The Best of the 2010s: Top 20 Moments

You never know what will stick with you when you see a film. Sometimes, you think you know what you will take away, but then something else catches you by surprise and never leaves you. It could be a performance, a stunt, a joke, or maybe just a look, but when you see it, you know it. You feel it. Like the perfect line in a great song, it comes to define an experience. These moments can be painful or joyous or both, but no matter what they are, they are the experiences that make moviegoing so wonderful.

By their very nature, these moments are personal. Your 20 favorite film memories from the decade will be different from mine, and that is okay. That is great, in fact. I hope you share with me some of yours and allow me to share with you some of mine, the 20 moments from the 2010s that will stay with me forever.

20. The villagers are crucified – from Silence, directed by Martin Scorsese

Scorsese’s true magnum opus of the decade – his ultimate statement on the themes he has explored his entire career – is Silence, about a Jesuit missionary (Andrew Garfield) who sees himself in Christ’s image. In this extended crucifixion sequence, he is confronted with the reality of that image, and the emptiness of his words in the face of true suffering. He prays the villagers remember what Christ went through, but he watches as their torture continues for days and no amount of prayer will make it stop. When one villager sings a hymn as he dies, he is left to do so alone on the cross, and we are witnessing not some glorious martyrdom but a senseless death.

19. Jordan Belfort has lunch with Mark Hanna – from The Wolf of Wall Street, directed by Martin Scorsese

Matthew McConaughey won his Oscar in this year for Dallas Buyers Club, beating out scene partner Leonardo DiCaprio for the prize. Many saw that as the culmination of the McConaissance, but I actually think peak McConaughey is right here, sipping martinis and beating a drum on his chest. Mark Hanna is the macho ‘80s stereotype Jordan Belfort has modeled himself after, and he lays out the entire scam of the machine. As long as he is getting paid, getting drunk, and getting off, nothing else matters. We are watching a snake oil salesman explain his craft, and in so doing, we see why it works. Jordan is hooked, and so are we.

18. W’Kabi kneels to Okoye on the battlefield – from Black Panther, directed by Ryan Coogler

Apart from Michael B. Jordan’s Killmonger, the most memorable character in Black Panther is Okoye, played by Danai Gurira. She is a fierce warrior, loyal to her nation, and torn between honor and duty. Her arc reaches its glorious climax when she must face down her love, W’Kabi (Daniel Kaluuya), on the battlefield. When she chooses Wakanda over him, he realizes that this civil war is destroying them and their people, and he knees to her. In this moment, Coogler is paying tribute to the power and resilience of black women while also condemning the kind of internecine conflicts that distract from pursuing meaningful change.

17. Captain Phillips receives a medical evaluation – from Captain Phillips, directed by Paul Greengrass

Greengrass is an expert at crafting tense thrill rides that never let up for a moment. See United 93 and his Bourne films for further evidence. These movies, Captain Phillips included, so rarely afford the viewer a chance to breathe. This is their defining quality. So, when Captain Richard Phillips’ (Tom Hanks) ordeal is over and he is given a second to reflect, the audience is taken aback. We are shocked by his vulnerability, his pain, his sadness, and ultimately, his relief. The steely, resolute man who had been so strong throughout all of this finally breaks down, and we see the real person underneath, the person who could be any of us in both courage and fear.

16. “The incident” goes down – from I, Tonya, directed by Craig Gillespie

“This is what you all came to see!” Tonya Harding (Margot Robbie) snarls, and we are indicted. Gillespie pieces together the maiming of Nancy Kerrigan with precision and skill, expertly building up tension until the moment the knee buckles. It all works brilliantly, but it is undeniably voyeuristic. What in us compels us to watch this? Why do we need to see poor Nancy beaten and broken? What the hell is wrong with us? By asking these questions, the film is already miles ahead of us in the audience. Tonya is right. This is what we wanted, and that says more about us than it does about Tonya Harding.

15. The band records “Please, Mr. Kennedy” – from Inside Llewyn Davis, directed by Joel and Ethan Coen

This is when it all goes wrong for Llewyn (Oscar Isaac). Yes, the song is uproariously funny, and performers Isaac, Justin Timberlake, and Adam Driver commit to its goofiness. Driver’s deepthroated “uh-oh,” Timberlake’s guileless enthusiasm, and Isaac’s weary skepticism come together in a hilarious sequence that displays the absurdity of the business they have all chosen. When the gut punch comes at the end, no one knows that is what it is until much later, but when we do, the irony is almost unbearable. This is every bad decision Llewyn has made coming back to bite him, the greatest near-miss of his life, and it is all his own damn fault.

14. Eliza and the Amphibian Man dance – from The Shape of Water, directed by Guillermo del Toro

Bear with me a moment. I liked La La Land fine. It had some lovely sequences, including the dance in the observatory among the stars, featuring two of the most attractive movie stars on the planet. This ain’t that. This is a deaf-mute woman (Sally Hawkins) and an Amphibian Man (Doug Jones) re-enacting their version of a Fred Astaire and Ginger Rogers dance number. In making these his heroes, del Toro crafts a tribute to all those outsiders and weirdos, himself among them, who may never defy gravity like some of the pretty people but who dream of a transcendence made in their own image.

13. A woman cries in the rain – from Foxtrot, directed by Samuel Maoz

Rutger Hauer, who died in 2019, is responsible for delivering into the lexicon the line “tears in rain.” The very idea is arresting, so simple but so powerful, and demonstrated so movingly here by Maoz. At an army checkpoint, Israeli soldiers get their kicks harassing the Palestinians trying to get through, trying only to live their lives. The cruelty is the point. When a well-dressed man and woman arrive, apparently on their way to a function, they are forced into the pouring rain, humiliated for no reason other than being who they are. She fights back tears, but they fall anyway, and in the deluge, we feel a world weeping for this pain but doing nothing to stop it.

12. Juan teaches Little how to swim – from Moonlight, directed by Barry Jenkins

For two brief, fleeting minutes, the weight of the world is lifted from Little’s (Alex R. Hibbert) shoulders and he is weightless. The film’s defining image is that of Juan (Mahershala Ali) cradling Little’s head as he helps him to float in the ocean. Though waves crash down around them and on them, Juan assures Little he will not let go, and Little is supported. He is held. He is lifted up for perhaps the first time in his life. Things will not be this good, this free, again for a long time, and as Jenkins’ final shot shows us, Chiron will have spent his whole life trying to rediscover what he felt at this moment.

11. Patsey is flogged – from 12 Years a Slave, directed by Steve McQueen

Filled with sequences of unhinged brutality and dreadful torture, McQueen’s masterpiece reaches its moment of greatest horror when Solomon (Chiwetel Ejiofor) is forced to whip Patsey (Lupita Nyong’o) by Epps (Michael Fassbender). Patsey’s cries are what we remember as the blood and flesh spray from her back, but it is not only the pain of slavery we are witnessing but also the impotence and cowardice of those who uphold its virtues. They are weak, hateful, and malevolent, driven by a need to destroy what they see as strength in others. Patsey cannot demand to be clean. Solomon cannot demand mercy. Demands require power, and as McQueen demonstrates, they have none.

10. Aron Ralston cuts himself loose – from 127 Hours, directed by Danny Boyle

Not since the reverse vibraphone at the end of Taxi Driver has a musical sting stuck with me so long and so vividly as the moment Aron Ralston first hits the nerves in his arm. The entire sequence is a transcendent blend of Boyle’s high-octane editing style, A.R. Rahman’s propulsive score, and James Franco’s understated performance. The stakes are life and death, and we feel every second tick by as Aron battles for his future. Of course, it is a difficult sit and not for the squeamish, but the payoff is so magnificently played by all involved that I could watch it over and over again.

9. The raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound – from Zero Dark Thirty, directed by Kathryn Bigelow

Bigelow’s Oscar-winning epic was controversial when it debuted and has only grown more so over the years. The filmmaker likely inflated the role of prisoner torture in finding and killing Osama bin Laden, and that inflation has had real-world consequences. That is the film’s first two hours. Its final half-hour, however, is a tense, moody, boots-on-the-ground depiction of the raid on bin Laden’s compound. The precision and competence of the Navy SEALs is impressive and exciting to watch, but we are always ill at ease as we realize just how easy it is to kill a man, and we grapple with just what that death means.

8. The Edmund Pettis Bridge sequence – from Selma, directed by Ava DuVernay

We go here from the cold calculation of Kathryn Bigelow’s Navy SEALs to the unsettling chaos of an attack on civil rights marchers in the south. What guts and brilliance from DuVernay to stick a miniature war film right in the middle of her historical drama. The first march on Selma is a masterclass in putting the viewer in the middle of a battle, demonstrating the brutality of the racist forces of oppression without exaggeration or embellishment. DuVernay puts the camera on the ground and makes the audience a part of the struggle, ensuring each blow of a billy club is felt and each drop of blood is remembered.

7. Moana sings “How Far I’ll Go” – from Moana, directed by Ron Clements and John Musker

“How Far I’ll Go” is the movie song of the decade. I will hear no other arguments. There were bigger hits (“Let It Go,” “Happy,” “Skyfall”) and songs more integral to their films (“Feels Like Summer,” “Everything Is Awesome”), but there was no other song in the 2010s that demonstrated so succinctly the greatness of the film in which it appears. Auli’i Cravalho’s performance of Lin-Manuel Miranda’s glorious show-stopper is evidenced of what family films can do at their best. It lifts the spirit and empowers the soul, urging all listeners, young and old, of any race or class, to wonder … well, you know.

6. Lancaster Dodd interrogates Freddie Quell – from The Master, directed by Paul Thomas Anderson

I wrote previously in this series of the performances by Philip Seymour Hoffman as Lancaster Dodd and Joaquin Phoenix as Freddie Quell. I called them the two best performances of the decade. This scene contains within it all the proof I could ever need. What starts almost as an acting class exercise in repetition becomes something else entirely as the Master tries to break through to this seemingly unknowable beast before him. In so doing, they form a bond that is unlike any we have seen in cinema before. It is deep, it is troubling, and it is fascinating. These are two performers absolutely demanding each other’s and our attention, and they are getting it.

5. Jeannine sees her portrait on her home – from Faces Places, directed by Agnès Varda and J.R.

Varda died near the start of 2019 at the age of 90. Right up to the end, she continued making tremendous works of art, filled with the kind of empathy for which she was so rightly celebrated. The penultimate work of her career, Faces Places, is empathy writ large, literally, as she and co-director J.R. go around the countryside putting up giant portraits of the people they meet. It is the first portrait, however, that sticks in mind the longest, the lone woman in an abandoned neighborhood, Jeannine. She is a quiet revolutionary, battling back against a world that would just as soon forget her. Varda and J.R. ensure that will not happen.

4. The history of the universe sequence – from The Tree of Life, directed by Terrence Malick

Even at its most direct, The Tree of Life is an impressionistic collage of memories and free-floating ideas. Then, for one glorious sequence, Malick goes full-on expressionist, showing us the violent, fiery, yet ultimately empty history of the universe from moment one. It is gorgeously shot and exquisitely executed, but it is not just aimless wandering through the galaxy. It is a history of life, which is itself a history of cruelty. Malick takes us beyond our little lives and the lives of his characters, and their petty grievances, to show us just how small we are and just how much of what we are has been there from the beginning.

3. Jack Mulligan gets a ride home – from Widows, directed by Steve McQueen

The single take has been around for years but really exploded this decade with directors like Alfonso Cuarón and Alejandro G. Iñárritu, along with cinematographer Emmanuel Lubezki, essentially making it their calling card. But the best single take of the 2010s was also the most subtle, with McQueen telling the entire tale of inequity and corruption in Chicago during a single car ride home. As the camera slowly pans across the hood of the car, we see wealth and poor side by side, a juxtaposition that helps us understand just how far apart the rich and the poor truly are.

2. Sharon Tate goes to the movies – from Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood, directed by Quentin Tarantino

I had never cried during a Tarantino movie. Never really even felt teary. That is not the wavelength on which his films operate. But when Sharon Tate (Margot Robbie), whose fate we know so well, goes to the theater to see one of her own movies, that’s when the director finally got me misty-eyed. All of Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood feels like an elegy to a time long since passed. Tate has become emblematic of that – her murder for many symbolizing the end of the ‘60s dream. Her joy in seeing herself on screen reverses this, turning her from a symbol back into the living, breathing, joyous human being she was. If only for a moment.

1. Frances runs through the city – from Frances Ha, directed by Noah Baumbach

When the beat kicks in, all you can do is dance. Greta Gerwig’s Frances Hawthorne is a dancer, anyway, and so she must do more. She runs. As David Bowie’s “Modern Love” blares on the soundtrack, she runs. As New York City goes about its day, she runs. Her sprint down the sidewalks of the city is boundless, inexhaustible, unfettered joy, exploding out in every direction at once. She spins and leaps and, yes, dances through the streets with the exuberance of youth and the seeming knowledge that maybe it will not last forever, but it surely exists right here and right now. So, let’s dance.

___

Check back again as we wrap up the Best of the Decade project with some fun ephemera and the Top 20 Films of the 2010s.

#IndustrySoWhite: On Hollywood, diversity, and the Oscars

Sal's Famous Pizzeria burns in writer-director Spike Lee's masterpiece Do the Right Thing.

Ordinarily, I would not jump into the fray on an issue such as this. People a lot smarter than I and better attuned to the discussion have written about the now infamous #OscarsSoWhite hashtag and its many implications. It just seems for an issue this important, though, that more discussion is always better than less. The more we talk about race, identity, diversity, and equality, the better we can understand these topics and address problems, while the people who shut their eyes and cover their ears will be left behind.

Most of you know the facts: In the last two years, not one black, Asian, or Hispanic actor has been nominated for an Academy Award. That covers 40 nominations, and all of them have gone to white actors. I would argue history shows the Best Director category is even worse for black filmmakers. The last three Best Director winners have been either Hispanic (Alfonso Caurón for Gravity and Alejandro González Iñárritu for Birdman) or Asian (Ang Lee for Life of Pi), which equals the number of black directors ever nominated for an Oscar for directing.

Now, we can sit and discuss merit all day – nominations are subjective; there are only five slots per category; etc., etc. – but that misses the point. Spike Lee, a recent honorary Oscar winner who somehow has never been nominated for Best Director, shined a light on the real issue this week in announcing his boycott of this year’s Academy Awards ceremony. He said:

“As I See It, The Academy Awards Is Not Where The ‘Real’ Battle Is. It's In The Executive Office Of The Hollywood Studios And TV And Cable Networks. This Is Where The Gate Keepers Decide What Gets Made And What Gets Jettisoned To ‘Turnaround’ Or Scrap Heap. This Is What's Important. The Gate Keepers. Those With ‘The Green Light’ Vote. As The Great Actor Leslie Odom Jr. Sings And Dances In The Game Changing Broadway Musical HAMILTON, ‘I WANNA BE IN THE ROOM WHERE IT HAPPENS’. People, The Truth Is We Ain't In Those Rooms And Until Minorities Are, The Oscar Nominees Will Remain Lilly White.”

The statement echoed the sentiment Lee expressed in his honorary Oscar acceptance speech, and he is right. The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences is about 6,000 people. Its president, Cheryl Boone Isaacs, has made great strides in the last couple years to open the doors to a more diverse and inclusive membership, and she has announced initiatives to do even more toward those ends. Lee and others have applauded her efforts, but it is an uphill battle.

Writer-director Ryan Coogler on the set of Creed.

When it comes to diversity in Hollywood, the Academy is not the disease but a symptom. As Lee identified, the disease exists in the board rooms and executive offices of the studios. These are the places where movies with all-white casts and all-white filmmakers are greenlit and where “black movies” are represented by an incredibly narrow and stereotyped view of the world. The Academy can only choose from films that get made, and if studios do not want to make movies with black actors and filmmakers, well, the choice is already made.

However, the Academy is not blameless. When presented with great films, no matter who made them or stars in them, it is incumbent upon the Academy to recognize that greatness. Last year, Selma was unjustly ignored by the Academy everywhere but in Best Picture and Best Original Song. It is objectively wrong that Ava DuVernay was not nominated for Best Director and David Oyelowo was left out of Best Actor. Merit may be subjective, but there is no legitimate argument to be made against Selma.

This year, there were perhaps no snubs as egregious as those, but the Academy still willfully ignored the best young filmmaker in the game (Ryan Coogler and his excellent Creed) and two of the most interesting performances of the year (Abraham Attah and Idris Elba in Beasts of No Nation). At the same time, a token nomination here or there is not going to change the culture. The problem is systemic, and it is the system that must be broken down and built again.

The studios must change, and the Academy must change because the audience has damn sure changed. In Lee’s independent masterpiece Do the Right Thing, they burned Sal’s Famous Pizzeria to the ground because he refused to put any black people on the wall of fame, despite his almost exclusively black clientele. The studios could learn a thing or two from that scenario if they bothered to pay attention – but then again, they didn’t make that movie, and they still don’t make movies like that. Some folks never learn, but they need to, and they need to pay attention to the lessons the audience is teaching.

#OscarsSoWhite... Again. I Would Like To Thank President Cheryl Boone Isaacs And The Board Of Governors Of The Academy Of Motion Pictures Arts And Sciences For Awarding Me an Honorary Oscar This Past November. I Am Most Appreciative. However My Wife, Mrs. Tonya Lewis Lee And I Will Not Be Attending The Oscar Ceremony This Coming February. We Cannot Support It And Mean No Disrespect To My Friends, Host Chris Rock and Producer Reggie Hudlin, President Isaacs And The Academy. But, How Is It Possible For The 2nd Consecutive Year All 20 Contenders Under The Actor Category Are White? And Let's Not Even Get Into The Other Branches. 40 White Actors In 2 Years And No Flava At All. We Can't Act?! WTF!! It's No Coincidence I'm Writing This As We Celebrate The 30th Anniversary Of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr's Birthday. Dr. King Said "There Comes A Time When One Must Take A Position That Is Neither Safe, Nor Politic, Nor Popular But He Must Take It Because Conscience Tells Him It's Right". For Too Many Years When The Oscars Nominations Are Revealed, My Office Phone Rings Off The Hook With The Media Asking Me My Opinion About The Lack Of African-Americans And This Year Was No Different. For Once, (Maybe) I Would Like The Media To Ask All The White Nominees And Studio Heads How They Feel About Another All White Ballot. If Someone Has Addressed This And I Missed It Then I Stand Mistaken. As I See It, The Academy Awards Is Not Where The "Real" Battle Is. It's In The Executive Office Of The Hollywood Studios And TV And Cable Networks. This Is Where The Gate Keepers Decide What Gets Made And What Gets Jettisoned To "Turnaround" Or Scrap Heap. This Is What's Important. The Gate Keepers. Those With "The Green Light" Vote. As The Great Actor Leslie Odom Jr. Sings And Dances In The Game Changing Broadway Musical HAMILTON, "I WANNA BE IN THE ROOM WHERE IT HAPPENS". People, The Truth Is We Ain't In Those Rooms And Until Minorities Are, The Oscar Nominees Will Remain Lilly White. (Cont'd)

A photo posted by Spike Lee (@officialspikelee) on Jan 18, 2016 at 5:03am PST

That’s a wrap: Best and worst of Hollywood’s biggest night

Team Birdman, led by director Alejandro González Iñárritu, accepts the Academy Award for Best Picture.

Well, that’s it. Months of movie-going, campaigning, and precursor awards, and now, it is all over. Birdman, a film that most predicted would win last night, did win, The Grand Budapest Hotel and Whiplash enjoyed good nights, as well, and Boyhood went home almost empty-handed. The show ended a few minutes after midnight here on the East Coast, something the producers always strive to avoid, but if you read on, I have a few suggestions on how to cut some time from the show – as I am sure you all might.

Click here to go to a full list of winners, and read on for Last Cinema Standing’s best and worst things about the 87th Academy Awards.

Best

The winners – People like to grouse about the nominees list every year for what missed out or sometimes for what got in, and those complaints are often valid. However, on the whole, when it comes to picking winners, the Academy does a marvelous job. Birdman is an unimpeachable Best Picture winner, Alejandro González Iñárritu is among the most deserving Best Director winners, and the film’s screenplay win delighted me to no end.

As much as I may have been pulling for other films and performances, it would be hard to argue with a winners list that includes Eddie Redmayne’s magnificent work as Stephen Hawking in The Theory of Everything, the great shorts Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1, The Phone Call, and Feast, and three well deserved citations for Whiplash.

Neil Patrick Harris – I try not to read any reviews of the show for a while after it ends because I like to decide what I think first. For whatever reason, I am rarely in the consensus, in that I tend to like the show. I do not know if that makes me really unhip or just less of a grouch than most people when it comes to the Oscars. Probably a little of both. I thought Harris was fun, funny, and swift, and he killed it with Anna Kendrick and Jack Black during the opening musical number written by last year’s Best Song winners Robert Lopez and Kristen Anderson-Lopez. I have a hard time believing Common and John Legend will be back to write next year’s opening number, though I would definitely tune in for that.

I liked the magic trick-style payoff to the predictions in the box, and it was fun watching a mostly befuddled Octavia Spencer play along. The seat-fillers bit was good, and really, once you know where to look, you cannot un-see those people. It was particularly jarring when after watching Redmayne and his wife together all night, Redmayne was on stage accepting his award for Best Actor, and someone else was sitting next to her. I thought Harris got in some good jokes, kept the show moving, and was a generally fun presence I would love to see come back.

The speeches – From Patricia Arquette winning Supporting Actress to John Legend and Common with Best Song and all the way up to Iñárritu when Birdman won Best Picture, the calls for equality rang loud and clear from the Dolby Theater last night. Arquette called for equal pay for women in the U.S. – something Meryl Streep clearly was on board with – while Common reminded us that what Martin Luther King Jr. fought for is still being fought for, and Iñárritu called for better treatment of immigrants in this nation. They were brave and important messages spoken by Hollywood’s brightest stars on its biggest stage. Good on them for using their platform to try to make a difference.

Beyond that, I loved watching Best Foreign Language Film winner Pawel Pawlikowsi talk straight through the crescendo of the play-off music and then just keep going. A couple winners did that last night, and why not? No one knows if they will ever be back, so let them soak up every last minute of it. Thankfully, no one’s microphone was cut off. If the night truly is about the winners, they should be allowed to speak, and the director and producers did a good job of letting that happen.

John Legend and Common perform “Glory” – Speaking of John Legend and Common, how about that performance of their original song “Glory” from Selma? It was a weighty moment, filled with meaning for millions across the world and many in the audience. It brought the audience in the Dolby Theater to its feet and had stars such as David Oyelowo and Chris Pine in tears. The performance will live on in Oscar history. To cap it with an Oscar win, well, how could you not vote for that song?

Worst

The Sound of Music tribute – What was that? A 50-year-old movie that most of the world has seen does not need a montage of non-descript clips and a lackluster musical performance. It would be one thing if the tribute performance had been memorable in any way, but Lady Gaga’s sedate medley of numbers from a fairly dusty musical just added to the inanity of it all.

They did this last year with the 75-year anniversary tribute to The Wizard of Oz, and it did not work then, either. A few years back, there was a tribute to movie musicals in general, which made no sense. Enough. We get it. Musical performances seem like they would make for a good show. They do not. This is neither the Grammys nor the Tony Awards. This is the Oscars. The opening musical number and the Best Song performances (see above) are plenty.

Post-In Memoriam performance – On that note, this is the second year in a row they have had the In Memoriam segment followed by a musical performance tribute. Last year was Bette Midler. This year was Jennifer Hudson. Neither year worked. As soon as the show ends, people complain about its length – and often, they do not wait that long. Doubling the running time of the In Memoriam segment does nothing to help that cause, particularly when an extra song actually distracts from the memory of those lost. Either sing under the montage or get rid of the song.

My predictions – Mea culpa. Every year, I go about predicting these things in completely the wrong way. I am always trying to beat everyone else by going with outside-the-box predictions for things that might happen. Well, that is not the way to do it. The consensus usually knows what is going to happen, and I either willfully ignore it or think I know better. No more. Next year, I’m going 24 for 24, guaranteed.

That’s a wrap

Thanks to those of you who have checked in these past few weeks and months to talk about films and indulge my hobby. I love this stuff. There is not a night I enjoy more than the Oscars, and I am glad you folks hung around these parts to share that with me. I am going to take a little time off here to recover, but I will be back soon with more reviews, more columns, and more talk about films I love that I hope you will love, too.

Totally accurate, 100 percent guaranteed Academy Awards predictions*

The big night is finally here, and Last Cinema Standing has spent the last two weeks trying to get you all prepared. It all comes down to this. What’s it going to be? Birdman or Boyhood? Richard Linklater or Alejandro González Iñárritu? Eddie Redmayne or Michael Keaton? Will American Sniper pull off a few surprises? Everything remains in flux until the envelopes are opened.

For now, here are Last Cinema Standing’s Totally Accurate, 100 Percent Guaranteed Academy Awards Predictions*. Click on any category to jump to a full breakdown of that categories nominees and check back after the show to see me return with my tail between my legs and admit just how many of these I got flat-out wrong.

*Offer not valid in the U.S. or greater solar system.

Picture

Will win: Boyhood

Should win: Selma

Director

Will win: Richard Linklater for Boyhood

Should win: Alejandro González Iñárritu for Birdman

Actor

Will win: Eddie Redmayne for The Theory of Everything

Should win: Michael Keaton for Birdman

Actress

Will win: Julianne Moore for Still Alice

Should win: Julianne Moore for Still Alice

Supporting Actor

Will win: JK Simmons for Whiplash

Should win: JK Simmons for Whiplash

Supporting Actress

Will win: Patricia Arquette for Boyhood

Should win: Emma Stone for Birdman

Original Screenplay

Will win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Should win: Birdman

Adapted Screenplay

Will win: The Theory of Everything

Should win: Inherent Vice

Cinematography

Will win: Birdman

Should win: Birdman

Editing

Will win: Boyhood

Should win: Boyhood

Production Design

Will win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Sound Editing

Will win: American Sniper

Should win: Interstellar

Sound Mixing

Will win: American Sniper

Should win: Birdman

Costume Design

Will win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Should win: Inherent Vice

Makeup and Hairstyling

Will win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Original Score

Will win: The Theory of Everything

Should win: Interstellar

Original Song

Will win: “Glory” from Selma

Should win: “Everything Is Awesome” from The Lego Movie

Visual Effects

Will win: Interstellar

Should win: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

Documentary

Will win: Citizenfour

Should win: Citizenfour

Foreign Language Film

Will win: Ida

Should win: Leviathan

Animated Feature**

Will win: How to Train Your Dragon 2

Should win: The Boxtrolls

Live Action Short

Will win: The Phone Call

Should win: Aya

Documentary Short

Will win: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1

Should win: Joanna

Animated Short

Will win: The Dam Keeper

Should win: The Dam Keeper

**This was the one category I did not break down in my Countdown to the Oscars previews because I have only seen two of the five nominees. Perhaps those of you with children can let me know what you thought of the rest – or those of you who just really enjoy animation. No judgments here at Last Cinema Standing.

Predicted big winners:

Boyhood – 4

The Grand Budapest Hotel – 4

The Theory of Everything – 3

American Sniper – 2

Countdown to the Oscars: Best Picture

Birdman, starring Michael Keaton, is the frontrunner for Best Picture at tonight's Academy Awards.

Each day as we make our way to the Academy Awards ceremony Feb. 22, Last Cinema Standing will take an in-depth look at each of the categories, sorting out the highs, the lows, and everything in between. Check back right here for analysis, predictions, and gripes as we inch toward the Dolby Theater and that world-famous red carpet.

Best Picture

The nominees are:

American Sniper

Birdman

Boyhood

The Grand Budapest Hotel

The Imitation Game

Selma

The Theory of Everything

Whiplash

It would be difficult for this year’s Academy Awards to top last year’s for me, just from an awards perspective. After more than a decade of closely following the Oscar race, seeing 12 Years a Slave win Best Picture was one of the most exciting things I have ever seen on the show. Just thinking about it still gives me chills – but 12 Years a Slave is a once-in-a-generation movie. For a film like that not only to get into the Oscar race but to triumph in Best Picture, that does not happen every year. It cannot happen every year.

What we have, then, is a group of fine films, and several of these would make handsome winners, the kind the Academy will be able to look back on fondly. These eight films share little in common, covering a wide variety of subjects and characters – from history makers to artists to ordinary people in extraordinary situations and ordinary people in ordinary situations. There are biopics, war films, and prestige pictures of the kind we normally associate with the Academy, and there are small-scale fantasies and fables that found an audience outside the art house this year.

Some have called this a weak year for Oscar films, but the eclecticism of this group of nominees speaks directly to how patently absurd that is. Sure, there are more deserving films that have been left on the sidelines, but not one of these will go down as an embarrassment when the history books are opened and the year in film is reconsidered. The Academy can be proud of this group – and of course, so can the responsible filmmakers – and that alone is something to cheer about. A case could be made for any of these winning – and that is what we will try to do below – but it really comes down to two films: Birdman or Boyhood.

Birdman (directed by Alejandro González Iñárritu) – All signs point to Birdman, and particularly after its coronation at the Independent Spirit Awards last night, this seems like a foregone conclusion. If that is true, you will get no complaints from me. It is a formally daring, technically impressive film with great performances, sharp wit, and a strong point of view on the world we inhabit. About an aging actor who just wants to make art raging against the Hollywood system that has produced endless sequels and superhero films, you could see why the industry might embrace Birdman.

Riggan Thompson (Michael Keaton) stands in for all of the voters who got into this game for the love of the art and have watched as the industry is corrupted by money and rots from the inside out. He speaks for them when he talks about passion for the work and respect and adulation and the desire to make something that lasts. So much of what Hollywood produces is ephemeral. It matters today and means nothing tomorrow. Thompson is fighting a losing battle against the transitory nature of the business.

No one wants to be left behind, and that includes Oscar voters, so why would they not vote for the film that speaks most directly to them?

Boyhood (directed by Richard Linklater) – If feels like we have lived with Boyhood for a long time. After The Grand Budapest Hotel, Linklater’s low-key coming-of-age drama was released the longest ago of the Best Picture nominees, hitting theaters back in July last year. Still, no one has lived with it longer than Linklater. His dedication to the project has been remarkable, filming over a dozen years, shooting concurrently with a number of his other projects, and remaining squarely focused on one goal: to tell the story of what it is like to be a young boy growing up in America.

It has been a long road for the film from its inception to its filming to its release to nominations morning. For the most part, that road comes to an end tonight in the Dolby Theater. There is a very real possibility that road ends with Linklater holding two Oscars for producing and directing Boyhood. It would be a fitting image, something like finding a pot of gold at the end of a rainbow. He could just as easily win neither award, but hey, at least we all still have the rainbow.

The Grand Budapest Hotel (directed by Wes Anderson) – What makes The Grand Budapest Hotel different from any of Anderson’s other movies? It is a question I have wrestled with throughout this Oscar season. It is critically beloved, sure, but so are many of his films. Anderson fans have embraced as they would be expected to, but less expected, for me at least, has been its tremendous awards run, which I fully believe will continue tonight. It will not win Best Picture, but I would call it the frontrunner in at least five of the nine categories in which it is nominated.

If it wins five awards, that will be the biggest haul of the night, and I can envision a world in which that will happen, but I still do not get it. It is a confectionary blend of Anderson-style whimsy and dollhouse design work that layers on top an allegory about World War II and fascism. I can only imagine voters feel its darker elements even out the sugary sweetness of it all. It is a fun romp, no doubt, and Ralph Fiennes’ leading performance is absolutely magnificent, but it is a far jump from there to the industry’s top award.

American Sniper (directed by Clint Eastwood) – If you ask the majority of folks on the street what will or should win Best Picture, they will tell you without hesitation American Sniper. It makes sense. To the movie-going public, this is the most popular, best film in the lineup. It is a box-office smash with more than $300 million in earnings, starring a huge international star and directed by a beloved Hollywood icon. It is a smart, well made war film with not a lot going against it, but it will not win.

American Sniper may have captured the public zeitgeist – and with an ongoing trial related to events depicted in the film, it is very much in the news – but the industry has not embraced it the way it otherwise might. Obviously, Warner Brothers would love to add “Best Picture winner” to all its advertising, but the studio’s victory is this film’s phenomenal financial success, not to mention its public adoration. It is certainly a threat for the win, but it would be a shocking upset to most pundits, if not to viewers.

The Theory of Everything (directed by James Marsh) – Anchored by two brilliant leading performances, both nominated tonight, The Theory of Everything is a tribute to the kind of love it takes to overcome any obstacles and how difficult that truly is to achieve in real life. The story of Stephen and Jane Hawking is one of passion and struggle but also of inspiration and perseverance. The movie makes it clear that while Stephen Hawking is a rightly renowned physicist and mathematician, both he and his wife are extraordinary people.

When the Oscar race began this season, it was easy to compare The Theory of Everything to The Imitation Game, given their similar, Awards-baiting premises and obvious sight-unseen merit. To the surprise of many, however, The Theory of Everything has been the more beloved story, even beating out The Imitation Game for best British film at the British Academy of Film and Television awards. The reason seems pretty clear. While the Alan Turing biopic holds its audience at a distance, Marsh’s film seems like it is pulling viewers in to embrace them. It would be hard not to embrace it back.

Whiplash (directed by Damien Chazelle) – Festival hits have a tendency to die quick deaths. They can look like a breakout hit one minute, then as soon as the next shiny object comes along for admiration, they are no more. Whiplash was the talk of the town at Sundance in 2014, and now, more than a year later, it remains as much in the conversation as ever. Since Little Miss Sunshine broke through in 2006, Sundance has been a launching pad for independent films into the Best Picture race. No Sundance film has won the top prize yet, and Whiplash will not be the first, but by any measure, Chazelle’s film has been a success.

What is remarkable is that while no one believes the film has a shot at Best Picture, myself included, Whiplash is legitimately in the mix for each of the four other awards for which it is nominated. JK Simmons will win Best Supporting Actor. It would not be surprising for Chazelle to take Best Adapted Screenplay. The editing has seen support from a number of different awards bodies, and musicals always have a chance in Best Sound Mixing. Something else will be named Best Picture, but it will not be shocking if Whiplash comes away feeling like the night’s big winner.

The Imitation Game (directed by Morten Tyldum) – Early in the season, The Imitation Game was picked as the frontrunner for Best Picture, and why not? It checks all the boxes we think of when we think of prestige, Academy Award-winning movies. It is a true story about a great historical figure and his accomplishments set during World War II. It features a lot of fancy design work and some great performances, and it closes with an important social message. Audiences have taken to it both at festivals, where it has won a number of audience awards, and at the box office, where it has earned an impressive $159 million worldwide.

However, it now finds itself trailing in this race, not only behind the frontrunners but behind several other second-tier candidates. So, what happened? I would say that the film just is not that good, but that is a subjective and only semi-defensible position. The film did garner eight nominations, behind only Birdman and The Grand Budapest Hotel. There is obviously support for it. Backed by The Weinstein Company and one of the best Oscar strategy teams in the business, the success has been getting a good-but-not-good-enough movie this far in the race.

Selma (directed by Ava DuVernay) – To me, Selma was the best American film of the year. Of these nominees, it is the most deserving winner, but it will not be getting anywhere near the Dolby Theater stage. If it were to win, it would constitute one of the biggest upsets in Oscar history. That is not hyperbole. The numbers back that up. The victory, then, is that the film made it into the Best Picture lineup at all, which is nothing to sneeze at. The love is there, just not enough

Sadly, Selma got caught up in a political firestorm both before and after the nominations. Amid its release and subsequent critical acclaim, conservative talking heads blasted the film for its supposed historical inaccuracies. After the film was mostly shut out at the Oscars, liberal pundits lambasted the Academy for racism and elitism, a furor that spawned the ubiquitous #OscarsSoWhite hashtag. It has been a political and cultural hot potato all season, which is unfortunate.

If audiences could get beyond all the noise on both sides of the issue and simply see the film, they would find an unparalleled artistic achievement announcing the arrival of a bold, brilliant new voice in cinema. DuVernay’s film deserves to stand on its own, apart from all the commotion caused by forces beyond its makers’ control. That does not seem possible now, but in a few years, when we have long forgotten the controversy, Selma will be ripe for rediscovery. Then, it will take its place in the pantheon.

The final analysis

The numbers say Birdman, and it is really hard to get away from that. A film that many pundits thought would be divisive in the industry has proven to be anything but. In truth, based on guild awards and insider talk, Birdman is one of the most broadly popular movies since Slumdog Millionaire won eight Oscars in 2008. Even in categories where it is not nominated such as Art Direction, Score, and Editing, it has support. It is a widely liked film that remarkably few have anything bad to say about, but I cannot shake the feeling that Boyhood will triumph.

I have little to go on to support that assertion except the immense critical praise lavished on Boyhood and the fact that it won the Golden Globe for best drama and the BAFTA for best film. Thanks to the preferential balloting system, which requires voters to list their choices from favorite to least favorite, movies that can be loved by many and liked by most have the best shot at winning this award. To me, that describes Boyhood. Either could win, and neither would shock me, but recent history suggests Academy members vote with their hearts, not their heads. As smart and well made as Birdman is, Boyhood feels like the heart vote.

Will win: Boyhood

Should win: Selma

Wish it had been here: Leviathan