, but that should not diminish the accomplishments of the other nominees, particularly Jenkins’ and McCraney’s alternately devastating and inspiring portrait of youth and young manhood. Based in part on McCraney’s play In Moonlight Black Boys Look Blue, Jenkin’s adds his own riff on the material with an entirely original third act that rounds out the story and brings its protagonist full circle to face the man he is and wants to be.

It is courageous storytelling by Jenkins and McCraney on every level – structurally daring, narratively fearless, and socially audacious. Bravo to both of these men for telling the story of a young, gay, black boy with compassion, honesty, and fearlessness. These are the kinds of stories the world needs more of and which deserve to be seen far and wide by anyone and everyone. It is no secret I will be pulling for Wilson’s Fences to win this category, but Moonlight is a film with the power to change lives. A win for it here or anywhere else has the power to change even more, and who could begrudge a film that?

Hidden Figures – The feel-good hit of the winter, Hidden Figures is a box-office smash that tells the story of three unheralded women and gives them their rightful place in American history. It is smart, funny, and touching work in the classic big-Hollywood vein, reminiscent of something like Apollo 13 or The Right Stuff. It prizes and celebrates intelligence, which is something far too rare in cinema these days, and it hopefully will inspire a generation of young girls, particularly young black girls, to pursue an interest in math and science.

Given all of that, I still cannot help but feel Melfi’s and Schroeder’s script is a bit too by-the-numbers. Hidden Figures hits all the expected beats of a biopic, particularly one about the Civil Rights era, and while I have no doubts about the veracity of the stories it tells, I wish the writers had found a more interesting way to tell them. To be sure, the film is effective, it works on every level, but as breezy and fun as it is, it is hard not to see the gears grinding along. Hidden Figures is wonderful, but a story this unique deserves a unique telling.

Lion – Adapted from Saroo Brierly’s best-selling memoir “A Long Way Home,” Davies’ script was faced with the challenge of turning an inherently uncinematic story into a narratively propulsive film. Played in the movie by Sunny Pawar when a child and Oscar nominee Dev Patel when an adult, Brierly is a man who attempts to find his birth mother through Google Earth searches, sketchy mathematics, maps of train routes, and the power of 20-year-old memories. Not one of those things, let alone all in congress, should work on screen, but Davies, aided by the spirited and inventive direction of Garth Davis, finds the film in Brierly’s words.

The film’s first act is an incredible leap of faith on Davies’ part, telling the story of how Saroo ends up so far away from home in a nearly wordless montage of events and images. Davies rightly does not clutter the narrative with contrived dialogue or over-simplified exposition; rather, he allows the audience to become a part of Saroo’s world, to see through his eyes the experience of being lost and alone, a stranger in a strange land. By the time we get to the search later in Saroo’s life, we are so heavily invested in the character we would watch him do anything to achieve his goal. That ultimately is the trick of Davies script – though gifted a compelling story that peaks curiosity, the film’s character-first approach ensures empathy.

Arrival – I have not read Ted Chiang’s short story “Story of Your Life,” on which this film is based, but word has it that it is unfilmable. Well, Heisserer and director Denis Villeneuve put lie to that assertion definitively. We have talked a lot about the looping narrative structure of Arrival and how its various nominated crafts contribute to its success. Of course, that narrative structure begins with the script, which operates throughout on two levels – as a straight science-fiction thriller and as an impressionistic mystery, which does not reveal its secrets until the denouement.

Arrival certainly stands out on Heisserer’s résumé, which is mostly horror, including the Nightmare on Elm Street reboot and The Thing remake/reboot/prequel. Heisserer also wrote and directed Hours, one of Paul Walker’s final films, which I have not seen. Without meaning this as a knock, nothing in Heisserer’s limited oeuvre suggests the levels of sophistication, subtly, and compassion on display in Arrival, and one hopes he has further opportunities to show off his skills on material worthy of them.

The final analysis


It has been 18 years since a film not nominated for Best Picture won this category, and that streak continues this year with every nominee cited for both this and the top award. This is just the third time since the expansion of the Best Picture category all five Adapted Screenplay nominees are recognized in both places, and the feat was even rarer before the rules change.

Best Picture heat obviously helps in this category, and with Moonlight sitting in the catbird seat to play spoiler, it is the prohibitive favorite to win here. Most likely right on its heels is Hidden Figures, which will appeal most broadly to the Academy as a whole and is the kind of witty, inspirational script for which members like to vote. Fences is probably running third, and Wilson is unlikely to pick up a posthumous Oscar, though his legacy hardly needs the additional honor. In point of fact, a Wilson win would do more for the Academy than any other group or person, proof the members are hip enough and smart enough to award a once-in-an-empire talent.

Will win: Moonlight
Should win: Fences
Should have been here: Love & Friendship

Tomorrow: Best Supporting Actor

Tuesday, January 31, 2017

Countdown to the Oscars: Build me up, Buttercup



Welcome to Last Cinema Standing’s Countdown to the Oscars, our daily look at this year’s Academy Awards race. Be sure to check back every day leading up to the ceremony for analysis of each of the Academy’s 24 categories and more.

Build me up, Buttercup. Don’t break my heart. It’s a good song but even better advice if you want to win Best Picture. The Academy, as much as it loves and honors great art and artists, wants uplift. It wants joy. It wants what Roger Ebert used to call Elevation. It is the feeling of warmth, hope, and generosity of spirit we experience when we see good people do good things. This is what makes Casablanca, enjoying a theatrical run now for its 75th anniversary, such an enduring piece of cinema.

Though I cannot speak for all time, I can say with great certainty never in my lifetime have we needed uplift in our art more than now. One looks at the world and, if seeing events through clear eyes, can hardly be blamed for wanting to escape, if only for two hours in the dark of the cinema and story of another place and time.

Academy members are like the rest of us in that regard, so it should come as no shock a confectionary delight such as La La Land leads this year’s Oscar race with a record-tying list of nominations. Damien Chazelle’s musical ode to dreams and dreamers is Elevation at its finest, which is not to say it does not deal in hard truths or difficult realities. It does but in such a way you leave the theater skipping and humming a tune.

The Hurt Locker in 2009, the first year of the expanded Best Picture lineup, was probably the last film to win the top prize without providing some kind of rousing, crowd-pleasing ending or at least the hope for a brighter tomorrow. Even Birdman, a dark, sharp-edged show-business satire, which won two years ago, found its moment of artistic transcendence. 12 Years a Slave, one of the darkest, most brutal Best Picture winners ever – and one of the best – ends on a note of quiet triumph. Those two films plus Spotlight last year, Argo, The Artist, and The King’s Speech are films whose ultimate messages consist of good will, inspiration, and the power of the human spirit.

This is not a knock on the Academy. Every one of those films has merit and a couple are stone-cold masterpieces. It is simply an observation and a way of looking at the Oscar race and identifying a trend. That trend’s place in this year’s race, then, seems self-evident. La La Land is a juggernaut, and while it may not sweep the ceremony, it will be the night’s biggest winner, scoring handfuls of awards and in all likelihood Best Picture.

The question is whether any other film can stand in its way. Hidden Figures, Lion, and Hacksaw Ridge all satisfy the desire for uplift and inspiration. As solid as they are, though, they cannot compare in that regard to La La Land – otherwise one of them would be the nominations leader and winner of most of the major, early precursors. Hidden Figures’ Screen Actors Guild win for best cast this weekend is a bit a red herring. Despite beating out Moonlight, Fences, and Manchester by the Sea, it feels like a true ensemble piece more than the others, making its victory seem more of the head than the heart.

No, the true challenger to the throne is and always has been Barry Jenkins’ Moonlight. It is the critical darling and a Golden Globe winner, and while it is not exactly uplifting, its message of hope, understanding, and compassion is enough to rival La La Land for Elevation. The big, bright, bold Hollywood musical is sitting in the driver’s seat, but do not sleep on the indie darling. As soon as you think nothing else can win, that is when something else wins (see: Brokeback Mountain vs. Crash; personal confession, by the way, I think Crash is the better film by miles; I thought so at the time and still think so).

Of course, the possibility lingers we are looking at a sweep year. La La Land could very well take home a record number of Oscars, and the night could turn into a coronation for Chazelle as he becomes the new king of Hollywood. If such is the case, Emma Stone will likely be carried to the podium as Best Actress, though her win at the SAG Awards perhaps foretells this already. Mahershala Ali and Viola Davis are locks in their respective supporting categories.

Denzel Washington’s SAG victory throws the Best Actor race into some doubt, but I suspect the Screen Actors, with whom Washington had never won, finally wanted to honor one of the giants of the art form. He already has two Oscars, and the Academy will not feel the same pressure to reward him again, paving the way for Casey Affleck to resume his dominance of the season. If so, there could be very few, if any, surprises in the top categories when the envelopes are opened.

This is not necessarily a bad thing. The Academy Awards do not have to be about only who wins statues and which films win the most. Oscar night is an evening of celebration, a joyous paean to the art of cinema itself. In many ways, the nomination truly is the reward if the goal of a film ultimately is to be seen by as many people as possible. There is little advertising better than a shout-out from the Oscar stage.

The beauty of the Oscars, though, is that anything can happen, and until the envelope is opened, you never know. So, join me here every day in February for in-depth analysis of each of the 24 categories and come along for the ride as we make our way to that world-famous red carpet.

Tuesday, January 24, 2017

Academy Award nominations announced: La La Land ties record with 14 nominations

Moonlight, La La Land, and Lion all came away with multiple Oscar nominations this morning, including Best Picture.

There you have it. La La Land, from wunderkind writer-director Damien Chazelle, becomes just the third movie in Academy history to score 14 nominations, joining All About Eve and Forrest Gump. Both of those films won Best Picture, and the kind of momentum the throwback Hollywood musical is likely to receive from its record-setting nominations haul could carry it through to the big night.

In total, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences nominated nine films for Best Picture this year, and those challenging La La Land for the top prize are those we pretty much expected: Arrival, Fences, Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, Hidden Figures, Lion, Manchester by the Sea, and Moonlight.

La La Land came away with every nomination it conceivably could have, being named for Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Actor (Ryan Gosling), Actress (Emma Stine), Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Costumes, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Original Score, and twice in Original song for “Audition (Fools Who Dream)” and “City of Stars.”

Mel Gibson directing Hacksaw Ridge
As we predicted here, the Academy matched the DGA 4-for-5, nominating Chazelle, Denis Villeneuve for Arrival, Kenneth Lonergan for Manchester by the Sea, and Barry Jenkins for Moonlight but opting for Mel Gibson and Hacksaw Ridge over Garth Davis for Lion. Gibson’s big, bloody anti-war film came up big, also pulling down the all-important Editing nomination, notices in both sound categories, and recognition for Andrew Garfield in Best Actor.

Also with six nominations were Lion, which found room for both Dev Patel and Nicole Kidman in the respective Supporting categories, as well as Cinematography, Score, and Adapted Screenplay, and Manchester by the Sea, which as predicted secured only above-the-line nominations for Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, and three acting awards, Casey Affleck in Actor, Lucas Hedges in Supporting Actor, and Michelle Williams in Supporting Actress.

Trailing La La Land with the second-most nominations were Villeneuve’s emotional sci-fi epic Arrival and Jenkins’ tender coming-of-age tale Moonlight, which each garnered eight nominations. Arrival’s haul was predicted, and it added Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Production Design, and Editing to its Picture and Director nominations. The strength of Moonlight, however, was the morning’s most pleasant surprise and indicates the Academy really loved this beautiful little film. In addition to Picture and Director, it picked up nods for Mahershala Ali in Supporting Actor, Naomi Harris in Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography, and Score.

Hell or High Water (Picture, Original Screenplay, Jeff Bridges for Supporting Actor, and Editing) and Fences (Picture, Denzel Washington for Best Actor, Viola Davis for Supporting Actress, and Adapted Screenplay) each came away with four nominations, while Hidden Figures trails the Best Picture nominees with three notices (Picture, Octavia Spencer for Supporting Actress, and Adapted Screenplay).

Outside the Best Picture nominees, which sucked up most of the air in the room, the Academy spread the love around. Jackie came away with three nominations – Natalie Portman for Best Actress, Costumes, and Score – and no other film garnered more than two.

Ruth Negga in Loving
Joining Stone and Portman in Best Actress are Isabell Huppert for Elle, Meryl Streep for Florence Foster Jenkins, and, in a lovely surprise, Ruth Negga for Loving. Affleck, Garfield, Gosling, and Washington will be joined in Best Actor by Viggo Mortenson in Captain Fantastic. The Supporting Actress nominees – Davis, Harris, Kidman, Spencer, and Williams – all come from Best Picture nominees, as do four of the five Supporting Actor nominees – Ali, Bridges, Hedges, and Patel, who are joined by Michael Shannon for Nocturnal Animals.

It was a morning short on surprises, but the biggest one was probably Gibson getting in for Best Director. Perhaps this means the industry has forgiven him for the multiple personal scandals that made him a pariah for years, or perhaps it means only his artistry in bringing Hacksaw Ridge to the screen could not be denied.

Shannon and Negga were wonderful surprises in their respective categories. Shannon likely got in over co-star Aaron Taylor-Johnson (while Hedges probably pushed out Hugh Grant in Florence Foster Jenkins), and Negga’s mention meant there was no room for Amy Adams in Arrival or Annette Bening for 20th Century Women, a performance which sadly never picked up steam this season in a crowded field, though the film did pick up a well deserved Original Screenplay nomination for writer-director Mike Mills.

Moana
My favorite nominations this morning came in the Documentary category, where a trio of powerful films about race in America dominated – O.J.: Made in America, I Am Not Your Negro, and 13th – joined by Fire at Sea and Life, Animated. I was delighted to see The Lobster nominated for Original Screenplay and to see Moana pull down two nominations, for Animated Feature and Original Song for Lin-Manuel Miranda’s “How Far I’ll Go.” That August Wilson is an Academy Award nominee for writing Fences pleases me to no end, and both of Jackie’s crafts nominations were well earned.

It was unfortunate the Academy could find no room for Weiner in Best Documentary, nor anywhere for the powerful Irish drama I, Daniel Blake, which was a hit with the BAFTA but was probably too Anglo-centric for Oscar voters. I also wish the Academy would have given more consideration to Martin Scorsese’s masterful Silence, which was nominated only for its lush cinematography. Time will reveal Scorsese’s passion project to be the brilliant work of art that it is.

As for my predictions, I nailed Best Picture, with my nine most likely nominees all getting in. I had guessed Hell or High Water’s David Mackenzie bumping Lion’s Garth Davis over Gibson in Best Director. In Actor and Actress, I also hit four out of five, as the Academy went with Mortenson over my longshot pick, Jake Gyllenhaal for Nocturnal Animals, and Negga over Adams. I went 5-for-5 in Supporting Actress but just 3-for-5 in Supporting Actor, failing to predict Shannon over Taylor-Johnson and thinking Hedges’ age might keep him out for Grant. I hit Adapted Screenplay with a perfect 5-for-5 but missed 20th Century Women in Original, opting instead for Zootopia.

I have yet to see the online chatter – something I try to avoid under the best of circumstances anyway – but I enjoyed the Academy’s nominations show. It was fun seeing past nominees discuss what it felt like to wake up nominations morning and hear your name called, and I thought it was a breezy, fleet-footed affair that I would not mind seeing blown out even a little more.

As far as what might win when the statues are handed out, we will discuss that in great detail over the next five weeks, but La La Land is sitting pretty and could very well sweep this whole season. Moonlight, however, with its stronger-than-predicted showing, cannot be counted out just yet. We will know soon enough. Until then, I’ll see you at the movies.

For a full list of nominees, click here.

Friday, January 20, 2017

Holding pattern: The Oscar race ahead of nominations day



We know everything we are going to know leading up to the Academy Awards nominations. Voting closed last Friday, the critics have had their say, the Golden Globes were handed out, and the British Academy and major guilds have announced their nominations. The Oscar nominees will be announced Tuesday, leaving us with a few days to wait and wonder. So, let’s have some fun wondering.

It is a three-horse race and has been for some time, even as one horse seems to have pulled well in front. In the early phases of the race, the critics went in a big way for Barry Jenkins’ tender coming-of-age drama Moonlight. Meanwhile, the flashier awards shows such as the Golden Globes and Broadcast Film Critics Association spoke up for Damien Chazelle’s lush Hollywood musical La La Land. Where those films failed to gain traction – or more likely split the vote at the top – Kenneth Lonergan’s mediation on grief Manchester by the Sea snuck through to cement itself as the third major player in the race.

If you will recall, this is roughly where we stood last year at this time. Moonlight is in the Spotlight role as critical champion, La La Land is similar to The Revenant in its Globes triumph and its obvious technical bona fides, while Manchester by the Sea is the more middle-of-the-road contender no one hates like The Big Short. The parallels are not precise, but they are informative when trying to figure out where this race stands and just where it may be heading.

Outside the top category and outside the three frontrunners, the industry nominations from the various crafts and above-the-line guilds can lead us to the other films that could be making a major play for recognition. Trends emerge as we compare what films show up on most groups’ lists and which films are most hurt by their absence from such lists.

Here are the big guilds, what they have had to say so far, and what that may mean:

Producers: Arrival; Deadpool; Fences; Hacksaw Ridge; Hell or High Water; Hidden Figures; La La Land; Lion; Manchester by the Sea; Moonlight

Directors: Denis Villeneuve (Arrival); Chazelle (La La Land); Garth Davis (Lion); Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea); Jenkins (Moonlight)

Actors: Best ensemble – Captain Fantastic; Fences; Hidden Figures; Manchester by the Sea; Moonlight

Writers: Original screenplay – Hell or High Water; La La Land; Loving*; Manchester by the Sea; Moonlight*. Adapted screenplay – Arrival; Deadpool; Fences; Hidden Figures; Nocturnal Animals

Editors: Dramatic – Arrival; Hacksaw Ridge; Hell or High Water; Manchester by the Sea; Moonlight. Comedic – Deadpool; Hail, Caesar!; The Jungle Book; La La Land; The Lobster

Cinematographers: Arrival; La La Land; Lion; Moonlight; Silence

Art Directors: Period – Café Society; Fences; Hacksaw Ridge; Hail, Caesar!; Hidden Figures; Jackie. Fantasy – Arrival; Doctor Strange; Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them; Passengers; Rogue One: A Star Wars Story. Contemporary – Hell or High Water; La La Land; Lion; Manchester by the Sea; Nocturnal Animals

BAFTA: Best film – Arrival; I, Daniel Blake; La La Land; Manchester by the Sea; Moonlight

You can draw the line anywhere you like, and there are other guilds out there – the Costume Designers, Sound Designers, Sound Editors, etc. – but this sampling allows us to come to some pretty clear conclusions.

Best Picture


The strengths of the frontrunners are clear. La La Land, Moonlight, and Manchester by the Sea show up everywhere they conceivably could except for La La Land’s curious weakness with the actors. The Screen Actors Guild did not nominate it for best ensemble, but many would consider the film a two-hander rather than an ensemble piece, and both hands – Emma Stone and Ryan Gosling – were nominated for their lead performances. So, safe to say we can ignore that miss.

Sunny Pawar in Lion
Moonlight was not nominated by the Art Directors despite 16 nominations across three styles, while Manchester by the Sea and La La Land both got in for contemporary. That is mitigated by the fact Moonlight and La La Land were recognized for their cinematography, and Manchester by the Sea was not. Each missed in one place where it could have been nominated, but that is not enough to damage any of their places at the head of the pack.

What does the rest of the pack look like? Arrival and Lion appear incredibly strong, particularly having picked up key nominations from the Producers and Directors guilds. If this were the old days with five nominees, these two would join the three frontrunners, and that would probably be your list. However, these are not the old days, and we could have up to 10 nominees.

Fences and Hidden Figures have key support from the actors and showed up in a number of other places. Right behind those are probably Hacksaw Ridge and Hell or High Water, which could each pick up a number of below-the-line nominations and be carried along to the top category. As for a potential 10th nominee, however unlikely that may be, you have to consider pretty much anything listed above from Captain Fantastic to Deadpool, as crazy as that may sound. My money, however, would be on Nocturnal Animals if the list were to stretch to 10.

Best Picture predictions (in order of likelihood): La La Land; Manchester by the Sea; Moonlight; Arrival; Lion; Hidden Figures; Fences; Hell or High Water; Hacksaw Ridge; Nocturnal Animals

Best Director


The thing to remember about Best Director is there is always a surprise. Always. It rarely matches the DGA 5-for-5. Usually four make it and sometimes only three. Last year, I predicted a perfect match despite issuing almost this exact warning. Four made it, and Lenny Abrahamson surprised for Room. I will not make the same mistake this year. Davis is probably the most vulnerable nominee among the DGA set, which is not a reflection on his stellar work but more of the competitive year in which we find ourselves.

The fifth nominee is almost certain to come from the Best Picture lineup, and David Mackenzie’s work on Western thriller Hell or High Water and Mel Gibson’s comeback vehicle Hacksaw Ridge stand out as particularly worthy. Martin Scorsese must not be counted out for his passion project, Silence, which looks weak elsewhere, but Scorsese’s stature alone could be enough. Remember, he also picked up a solo nomination for The Last Temptation of Christ, the parallels to this case seeming self-evident.

Best Director predictions (in order of likelihood): Chazelle for La La Land; Jenkins for Moonlight; Lonergan for Manchester by the Sea; Villeneuve for Arrival; Mackenzie for Hell or High Water

Best Actor


Casey Affleck has nearly run the table of awards so far and will likely steamroll to the win for Manchester by the Sea. Denzel Washington, as we have noted in this space, turns in work that cannot be denied in Fences. Ryan Gosling will probably be carried along by the love for La La Land.

Denzel Washington in Fences
Viggo Mortenson has been a surprising but consistent addition to the awards season for his performance in Captain Fantastic, while Andrew Garfield has picked up deserved recognition for Hacksaw Ridge, though not for his equally impressive work in Silence.

Hanging on around the margins is Jake Gyllenhaal for Nocturnal Animals, who could be due for some love after being ignored for Nightcrawler two years ago. Also out there are Tom Hanks in Sully, Chris Pine in Hell or High Water, and Joel Edgerton in Loving.

Best Actor predictions (in order of likelihood): Affleck for Manchester by the Sea; Washington for Fences; Gosling for La La Land; Garfield for Hacksaw Ridge; Gyllenhaal for Nocturnal Animals

Best Actress


Refreshingly up in the air, one of the strongest contenders might have to fight just to be nominated, though if she is, she is a threat for the win. That is Isabelle Huppert for her amazing work in Elle, whose chances at a nomination may hinge on whether most votes were cast before or after her endearing, heartfelt best actress speech at the Golden Globes. Meanwhile, Stone is the heart and soul of La La Land, and Natalie Portman carries every second of Jackie.

Annette Bening has not caught on this season as most thought she would for her performance in 20th Century Women, but the work speaks for itself. Meryl Streep is a somewhat depressingly obvious choice for Florence Foster Jenkins, though the performance certainly would be deserving of a nomination in a year with less adventurous choices out there. And yet, the more adventurous choices are out there, among them Ruth Negga in Loving, Sandra Hüller in Toni Erdmann, Amy Adams in Arrival, and SAG-nominated Emily Blunt, who is the only saving grace in the otherwise terrible The Girl on the Train.

Best Actress predictions (in order of likelihood): Stone for La La Land; Portman for Jackie; Streep for Florence Foster Jenkins; Huppert for Elle; Adams for Arrival

Best Supporting Actor


Aaron Taylor-Johnson in Nocturnal Animals
Mahershala Ali dominated the critics awards for his stellar turn in Moonlight and looked likely to sweep everything on his way to a well deserved Oscar. The Golden Globes threw a kink in that plan when they shocked everyone by awarding Aaron Taylor-Johnson for Nocturnal Animals. Taylor-Johnson followed that up with a surprise BAFTA nomination and now appears to have gained steam from out of nowhere. Whether that steam was picking up before the nomination ballots were turned in or after is yet to be determined.

Hell or High Water boasts two possible nominees in Jeff Bridges and Ben Foster, though support often gets thrown to one or the other, which is the same scenario that could block Michael Shannon from a nomination for his work in Nocturnal Animals alongside Taylor-Johnson. Hugh Grant could ride along with Streep to a nomination for Florence Foster Jenkins, while Lucas Hedges was an early contender for Manchester by the Sea who has dropped off the radar but is still out there. If Lion is truly as strong as it looks, Dev Patel could get onto the list as well.

Ali, Bridges, Grant, and Patel all earned both SAG and BAFTA nominations, while Ali, Bridges, and Patel were among the list of actors to lose to Taylor-Johnson at the Globes, where Simon Helberg replaced his Florence Foster Jenkins co-star among the nominees. Taylor-Johnson also has a BAFTA nomination, which would seem to leave Hedges the odd man out.

Best Supporting Actor predictions (in order of likelihood): Ali for Moonlight; Bridges for Hell or High Water; Patel for Lion; Grant for Florence Foster Jenkins; Taylor-Johnson for Nocturnal Animals.

Best Supporting Actress


We talk about category fraud every year, and here it is again, as blatant as ever. I would like nothing more than to see Viola Davis win an Academy Award, and there is about a 99 percent certainty she will this year. She has won nearly every critics award out there. She won the Golden Globe. Expect her to win the SAG award. Nothing is in her way. But her performance in Fences could not be more clearly a lead. She is Washington’s equal in every way. She should win Best Actress; however, the powers that be decided to campaign her as a supporting actress, everyone fell in line, and she will win this award instead.

Playing for second place are Naomi Harris in Moonlight, Michelle Williams in Manchester by the Sea, Octavia Spencer in Hidden Figures, Greta Gerwig in 20th Century Women, Nicole Kidman in Lion, and Janelle Monae, who gives great performances in both Moonlight and Hidden Figures, though Hidden Figures is more likely to be recognized here. All are great and it will probably come down to which films have the most heat overall.

Best Supporting Actress predictions (in order of likelihood): Davis for Fences; Harris for Moonlight; Williams for Manchester by the Sea; Spencer for Hidden Figures; Kidman for Lion

Screenplay


Ben Foster and Chris Pine in Hell or High Water
One thing to note is both Moonlight and Loving were nominated for original screenplay by the WGA but were deemed adapted by the Academy. This has the effect of making the Original Screenplay race a little more open and really crowding the Adapted race, where Moonlight likely has the best shot for the win. Loving, on the other hand, probably won’t make it in the much tighter category. Fences is a lock because August Wilson is a genius, and that is indisputable. Arrival, Lion, and Hidden Figures are deserving adapted pieces, while Nocturnal Animals could be sitting this one out with Loving.

Over in the suddenly loose Original category, Manchester by the Sea and La La Land will duke it out for the win. Hell or High Water is a surefire nominee that could win if the top two split the vote. Dystopian fantasy The Lobster is the exact kind of eccentric project screenwriters often recognize when no one else does. Jackie, Zootopia, and 20th Century Women could all get in as well.

Best Adapted Screenplay predictions (in order of likelihood): Moonlight; Fences; Arrival; Hidden Figures; Lion

Best Original Screenplay predictions (in order of likelihood): La La Land; Manchester by the Sea; Hell or High Water; The Lobster; Zootopia

Below the line & final thoughts


If you are looking for a nominations leader, it will be La La Land, which should be nominated everywhere it is eligible. Mark it down for Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Original Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography, Art Direction, both sound categories, Costume Design, Score, and Song. With two eligible songs, it could threaten to tie the nominations record of 14, but 13 is more likely. Nothing else this year will come close, and it could be the biggest winner since Slumdog Millionaire in 2008.

Moonlight is a safe bet for Editing and Cinematography, the latter of which it could win, while the other Best Picture frontrunner, Manchester by the Sea, is less of a technical juggernaut and might show up only in Editing outside the top categories.

Count on Arrival to show up in a big way below the line, where it could pick up nominations for Cinematography, Editing, Art Direction, Sound, Sound Editing, and Visual Effects, a haul which would likely put it second behind La La Land for total nominations. Lion and Hacksaw Ridge are likely to show strength, as well, with Editing and Cinematography in play for both. Hacksaw Ridge could also be in the mix for both sound categories, Art Direction, and Costume Design.

Films less likely to be in the running for the top awards that could still show up big for their crafts include Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, The Jungle Book, and Passengers, all of which could show up in the sound categories, Visual Effects, Art Direction, and Editing.

Natalie Portman in Jackie
As far as what I would like to see, it has been a great year for documentaries – as evidenced by the pair of docs on my year-end top 10 – and it would be great to see them break out of the documentary ghetto and into the other races. O.J.: Made in America, my No. 1 of the year, deserves consideration in Best Picture, Ezra Edelman for Director, its editing and its remarkable score. Kirsten Johnson’s Cameraperson is a remarkable feat, almost entirely the result of its editing. Gianfranco Rosi’s migrant crisis doc Fire at Sea is among the most gorgeous films of the year and deserves a place in the cinematography race.

All signs point to the Academy breaking its ignominious stretch of years without a black nominee in the acting races with films like Moonlight, Fences, and Hidden Figures all in line for multiple acting nominations. Even still, diversity is more than black and white, and great performances unlikely to be recognized include those of the Korean stars of The Handmaiden, the Japanese supporting performers in Silence, and the Iranian leads of Under the Shadow. This year could be a great start for diversity at the Academy Awards, but the international cinema remains underrepresented.

Ultimately, we should expect Tuesday to be a grand coronation for La La Land. Chazelle announced his presence on the Hollywood scene two years ago with Whiplash, and the Academy announced its love of his work with multiple nominations and wins for that film. The support and nomination counts for the other top contenders will tell us what kind of year we are looking at – a sweep by the feel-good hit of the winter or a more contentious battle in the top categories with several great films duking it out for supremacy. For now, we wait and see.