A Personal History of Oscar Watching: Introduction

Denzel Washington wins Best Actor for Training Day at the 2002 Academy Awards ceremony.

There is a lot going on in the world right now, and it feels like a million years ago that director Bong Joon-ho and his brilliant thriller Parasite triumphed at the 2019 Academy Awards. In fact, as of this writing, it was less than two months ago that a Korean blockbuster ruled Hollywood for one glorious night. At the time, I called it one of the few “moments of pure bliss” the show has offered me since I began truly following the awards.

That got me thinking about those moments of bliss, as well as my personal history with the Oscars. It would be customary to wait for some round-number anniversary or some other made-up milestone to do a look back like this, but given the circumstances, I think a fun reflection on times gone by is timely enough in and of itself.

Yes, of course the Oscars are silly and frivolous in the face of a deadly virus. And of course, wealthy, beautiful people handing each other gold statues seems gauche in these times. But we find joy where it can be found, and for each of us, that is in a different place. I remember where I was and what I was doing and who I was with for every Academy Awards ceremony I have watched. They are as much a time capsule of my personal history as they are a reflection of the film industry’s days past.

We will start the series in 2004 (the 2003 awards) so that we have an unbroken streak, but let me touch briefly here on the 74th Academy Awards (ceremony date: March 24, 2002) because that is the furthest back my memory of the ceremony goes with any certainty.

I could not tell you exactly why the Academy Awards have ended up meaning so much to me. Movies were always important. I grew up across the street from a video store. We did not have a lot of money, and when you do not have a lot of money, one thing you can still do is rent videos – and rent videos we did. By the handfuls. My dad also bought a lot of the used VHS tapes, and by the time DVD came in and changed home viewing forever (or until Blu-ray and streaming came along), we had amassed quite the collection. So, movies were always around, always a part of life.

Even still, “prestige” films were not necessarily on the menu. My dad was a single father in his late 20s and early 30s for most of this period, and he had grown up in the ‘80s. This meant action films – a steady diet of Seagal (Under Siege, Under Siege 2: Dark Territory, and Out for Justice), Van Damme (Bloodsport, Time Cop, and Sudden Death), and other staples (Road House and Mortal Kombat spin kick to mind).

I loved sports movies as a baseball-obsessed kid and darker kids’ films such as The Addams Family and All Dogs Go to Heaven. I have expounded at length on this site about my early love of horror and will not go into it again here. Some of the traditional stuff was in there, too, such as Spielberg, Disney, and other kiddie comedies. It was eclectic, and I had mostly free reign to watch what I wanted. I did not realize at the time I was receiving an education.

All of that said, sometimes my father would bring home something great. His taste still surprises me and deserves its own post – perhaps once we reach month two of quarantine. I remember Reservoir Dogs and the hard cut to black at the end. I remember Pulp Fiction and trying to title the unnamed chapters. I remember Forrest Gump and Bubba and shrimping. I remember Dazed and Confused and thinking that was what going to high school would be like. I did not understand these as important, praiseworthy works of art. I just knew I loved them.

Fast forward to March 24, 2002. The night of the 74th Academy Awards. I was 13 years old. The only film among the nominees I am absolutely certain I had seen at the time was The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring because I saw it in theaters with a group of friends, and I remember not liking it. I thought it was long and kind of hokey, and being unaware of its literary origins, I was upset it had no ending.

With that context, I remember three distinct things from that ceremony, all at the end and two among the Academy’s most memorable moments ever. In this year, the producers did Best Actress and Best Actor before Best Director, something they probably would not have done in hindsight, given the enormity and historical import of the two acting winners.

First up came Halle Berry. I have spent a lot of time rewatching speeches from old ceremonies, and some are fresher in my mind for that reason, but I will try to go off what I remember in the moment for this series. And, what I remember in the moment about Berry’s speech was the unfiltered emotion of it all. I do not believe I was aware at the time of the history being made, which certainly makes the speech even more of a knockout in retrospect, but I remember being happy for this actress I only kind of knew from The Last Boy Scout in a movie I had not even heard of. (I have seen Monster’s Ball exactly once since.)

Then came Denzel Washington. It seemed a wonderful kismet at play to make it so that Sidney Poitier would receive his lifetime achievement Honorary Academy Award on the same night these two superb black actors would be recognized in the top categories. Washington was even one of the presenters of Poitier’s award. The moment I remember most is when he singled out Poitier during his Best Actor speech. It was a lovely moment, though one wishes it had meant more for the future of people of color in Hollywood in general and at the Oscars specifically.

Finally, Ron Howard and his John Nash biopic A Beautiful Mind were named in the top two categories. I had not seen it. I had not the faintest clue what it was about. All I remember was being happy Richie Cunningham from Happy Days had won an important award. I loved Apollo 13 growing up, but I had not yet put two and two together, so my context for Howard was Happy Days, a favorite show of my father’s and something of a youthful obsession for me.

In 2003, I must have missed the ceremony. Not sure why or what I was doing, but it clearly was not important enough to me at the time to make room for it in my Sunday evening. That would be the last time I felt that way. From 2004 on, the Oscars have been appointment viewing. No matter what was going on in my life, I made sure I was sat down in front of a television set at 5 p.m. on Sunday night for the show (some years it started at 5:30, but I always enjoy the red carpet).

It is my hope this series will serve as a fun distraction in this time of chaos and uncertainty. It is also likely I will be writing about the chaos and uncertainty in other pieces on this site, so I will try to keep these as free of such discussions as possible. Let’s just have a nice time and forget that we are inside because we must be.

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Next time: The 76th Academy Awards, a Lord of the Rings sweep, and memories of Lost in Translation.

On Ken Loach, COVID-19, and quarantine

Sorry We Missed You, directed by Ken Loach

Here we are. I did not have anything planned, and this will probably be as much stream-of-conscious as anything, but I wanted to write, and here we are. We all know there is a pandemic going on, and hopefully you are all safe at home with loved ones around, in spirit if not in person. All this time at home, all this time online, maybe some of that brought you here. If so, welcome, or welcome back, as the case may be. So, here we are.

The writing was on the wall early this month. You could see how it was going to go. But, even with that, my wife – my moviegoing partner through thick and thin, sickness and health – and I still made our trips to the theater. We caught The Invisible Man in (true) IMAX at the Universal City Walk AMC on the first of the month. For a popular movie on an opening weekend Sunday afternoon, the theater was kind of empty.

A few days later, still attempting to maintain our New York City walking ethos, we trekked from home into Hollywood to catch Kelly Reichardt’s wonderful First Cow at the ArcLight Hollywood. It was a beautiful night. Serene. Few cars on the road as we strolled along the uneven Sunset Boulevard sidewalks. Even fewer people at this screening, despite it being a Saturday night. Perhaps folks had yet to catch on to the beauty of Reichardt’s gentle western parable.

Then came Tuesday, March 10. It rained. My wife and I share one car and I prefer to take public transportation to work, but in a downpour, it can be a pain. So, she came to get me after she got off. It is rare that we are on that side of town together, and we thought we would make a night of it. We had yet to visit the Landmark Nuart on Santa Monica. We love the Landmark Theatre chain. Brilliant films in a proper movie theater setting. If you do not know what I mean by that, visit the theater at your local mall (a pair of institutions in parallel decline) and imagine the opposite experience.

The Landmark Nuart is a one-screen theater next to the best video rental store in LA. That week, the feature was Ken Loach’s latest humanist masterwork, Sorry We Missed You. Trailers for excellent-looking films played, and I turned to my wife after every one and said, “We definitely have to see that.” Among them, the preview for Werner Herzog’s new documentary Nomad: In the Footsteps of Bruce Chatwin played. As luck would have it, Herzog was scheduled to appear with the film at the Nuart a month later.

Herzog has always been a dream Q&A for us. We have just missed him twice – once for Lo and Behold: Reveries of a Connected World and once for Into the Inferno, both excellent, both on Netflix, and both highly recommended. Seeing an opportunity, as we walked out of the theater, we went back to the ticket booth and purchased two tickets for the April 10 screening of Nomad. As you probably know, that screening will not be happening. Nor will many of the others we had looked forward to over the coming weeks.

A double bill of Charlie Chaplin’s Gold Rush and City Lights would have been a particular highlight, on the big screen, accompanied by a live piano. I was excited for the release of Eliza Hittman’s much-buzzed-about Never Rarely Sometimes Always. Francis Ford Coppola’s other 1974 masterpiece The Conversation was to return to theaters, and Quentin Dupieux’s mad-seeming horror-comedy Deerskin was to debut. None of that will happen in the current moment, and there is uncertainty over what the future holds.

The theater exhibition business was suffering before this, and I have watched some of my favorite independent theaters close in recent years for no reasons other than monetary. This forced, if sensible, closure will surely kill a few more. That saddens me, and I wonder what the future of moviegoing looks like. But it is a small price to pay to save potentially millions of lives. Or to save thousands of lives. Or, really, to save one life. When we say Cinema Is Life, we mean it is a way of living, not a reason anyone should be dying.

On the first day the theaters reopen, I will be there, but for now, we still have the movies. In the nearly two weeks since my last visit to the cinema – my longest break in years – I have caught up with some old favorites, shared some recent discoveries with a friend, and settled in for the kind of comfort watching we could all use right about now.

If you feel like watching something great, watch something great. If you feel like watching a romcom, watch a romcom. If you feel like watching a great romcom, watch When Harry Met Sally …, which is how we spent a rainy Sunday afternoon. Whatever brings you comfort in a time like this, there is no wrong answer.

I did not know Sorry We Missed You would be the last movie I would see in theaters for the foreseeable future, but I cherished the experience as I cherish every visit to the cinema. It is about a man who gets sucked into the never-ending spiral of futility that is the modern economy for so many working people. All he wants is to give his family a better life, but paradoxically, in trying to do so, he destroys his family. Like so many of Loach’s best films, it lays bare the hypocrisies that underlie our societal structure and the false promise of upward mobility.

It is a dark, tragic story, but if there must be a hopeful lesson to take away, it is this: The things that matter most to us will have no value to the outside world, to the economy, to the culture. These are our loved ones, our private joys and secret passions, our personal triumphs and small miracles. The machine will grind us down if we let it, but it cannot grind to dust that which we hold closest to our hearts.

So, stay home. Be safe. Trust science. Believe doctors. Treasure what matters most. We all get through this together or none of us gets through it. And, whatever the world looks like on the other end of this tunnel, I’ll be at the movies. I hope to see you there. We can share a popcorn.

It’s so metaphorical! Parasite wins Best Picture, Bong Joon-ho named Best Director

This is the happiest I have ever been to be so wrong in my predictions. Parasite, a South Korean thriller about class warfare, is the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences Best Picture of 2019. With no shame, I tell you I jumped out of my seat. I cheered from the couch in my living room, a mere 2.5 miles down the road from where the big night was taking place. There is shock, confusion, elation, and appreciation, all running through my mind at once in celebration of the Best Picture of the year and one of the best Best Picture winners in history.

Bong Joon-ho’s masterpiece took home four awards, including Best Original Screenplay, Best International Feature, and Best Director for the man of the hour. Some films are undeniable. The stats and precursors and every bit of intuition in the world said 1917, a wonderful war picture that would have been a handsome if unadventurous winner. But some films are undeniable. 12 Years a Slave was undeniable. Moonlight was undeniable. Parasite is undeniable.

The show began with a lovely opening number by Janelle Monáe, who came out dressed as Mr. Rogers (with Tom Hanks seated in the front row, no less) and invited the Academy and all of us at home to be her neighbor. Then she blew the roof off the Dolby Theatre (located on Hollywood and Highland, as the broadcast reminded us several times, cross streets that meant nothing to me before I moved here a year ago). It was a fun, high-energy start to a show that nominally had no host.

Steve Martin and Chris Rock, both former Oscar hosts, came out to deliver the traditional opening “monologue” (yeah, I know, two people is a dialogue). They got in a few good jokes, but the timing was creaky, and as much as I love Martin, one wonders why Rock could not have handled the task himself. Rock’s barbs at the industry’s ongoing problems with race were pointed and hilarious. It set a tone that left little place for older white male Martin. But, like that, they were gone, and it was on to the awards.

Brad Pitt won the first Oscar of the night and seemed genuinely overwhelmed at the recognition and support of his peers. All of the acting awards went as planned, with Pitt and Laura Dern winning the respective supporting categories and Renée Zelwegger and Joaquin Phoenix taking the lead awards. Phoenix’s speech was heartfelt, sincere and progressive before he ended with a touching tribute to his late brother, River. The best part of Dern’s win was her mom, Hollywood legend Dianne Ladd, tearing up throughout the entire speech.

The award for best speech of the night, however, goes to Joker composer Hildur Guðanóttir, whose joy and gratitude were evident and who made a powerful appeal to her fellow female composers to make themselves heard. Guðanóttir is the first woman in Academy history to win the award for Best Original Score, and of course, it is about time.

I would say two of the five Original Song nominee performances were truly lovely, and the others just fine. Double nominee Cynthia Erivo’s performance of “Stand Up” was a powerful moment in the room, and there was something moving about seeing Elsas from around the world perform “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II alongside Idina Menzel. We probably could have done without multiple references to the infamous John Travolta “Adele Dazeem” gaffe, but low-hanging fruit is always likely to be picked.

Billy Eilish’s rendition of “Yesterday” for the In Memoriam segment was understated and respectful, while the other major musical performance we got was the most baffling moment of the night. I would put Eminem’s “Lose Yourself” performance this year alongside the Sound of Music medley from a few years back among the most unmotivated and completely dispensable Oscar moments ever. All I can think is the Academy was attempting to right the wrong of Eminem not performing his Oscar-winning song on the broadcast the year he won the award. So, on this, the 17th anniversary of that win, he got the stage. He was okay, but when people complain about the length of the Oscars, it is stuff like this that is so indefensible.

Of course, I was bummed at the Best Adapted Screenplay win for Jojo Rabbit, though it is difficult to begrudge an award to Taika Waititi, who seems like a lovely person. But the near-shutout for Little Women, which won only Costume Design, stings. I take solace in the knowledge that somewhere down the line, Greta Gerwig will direct a film that is, as we are saying, undeniable, and it will sweep everything. I look forward to that day.

Speaking of shutouts, The Irishman went 0-for-10, joining only five other films to match or surpass that goose egg, including Martin Scorsese’s own Gangs of New York. In a particularly cruel irony, one of the awards Gangs of New York was supposed to be a lock for was Best Original Song, “The Hands That Built America” by U2. That song lost to – you guessed it – “Lose Yourself.”

But while Scorsese’s film won nothing, the winners’ speeches were not short on love and admiration for the legendary auteur, who seemed humbled and appreciative of all the recognition. That included Best Director Bong, who shouted out Scorsese as a major inspiration. Bong also made special mention of Quentin Tarantino, who has long been a champion of the Korean director’s work.

I imagine the show ran a little long for some of the more casual viewers, but when Spike Lee read out Bong Joon-ho’s name for Best Director in lull in the telecast was immediately erased by a fresh wave of optimism and enthusiasm. Though the film won Best Original Screenplay, it was passed over in Editing and Production Design, so it looked like Parasite might be relegated to Best International Feature. Then Best Director happened and anything seemed possible. But until Jane Fonda read out the top award, pausing for effect like the pro she is, it didn’t seem real.

I have been watching the Oscars telecast with serious interest for 19 years, and I can count on one hand the number of moments of pure bliss the show has delivered me. Phillip Seymour Hoffman winning Best Actor in 2005. The two-shot of Lupita Nyong’o as Best Supporting Actress and 12 Years a Slave as Best Picture in 2013. Olivia Colman for Best Actress last year. And now, the Parasite sweep of 2019.

There is more to say, more to write, and we will probably go over all of it, the larger context, what this means for the future of the Academy, etc., but for now, I will enjoy my sparkling wine and toast to Parasite, the best picture of the year.

Totally Accurate, 100 Percent Guaranteed 2019 Academy Awards Predictions*

We have not made these predictions in a few years, but it feels like time to get back to it. It has been a great year for films, and it has been a joy to write about these Academy Award nominations. If you are interested in checking out the full breakdown of each of these categories, click on any of the links below and read too many words about all of the nominees.

Countdown to the Oscars: What You Can See (Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Costumes, Visual Effects, Makeup and Hairstyling)

Countdown to the Oscars: What You Can Hear (Original Score, Original Song, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing)

Countdown to the Oscars: Documentary, Animation, International, and Shorts (Documentary Feature, Documentary Short, Animated Feature, Animated Short, International Feature, Live Action Short)

Countdown to the Oscars: Actors (Lead Actor, Lead Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress)

Countdown to the Oscars: Directors and Writers (Directors, Original Screenplay, Adapted Screenplay)

Countdown to the Oscars: Best Picture

*I make this guarantee every time, and I stand by it, but don’t ask me about it.

Picture

Will win: 1917

Should win: Parasite

Director

Will win: Sam Mendes for 1917

Should win: Bong Joon-ho for Parasite

Actor in a Leading Role

Will win: Joaquin Phoenix for Joker

Should win: Antonio Banderas for Pain and Glory

Actress in a Leading Role

Will win: Renee Zelwegger for Judy

Should win: Scarlett Johansson for Marriage Story

Actor in a Supporting Role

Will win: Brad Pitt for Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood

Should win: Brad Pitt for Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood

Actress in a Supporting Role

Will win: Laura Dern for Marriage Story

Should win: Florence Pugh for Little Women

Original Screenplay

Will win: Parasite

Should win: Parasite

Adapted Screenplay

Will win: Jojo Rabbit

Should win: Little Women

Cinematography

Will win: 1917

Should win: 1917

Editing

Will win: Ford V. Ferrari

Should win: Parasite

Production Design

Will win: 1917

Should win: Parasite

Costume Design

Will win: Little Women

Should win: Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood

Makeup and Hairstyling

Will win: Bombshell

Should win: Bombshell

Visual Effects

Will win: The Lion King

Should win: The Irishman

Original Score

Will win: Joker

Should win: 1917

Original Song

Will win: “I’m Gonna Love Me Again” from Rocketman

Should win: “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4

Sound Editing

Will win: 1917

Should win: 1917

Sound Mixing

Will win: 1917

Should win: Ford V. Ferrari

Documentary Feature

Will win: American Factory

Should win: Honeyland

International Feature

Will win: Parasite

Should win: Parasite

Animated Feature

Will win: Toy Story 4

Should win: I Lost My Body

Documentary Short

Will win: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl)

Should win: In the Absence

Live Action Short

Will win: The Neighbor’s Window

Should win: Saria

Animated Short

Will win: Hair Love

Should win: Mémorable

Enjoy the show!

Countdown to the Oscars: Best Picture

Welcome to the Last Cinema Standing Countdown to the Oscars for the 2019 movie season! Throughout this series, we will break down all 24 categories with predictions and hopes for the big night. The series concludes with the nine nominees for Best Picture.

This is the big one, the reason we are all here. This is Best Picture at the Academy Awards. There was much furor over the perfectly fine if bland choice of Green Book last year over Alfonso Cuaron’s masterwork, Roma. Keep in mind, however, there is that kind of upset every year. Every film nominated for Best Picture has passionate supporters – that is how you end up with a Best Picture nomination in the first place – and no matter what wins, someone is upset. You have to go back to 2007 and No Country for Old Men to find a winner that was nearly universally agreed upon, and even then, There Will Be Blood fans wondered where the Paul Thomas Anderson love was.

Some great films are nominated in the Academy’s top category this year. One of them will win Best Picture. Eight others will not. The announcement of a winner does not magically erase the others from existence. All of this is to say: Try not to get too worked up about it. I love this stuff. I genuinely jump for joy win films and people I respect win Academy Awards. When they do not win, it is upsetting, but then I go back and watch films I love and remember why I love them in the first place. It is not because they may win Oscars but because they are great works of art.

These are the nine films nominated for Best Picture of 2019 at the Academy Awards this year, in order of likelihood to win (from least likely to most):

Ford V. Ferrari, directed by James Mangold

I hate using the term “muscular” because it has become so gendered when talking about filmmaking. But we are talking about big, beefy engines, fast cars, and loud noises. I don’t care what gender you are. This is muscular filmmaking. Ford V. Ferrari is the kind of movie the Academy usually eats up. It is a classic tale of American exceptionalism that finds within that structure a critique of the capitalist system. It is about a couple Davids working for Goliath, trying to take down another Goliath. In the end, only the Goliaths win.

Mangold’s direction is tight, precise, and propulsive, Christian Bale and Matt Damon are excellent in the leading roles, and the film is a visual splendor. That said, with no directing nomination, no acting nominations, and no writing nomination, the love for this film appears to stop at its considerable crafts. It will not get many No. 1 votes among these nominees, and the prize will have to be the nomination.

Marriage Story, directed by Noah Baumbach

Despite what you may have heard, Marriage Story is much more than Kramer vs. Kramer 2.0. Baumbach’s film a fairer, more considered work than that earlier film to which it is so often compared. For those who cannot see both sides of this story, it says more about them than it does the film. Baumbach balances his audience’s loyalties and sympathies in a way you rarely see on screen. Marriage Story is evidence of a filmmaker working at the height of his considerable powers as both a writer and director.

It helps that at the center of film are two remarkable leading performances. Scarlett Johansson and Adam Driver. They battle and rage and scratch and claw and never given an inch, either as performers or characters. The beauty of the film lies in the way both characters come to realize they have entered a war that cannot be won. It may ultimately be too raw and too close to the bone for voters. It is a hard film to love, but it is worth the effort if you have the patience to meet the film on its level.

The Irishman, directed by Martin Scorsese

It feels impossible that Scorsese could return with another masterpiece and the world could simply shrug at it. As of now, I am predicting The Irishman to win precisely zero of its 10 nominations. That is a feat matched or exceeded by only five other films in history, including Scorsese’s own Gangs of New York in 2002, which similarly went 0-for-10. The list also features American Hustle (10), True Grit (10), The Turning Point (11), and The Color Purple (11). I do not think it is controversial to suggest The Irishman is the blue ribbon of that group.

I wonder how much of this is the Netflix effect. Not simply the Academy’s and the industry’s at large aversion to the growing power of the streaming platform. If anybody could move voters beyond that prejudice, surely Scorsese could. Rather, Netflix’s model, for both its film and television originals, seems to be a major release with much press and hullabaloo. The new piece, say The Irishman or Marriage Story, dominates the cultural conversation for a week or two, then disappears, lost in the sea of content. I cannot imagine a world in which a master director releases a perfect film and it simply disappears into the ether, but here we stand.

Little Women, directed by Greta Gerwig

There is little that irk me more than sight-unseen prejudice. The conversation around the release of Little Women was that men would not see it, that men, in fact, were refusing to see it based on some misguided and phony masculine code. Yet, it is here. It is among the nominees for Best Picture in a male dominated Academy. So, clearly, some men crossed the picket line and saw it. For doing so, they were rewarded with a masterful piece of storytelling in which everything old is new again. Little Women is a rebuke to the very men who would refuse to see it.

Little Women is also a major work from one of the best new directors on the scene. With Lady Bird and now this, Gerwig has proven that she is in this game to play, and not only is she playing – she is winning. Her post-modern take on the March girls saga is the perfect movie of the moment, striking at the very core of what drives conversations around art and the artist. It is a film in conversation with itself and the world at large, daring viewers to judge it, to misinterpret it, and to miss the point. It is challenging, daring, and brilliant, so of course, it will not win. But just wait until Gerwig gets back here again.

Joker, directed by Todd Phillips

The preferential ballot used to determine Best Picture rewards consensus. A controversial, love-it-or-hate-it work is unlikely to win under this kind of system. It does not come much more controversial than Joker when it comes to the Academy’s top award. Many voters will put it down as the No. 1 film of the year. Many others will place it last on their ballots or leave it off entirely. This is not a film that can build consensus, yet its ceremony-high 11 nominations suggest it has strong support across the board.

The critical and industry divide on Joker has been fascinating to watch ever since it won the Golden Lion at the Venice Film Festival. Somehow, winning a major award put a target on Joker’s back. Its worst sin is that it is derivative of early Martin Scorsese, though the homage fits the tone of the piece. From what I can tell, people want to find nothing in the film. People who want to hate will find it empty, though admittedly, some who love are seeing too much. The truth is the film’s existence is something of a miracle, a billion-dollar-grossing comic book film that takes an infamous character and puts a new spin on it. Kudos to Phillips for trying something and succeeding.

Jojo Rabbit, directed by Taika Waititi

This is my least favorite among the nominees. I just want to be upfront about that before I discuss the film’s chances to win Best Picture. Part of me wonders if Waititi just is not my bag. Though I loved Hunt for the Wilderpeople, I could not get on board for any of What We Do in The Shadows, Thor: Ragnarok, Flight of the Conchords, or Jojo Rabbit. While some of the humor works for me, what I found most distressing about Jojo Rabbit were its attempts at sincerity.

Jojo Rabbit wants to be about something important – it is even billed as an “Anit-Hate Satire,” just in case you didn’t get the joke – but it also wants to make you laugh at the antics of an imaginary Hitler. The tonal shifts do not work. The film works for others, and I am happy for them. I will not be happy if this film wins Best Picture, which is a viable outcome for a middlebrow crowd-pleaser that has Life Is Beautiful DNA. Few would call it their favorite film, but few will say they outright dislike, which could be important on a preferential ballot.

Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood, directed by Quentin Tarantino

Tarantino shot his shot with this film. I think it is his second-best work after Inglourious Basterds. He says he will retire after his 10th film – this is No. 9 – and it is hard to imagine him producing another work of such profound beauty and introspection. As ever, this Tarantino movie loves movies, and it loves people who make movies, which would be Academy members. If there were ever going to be a fastball down the middle of the plate for Oscar voters, this would be it. And yet, it has gained little traction.

Brad Pitt will win Supporting Actor, Tarantino could win his third Original Screenplay award, and the film is in the mix in a couple below-the-line categories, but the momentum does not seem to exist for the top prize. Like Inglourious Basterds, which came in the year of Avatar vs. The Hurt Locker, Once Upon a Time seems to be running third behind the two Best Picture favorites. Maybe it ends up second on enough ballots and surprises everyone, but it does not seem to be in the cards. Maybe Tarantino will never get there. Hitchcock never did. Nor did Kubrick. Welles couldn’t even get back to the show. If Tarantino does retire and join this group, hey, there is worse company in which to find yourself.

Parasite, directed by Bong Joon-ho

The best film of the year does not always get this close to the top prize. In the 16 or 17 years I have been following the Oscars closely, my favorite film of the year has won the top award three times, and I freely admit that many people disagree with me about those selections. There is not much disagreement that Parasite is the best film of the year. It won the Palme d’Or at Cannes, becoming the first Korean film to do so. It won numerous critical accolades and has broken down barriers across the board for Korean films specifically and foreign language films in general.

There is no one in the industry who does not like this director, this cast, or this film. At industry function after industry function, the enthusiasm and applause for this film and these filmmakers has been off the charts. Bong has been one of the most popular individuals in the room at every party he attends. Parasite is universal. The love is out there. The question is: Will that love translate into votes? The short answer is yes, but will there be enough? We will find out.

1917, directed by Sam Mendes

It is no longer cool to admit you still like American Beauty. There is the Kevin Spacey aspect, the general whiteness of the film, its handling of gay characters, and its generally icky plot about a middle-aged man lusting after a teenage girl. The film has not changed. The culture has. In many ways, I understand. But the fractured take on suburban malaise had not become a cliché at this point. American Beauty is primarily responsible for the wave of imitators that followed. That was 20 years ago when Mendes’ first feature film won Best Picture. Now, he is on the verge of another triumph.

1917 has won all the right awards that would suggest a Best Picture win. It won the Golden Globes, it won the Producers Guild, it won the Directors Guild, and it won all those BAFTAs. There is only one empty spot in the trophy case. 1917 is a strange goliath because it is such a well-made film. It truly is an impressive piece of filmmaking and storytelling. I do not want to root against this film. I really enjoyed it. The crafts are impeccable, the performances are lovely, and the climax is among the most stirring I have seen in a cinema in recent years.

The problem is that Parasite is an unimpeachable masterwork. Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood is stunning. Little Women and The Irishman are brilliant. You want something transcendent to beat that group. 1917 is tremendous, but transcendence is elusive. All signs point to 1917, but it is hard to be excited about that outcome. Of course, the last time I felt this certain about a Best Picture winner was La La Land. Then, Moonlight happened. So, you never know.

Will win: 1917

Should win: Parasite

Should have been here: Midsommar